What do Super Tuesday results mean for the US 2024 election?

On Tuesday, millions of US voters from across 15 states and one US territory took to the polls in what is considered a pivotal set of primaries in the trajectory of the 2024 general election.

Historically, Super Tuesday has been the point at which the presidential candidates from both parties are chosen after voting in some of the biggest states with the highest delegate count of any election day.

This year, however, saw almost no suspense in who would be their party's contender, with Tuesday's election essentially solidifying President Biden and former president Donald Trump as their parties' nominees.

"This is the most mundane primary I've seen," Richard Groper, a lecturer in political science at California State University in Los Angeles, told The New Arab, as the largely predictable results were coming in on Tuesday.

This year's Super Tuesday states included: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

"This year's Super Tuesday election essentially solidified President Biden and former president Donald Trump as their parties' nominees"

At stake for both parties in this year's Super Tuesday are 865 delegates for Republicans and 1,420 for Democrats.

Several races got more attention than others. Nationwide, the biggest spotlight was on the Republican presidential primary between former President Donald Trump and his former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, which will likely determine whether or not she continues her run.

She won a surprise victory in Vermont on Tuesday, and days earlier had won the District of Columbia, Washington, DC.

But like many other observers, Groper is unclear as to why Haley has continued to stay in the race despite not winning any major state races.

"She has absolutely no chance of winning. No one knows why she's staying. Maybe she's setting up a launch for 2028, or maybe she's betting to bank delegates in case Trump runs into legal complications," he said. 

Even if she is sitting on the sidelines in case Trump is unable to run, Groper and other analysts who spoke with TNA believe that the party establishment would likely rally around someone more viable for the general election against Biden.

Another aspect of the presidential primaries is the growing disapproval of Biden, largely over his handling of Israel's war in Gaza.

"It's a tough issue. Part of his base is very supportive of Israel. He's got to thread that needle, and I'm not sure if he can," Paul Beck, professor emeritus at Ohio State University, told TNA. "He's going in that direction. He's edging away from total support of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu."

Despite Biden's recent cautious criticism of Netanyahu, which is for many progressives far from sufficient, Beck predicts he will nevertheless be depicted as anti-Israel.

"Republicans will try to make as much hay as they can that Biden is not supportive of Israel, which isn't true," he said. "Trump is saying this wouldn't be happening with him."

As Biden continues to face threats to his re-election bid from public outrage over his support for Netanyahu's war in Gaza, the Israeli leader himself is possibly feeling his own domestic pressure.

"My own guess is that Netanyahu is fighting for his own political life. If he were to concede anything, even a ceasefire, he would lose support from his right wing, a very important part of his constituency," said Beck.

Biden, meanwhile, essentially needs to court constituents who support both sides of the conflict.

"Another aspect of the presidential primaries is the growing disapproval of Biden, largely over his handling of Israel's war in Gaza"

The recent "uncommitted" vote in Michigan of more than 100,000, earning the movement two delegates for the Democratic National Convention in August, has been an inspiration for other states. 

In Tuesday's race, Democratic voters in Minnesota, with a high population of Muslim Somalis, saw around 45,000 "uncommitted" votes cast, beating out Biden opponent and Minnesotan Dean Phillips. It garnered international headlines and has possibly been a catalyst for a recent shift in US rhetoric on Israel's continued bombing and restriction on humanitarian aid in Gaza.

Can the movement be replicated beyond Michigan and Minnesota? Veteran pollster and president of the Arab American Institute, James Zogby, doesn't expect to see similar results in other states where the concentrations of Arabs and Muslims are not as high. However, he believes these states have sent an important message. 

"The amount it takes to turn undecideds into voters is a lot," he told TNA. "The message has been sent."

Aside from the presidential primaries, a closely watched state race was the California US Senate primary, which in recent weeks turned into a three-way race between Democratic Representative Adam Schiff - who got an early endorsement by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - Representative Katie Porter, a progressive known for her whiteboard presentations on corporate greed on the House floor, and Republican Steve Garvey, a former professional baseball player.

Trailing in the polls for fourth place was Barbara Lee, one of the first US Congress members to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, whose campaign struggled to get off the ground.

Controversially, Schiff, who came in first place at the end of the day, repeatedly invoked Garvey's name in campaign ads and fliers, elevating the political profile of a candidate who came into the race with little funding. Some voters who received Schiff's election literature said they wondered if it was from him or Garvey.

"Schiff edged out his competition. It was a really crafty move. But it's an old playbook," said Groper.

Indeed, it's not an uncommon tactic for one party to elevate the more extreme candidate from the opposing party, particularly centrist Democrats, in hopes that it will make it easier for them to beat their opponent.

In 2016, many Democrats encouraged the once-unthinkable candidate for president, Donald Trump.

Brooke Anderson is The New Arab's correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business, and culture.

Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenews