Domino effect: France's disintegrating influence in Africa

Former French colonies in Africa are swiftly becoming known for their frequent military coups. Gabon has become the latest French-speaking African country where the army has seized control, following Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Chad.

Following the announcement of the election result in Gabon on 26 August, the Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba was set to continue his 14-year rule, extending his family’s 56-year-long grip on the country.

However, the military junta that took control of the government, labelling themselves as members of the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI), said that the recent presidential election did not meet the criteria for a transparent, credible, and inclusive ballot, leading to the severe political crisis we are witnessing today.

To gain support for the coup, the junta announced that Ondimba’s regime had made “irresponsible, unforeseeable governance that has resulted in the steady degradation of social cohesion, which risks leading the country to chaos.”

"As a result of these coups, France has seen a significant decline in its political alliances, military engagements, and economic agreements in the Sahel region"

Coup after coup 

The general reasons for the coups that have been occurring in the Sahel region since 2020, starting with Mali, stem from poverty, ineffective governance, significant French interference, disparities in resource distribution, security concerns, and the government’s inability to deal with the threat of terrorism.

“The coup in Gabon seems to be stemming from different reasons than the coups in the Sahel region in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger,” said Fidel Amakye Owusu, a Ghanaian international relations and security analyst and the CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, to The New Arab. 

According to Owusu, while the coup in Gabon was allegedly to bring cohesion and end the electoral crisis instigated by the Ali Bongo government, the coups in the Sahel region were driven mainly by security concerns. 

As a result of these coups, France has seen a significant decline in its political alliances, military engagements, and economic agreements in the Sahel region.

However, Owusu says, unlike in the Sahel region, “France is not much of an antagonist in the eyes of the junta in Gabon. Therefore, the effect of the coup in Gabon on France will be different from what is unfolding in the Sahel. French businesses and interests are more likely to remain intact.”

The trends of coups have been worrying the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in general and particularly some West African countries prone to coups.

Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire are at the top of the list, with Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara in power since 2010 and Senegal’s Macky Sall since 2012. Both are facing accusations of imprisoning their opponents.

Since the coup in Niger on 26 July, ECOWAS’s concern regarding the potential domino effect of these coups has grown. The organisation has made efforts to leverage its diminishing regional influence to reinstate the ousted president, Mohamad Bazoum, but with no success.

The head of ECOWAS, who also serves as the Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, pledged upon assuming the chairmanship that he would not tolerate another coup, expressing his desire to prevent ECOWAS from becoming a “toothless bulldog.”

However, despite having the support of France, neither diplomatic nor military measures have yielded a resolution. And now, with the coup in Gabon, it has become one coup too many for the region and for the bloc.

The collapse of French influence

Since 1990, 78% of the 27 coups in West Africa have taken place in Francophone states. This is not a coincidence, as French policies, ignorance of public demands, and support for corrupt leaders have contributed to these results.

France has historical ties with most African countries dating back to its colonial history in the region. After colonisation ended, these ties morphed into contracts designed to safeguard France’s interests in the area.

Through these agreements, France has established defence pacts that grant it a unique level of influence. France’s engagement in Africa is driven by resource access, regional stability, and economic interests aimed at protecting its investments on the continent.

On top of that, seven out of the nine West African Francophone nations continue to use the CFA franc, a currency pegged to the Euro and backed by France, a legacy of France’s economic policies during its colonial era.

"The continent is crucial to French interests, and to secure these interests Paris often backed corrupt puppet leaders, who received aid in exchange for benefiting the French state"

Largely in the name of counterterrorism, France keeps a significant military presence in former colonies like Chad and Niger, aimed at ensuring strategic military bases, access to energy resources, and trade deals in Africa.

The continent is crucial to French interests, and to secure these interests Paris often backed corrupt puppet leaders, who received aid in exchange for benefiting the French state.

“The French post-colonial arrangement with its West African former colonies has been domineering and portrayed a picture of these countries not being truly independent,” said Owusu.

“France has for decades virtually determined who survived in office,” he added.

With the coup in Mali in 2020, it became evident that France’s lasting influence in West Africa was in danger. Yet, arrogance on both sides has hindered genuine diplomatic discussions that could have paved the way for reconciliation.

On the contrary, both sides have engaged in making inflammatory political statements that have resulted in a complete breakdown of relations, especially between Mali and France, leading to the cancellation of military agreements and the withdrawal of French and European counter-terrorism operations.

In a bid to save its waning influence, France attempted some policy changes, but the reputational damage was already done.

“The Macron government has made some foreign policy amendments that partially relieve these states from decades-old post-colonial arrangements. These have included loosening the financial apron strings of these states to France. Also, France has insisted on not tolerating corrupt leaders who loot these areas and stash them in France and other European states,” explained Owusu.

In October 2021, French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the New Africa-France Summit aimed at promoting more direct and open dialogue between France and its former colonies. However, the results were limited, suggesting it was too late to make amends. 

Shifting public sentiment 

Like other African countries where coups have occurred, the capital of Gabon, Libreville, has also witnessed supporting protests in favour of the military coup.

In a video that seems to have been recorded while held in his residence, ousted President Bongo Ondimba urged the public to rally in his support. However, rather than complying with his call, crowds poured onto the streets of the capital, singing the national anthem as they celebrated the coup against his regime.

These post-coup pro-military protests are becoming a noticeable trend in West Africa, suggesting that coup leaders enjoy substantial public support. Protesters have also expressed clear anti-French sentiments and, in many cases, called for cooperation with Russia instead.

Even before these coups, protesting against French presence was a recurrent theme in the region. On social media, negative sentiment towards France was already widespread.

"While it is still unclear how the official dynamic between France and Francophone African states will develop in light of recent political upheavals, it is evident that France has lost its foothold in the region"

However, France has turned a blind eye to the public demand, believing that its strong relationship with ruling regimes was enough to sustain its presence and influence

Analysts say that this underestimation of negative public sentiment against France is the reason Paris ignored any chance to rethink its policies and outreach campaigns.

“The recent attacks on French entities, demonstrations against the French presence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as well as incidents like the looting of French stores in Dakar in March 2021, have raised concerns about widespread anti-French sentiments in West Africa,” explained Owusu.

“The majority of youth in the region do not want to have anything to do with France. These youths are willing to potentially sacrifice their freedoms in exchange for toppling French-supported regimes, and the military juntas are aware of this, consequently exploiting them,” he continued.

The global superpower that stands to gain the most from rising hostility towards France is Russia. Moscow has grown its presence across the African continent in recent years, learning from the mistakes of the French and tailoring its discourse to position itself as an anti-imperialist ally.

While it is still unclear how the official dynamic between France and Francophone African states will develop in light of recent political upheavals, it is evident that France has lost its foothold in the region and has failed to win over the public.

While regional powers attempt to end the domino effect of the coups, all eyes should be on signs of unrest in Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, which are prone to political changes and have a history of political volatility.

Aman Al Bezreh is a trilingual journalist, a media training consultant at OpenDemocracy, and a security analyst for West Africa and the Sahel. 

Follow her on Twitter: @AmanBezreh