Can renewed Saudi-Iran diplomacy lead to peace in Yemen?

The China-brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran on 10 March have raised optimism that reverberations may also be felt throughout Yemen, which has been a critical point throughout the two countries’ bitter rivalry.

Indicating the importance of resolving Yemen’s conflict for the two regional heavyweights, the Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan said Riyadh’s priority was now to, “find a way to have a permanent ceasefire in Yemen.”

Importantly, Iran promised it would stop arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels as part of the deal. This also followed a statement from the Iranian mission to the UN that the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, “would accelerate the ceasefire, help start a national dialogue, and form an inclusive national government in Yemen.”

While this diplomatic breakthrough might be a starting point towards ending Yemen’s war, which has just entered its ninth year, more considerations need to be taken to end long-term violence.

"Yemenis are cautiously optimistic that this could be the beginning of the end of the war that has torn the country apart for years"

The Houthi rebels reacted to the Saudi-Iran accord, portraying China’s role in facilitating the talks as a defeat for what described as US and Israeli imperialism – something the faction have long touted to justify their war efforts in Yemen’s conflict.

The group didn’t express praise for the move as an opportunity for a power-sharing government, meaning the latest developments alone will not alter the Houthis’ attitudes immediately.

Even after the announcement, the Houthi movement continued using violence in Marib as it seeks to strengthen its grasp over the contested Hadi-run governorate. While Iran has supported the Houthis and their military campaign, the faction has its own agenda and is not simply an Iran proxy – even though popular narratives have depicted it as being so.

Even so, Iran does have some political sway over Houthis, as relations between the two have consolidated as the conflict has progressed. Indeed, as the Houthis have boosted their control over the country’s north, Tehran has established diplomatic missions to the Houthis, seemingly recognising their de-facto control in Yemen.  

Moreover, the US, UK and French navies have reported increasing seizures of Iranian vessels with weapons that were headed to Yemen over the past years, showing Tehran’s military support has become more pronounced.

Yemenis are cautiously optimistic that this could be the beginning of the end of the war that has torn the country apart for years.

“The positive side of this agreement is that it may push the Yemeni parties to speed up understanding and realising the regional goals of their supporters and that they have goals that do not serve their own interests and at the expense of Yemen's interests and the independence of the Yemeni people,” Nabil al-Bokairi, a Yemeni researcher based in Istanbul, told The New Arab.

Al-Bokairi also highlighted that the conflict has been inflamed by regional competition for influence in Yemen. He argued that in the longer term, the Saudi-Iran pact could improve hopes of reducing Yemen’s domestic tensions. 

“These diplomatic initiatives should help Yemeni factions think carefully about the interests of the Yemeni people and move away from being dependent on the regional parties that are fighting on Yemeni soil for their interests and not the interests of Yemen, namely Iran, the [Saudi] Kingdom and the UAE.”

“The fact that both countries have expressed a willingness to work together to find a solution to the Yemen conflict is a positive sign,” Ahmed Algohbary, a Yemeni activist, told The New Arab.

“But the behaviour of the warring parties, for example, remains a major concern. Both sides have been accused of human rights violations, and there are serious concerns about the humanitarian crisis in the country. These issues are complex and cannot be easily resolved through diplomatic discussions alone,” he added.

The Saudi-Iran rapprochement came among other positive developments, including the warring parties agreeing to a prisoner exchange in Geneva, after talks began on 11 March.

"UN-led talks have often been fixated on repairing the fractures between the Hadi government and Houthis, which may inadvertently further split up the country in the long term"

The Houthis said they would release 181 detainees, including 15 Saudis, in exchange for 706 prisoners to be freed by the Hadi government. It is important to note that during the 2018 talks in Stockholm, the target for releasing prisoners was over 15,000, showing more focus would be needed on achieving this.

Moreover, conflict-ending talks would need to engage the southern issue, particularly as analysts have warned against freezing out the pro-south Yemen independence groups like the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC).

UN-led talks have often been fixated on repairing the fractures between the Hadi government and Houthis, which may inadvertently further split up the country in the long term.

And although the Hadi government and STC have attempted to form a unity government, the presence that the UAE has built in the south through supporting the separatist faction has added more tensions.

There is also the issue of the Saudi-imposed land, air and sea blockade of Yemen’s ports, imposed in late 2017. While it has exacerbated Yemen’s humanitarian crisis further, the Houthis have also used this to justify further attacks on Saudi territory and across Yemen.

While the blockade has prevented peace, the Houthis have also restricted the operations of some international aid groups – citing distrust of international organisations while also smuggling aid amongst themselves, meaning it is the Yemeni people who have suffered the most.

Indeed, lifting the blockade would have to come alongside wider peace talks since Saudi Arabia used security concerns from the Houthis to justify imposing the blockade, showing the importance of accelerating diplomacy for the country.

However, Mohammad al-Rumim, a Yemeni journalist from Taiz city, expresses doubts that the Houthis will abide by peace initiatives.

“We all hope the talks can lead to peace. But in past bilateral talks, the Houthis have often not abided by their commitments and agreements with the internationally recognized government,” he told The New Arab.

“Even if there is a future political process with a unity government, there will still be some fears over whether the Houthis will permanently respect it,” al-Rumim added.  “After all, they believe they have a God-given right to rule over others and they don’t respect human rights, democracy and other rights under humanitarian and international law.”

US Special Envoy to Yemen Timothy Lenderking visited Yemen the week following the Saudi-Iran pact, hoping to push peace further between the factions. The fact China was able to out-manoeuvre the US in brokering talks between Tehran and Riyadh may now prompt Washington to assert its influence and take a more active role in Yemen.

The growing framework for peace initiatives to take place and more discussions to be held, coupled with a sense of battle-weariness following eight years of war, mean that more opportunities to bring warring sides to talk with one another can be expected.

“It is important to remain realistic about the challenges that lie ahead. The international community must continue to work together to address the many complex issues that are contributing to the conflict in Yemen,” said Algohbary.

So, while the talks between the regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran are a positive indicator for Yemen, more work would need to be done to ensure they follow up on their commitments for peace.

Meanwhile, the other regional and domestic dynamics that threaten the country’s long-term stability and the underlying causes of the conflict must be prioritised.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey