Why did Turkey lift its veto on Sweden's NATO membership?

Istanbul, Turkey - At the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Turkey announced it is ready to ratify Sweden's membership to the Western alliance - a year after the Nordic country, alongside Finland, had applied in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

The move follows months of wrangling over Sweden's alleged harbouring of militant groups, and Turkey's demands that Sweden extradites dozens of people amid calls for a crackdown on Kurdish separatists.

Tensions were exacerbated by Quran-burning protests by far-right activists, which the Swedish government has condemned but says it has to allow according to its freedom of expression and assembly laws. Sweden has opened an investigation for hate speech against the man of Iraqi origin who was responsible for the latest prominent incident.

"Erdogan is recalibrating Turkish foreign policy, trying to charm Western markets and investors that Turkey is a safe place, and proof of that is that Turkish-NATO ties are improving"

While Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to move forward with Sweden's NATO accession, the Turkish parliament – which has to ratify the decision - is in recess until 1 October.

Viktor Orban's Hungary also announced it was ready to greenlight Sweden's accession, removing the last two obstacles to Sweden's bid to become the 32nd member of the transatlantic alliance.

At the summit in Vilnius, where leaders met for the fourth time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine – previously, NATO summits took place once a year – Erdogan's decision was hailed as a breakthrough.

Leaders, who fell short of agreeing to a path for Ukraine's membership of the alliance, were able to claim “unity” over the prospect of Sweden ending its era of military non-alignment.

“This is Turkey being transactionalist,” Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, told The New Arab.

“Erdogan is recalibrating Turkish foreign policy, trying to charm Western markets and investors that Turkey is a safe place, and proof of that is that Turkish-NATO ties are improving,” he added.

In a move that surprised many observers, Erdogan linked Sweden's NATO bid to Turkey's membership in the European Union, calling on its leaders to “open the way” for Turkey. Accession talks, which began during Erdogan's first term as prime minister in 2005, have stalled for years as relations between Turkey and some members of the bloc soured. 

A European Commission spokesperson said in response that NATO membership and EU enlargement were "separate processes".

“What Turkey demands is not the EU accession process,” says Salim Cevik, a Researcher at the Center for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

“[Erdogan] wants to bring the relation with the EU out to the table as well,” Cevik told The New Arab. “So what he wants is not a renegotiation with the Americans only, but the Americans and the Europeans. That renegotiation is essential around economic issues, and modernisation of the customs union is number one.”

Turkey has been grappling with a severe economic and cost of living crisis that has seen the value of the Turkish lira plunge by more than 70 percent in the last two years. According to official data, inflation currently stands at around 40 percent, down from 80 percent late last year. Independent economists say it is much higher.

"Erdogan wants to create a re-orientation with the West, to underline that Turkey belongs to the Western geopolitical system"

Most economists have blamed the crisis on the Turkish president's unorthodox economic policies based on interest rate cuts. After Erdogan's re-election last May, the government made a U-turn and hiked the interest rate from 8.5 to 15 percent – but that wasn't enough to restore market confidence, as the lira plunged to new record lows shortly afterwards.

“Erdogan sees the economy is in terrible shape, and he can't solve this problem while fighting with the West,” Cevik says. “In a way, what Erdogan has in mind is an improved version of what Morocco or Egypt have with Europe: let's not talk about domestic politics, but cooperate on security and economic issues.”

Just hours after Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden's NATO bid, the US signalled it will move forward with the sale of F16 fighter jets to Turkey, which Congress has been opposing.

A weaker ally

Leaders in Vilnius also approved NATO's first defence plans since the Cold War, including guidance for member nations to upgrade their forces and logistics, as well as a blueprint for how NATO members would respond to a Russian attack.

While the alliance fell short of offering Ukraine a formal invitation to join NATO, the Turkish president once again surprised by declaring his support for Ukraine joining the alliance.

“Without a doubt, Ukraine deserves to be in NATO,” Erdogan said after a meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the end of which he flew home with five Azov commanders that had been in Turkey as part of a prisoners' swap. The move naturally angered Russia.

Turkey has been playing a “balancing act” by maintaining economic ties with Russia while not joining Western sanctions and supporting Ukraine politically and militarily.

Eastern European countries are in favour of offering Kyiv a road map to join NATO, while others such as Germany and the US are concerned the move could take the alliance closer to war with Russia. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine will not become a member while war still rages in the country.

“Turkey was always supporting Ukraine,” Cevik says, “but making this announcement is underlining its position, which might antagonise Putin,” he added, explaining that one of the reasons why Erdogan feels he has more leverage in his relations with Putin is the recent Wagner uprising, which weakened the Russian president.

“Erdogan wants to create a re-orientation with the West, to underline that Turkey belongs to the Western geopolitical system.”

Ylenia Gostoli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Turkey. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict across the Middle East and Europe. Her work on refugees, migration and human trafficking has won awards and grants

Follow her on Twitter: @YleniaGostoli