Egypt likely to face 'serious repercussions' if leak on rockets for Russia is true: experts

While an Egyptian official denied a leak by The Washington Post that Egypt had purportedly planned to covertly supply arms to Russia, several analysts in the country believe that in case such claims turn out to be true, the North African country will likely face "serious repercussions."

Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi allegedly intended to produce 40,000 rockets for the heavily-sanctioned Russia and instructed his aides to keep it a secret to "avoid problems with the West", the Washington Post reported on Monday, citing a leaked US intelligence document.

At a late hour on the same day, an official Egyptian source was quoted by the local Al-Qahera News TV channel as denying the leak, saying it was "false" and "baseless."

"Egypt follows a balanced policy with all international parties, with peace, stability and development being the main determinants of such policy," the source said, in reference to the more than one-year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been one of Sisi's early supporters even before he assumed the presidency in 2014.

The information detailed in the report has been derived from a trove of images of classified files posted in February and March on Discord, a chat app popular with gamers, the paper said, without attaching screenshots of the documents in question in the article.

In February 2020, Egypt announced a three-year plan to develop the production of arms and ammunition by the companies affiliated with the Ministry of State for Military Production, with a total investment of about 7.5 billion Egyptian pounds.

Political experts, meanwhile, are not optimistic about the consequences.

"Sisi has already been at odds with the administration of US president Joe Biden due to Egypt’s human rights record as well as his controversial ties with China and Russia," said a Cairo University professor of political science, on condition of anonymity.  

"If proven right, the leaked information will make the situation worse for Sisi as it will show the regime before the US and other world powers as a supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, most probably resulting in financial as well as political sanctions against Egypt," the professor said to The New Arab.

Egypt is one of the US's closest allies in the Middle East and receives over $US 1 billion annually in military aid from the US.

At the same time, local and international rights groups have long criticised the human rights situation in the country under Sisi, saying there are currently at least 60,000 political prisoners and regime critics behind bars.

A high-profile political analyst, who also declined to be named, does not rule out the authenticity of the leaked document, though, believing that "such details…could indicate the hypocrisy of the regime."

"Most probably the official, quoted by the Egyptian news channel, just attempted to amend the image of the regime at a time when it had publically maintained a neutral stance towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict to just appease the West," the expert added to TNA.