With President Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) at the helm in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s foreign policy has become increasingly independent and activist.
As a leader who balances Abu Dhabi between larger powers while playing off their rivalries and tensions, MbZ has carefully navigated the world’s increasingly multipolar landscape.
The UAE views its partnership with Russia as extremely important. The latest Pentagon leaks shed further light on how close Abu Dhabi and Moscow have become at a time in which Russia is actively working to undermine US hegemony in multiple parts of the world.
One of the documents bearing top-secret marking, which the Associated Press viewed, said that American spies discovered Russian intelligence officers bragging about their success in convincing the UAE “to work together against US and UK intelligence agencies”.
The same document stated, “The UAE probably views engagement with Russian intelligence as an opportunity to strengthen growing ties between Abu Dhabi and Moscow and diversify intelligence partnerships amid concerns of US disengagement from the region”.
The latest Pentagon leaks further underscore the extent to which the UAE has made itself a useful actor to Vladimir Putin’s government.
The nature of Russia-UAE relations is well known and was made particularly clear in the aftermath of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine beginning in February 2022.
By allowing Russian oligarchs and Kremlin-linked figures to park their wealth in the UAE while abstaining from a US-drafted UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia for invasion of Ukraine at the earliest stage of the war, the UAE has helped Moscow weather Western pressure since Russia’s overt invasion of Ukraine 14 months ago.
According to one US Treasury Department official, “between June and November of 2022, UAE companies exported over USD 5 million worth of US-origin, US-export controlled goods to Russia, including but not limited to semiconductor devices, some of which can be used on the battlefield”.
The UAE’s role in driving Gulf Arab efforts to shore up the Syrian government amid President Bashar al-Assad’s period of rehabilitation on the regional level also illustrates how Abu Dhabi’s agendas have served Moscow’s interests in the Middle East.
Additionally, another leaked document seen by the media describes how the UAE has been in negotiations with a Russian company to set up a regional maintenance centre for Emirati weapons.
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Confirming what everyone already knew
“In terms of the leaks, I’m not sure if we have anything qualitatively new here,” said Dr David Roberts, an Associate Professor at King’s College London, in an interview with The New Arab.
“Rather we have, I suppose, a reinforcement of trends that we have long seen and expected. We have the UAE actively…doing what it wants to do. It sees itself ever more as an avowedly independent state and it will not bow or necessarily follow any sort of directives of any other state - the US or whoever it might be. This is just more of that. I think that people in Washington [have] long [realised] the slowly changing nature of their relations with the UAE. I don’t think this will precipitate anything brand new.”
Colin P. Clarke, the director of policy and research at the Soufan Group, told TNA that “the UAE stands wherever it perceives the most benefit and above all, it’s clear that Abu Dhabi has no qualms about trying to play both sides of the fence, telling the US one thing but doing another and working with Russia despite the barbarity we’ve witnessed in Ukraine”.
The UAE's role in an anti-hegemonic axis
Russia has for years envisioned a future in which Moscow and Beijing lead an anti-hegemonic axis geared toward reducing Washington’s power on the international stage, making the world more multipolar and much less West-centric. Russian officials have sought to bring the UAE and other historically Western-aligned Arab states such as Saudi Arabia into this axis.
It is hardly a point of debate that the UAE is willing to cooperate with Russia in some instances when doing so undermines US foreign policy interests. For Abu Dhabi, this is a rational approach mindful of the extent to which Washington’s influence in the Middle East has been weakening, giving the UAE an incentive to develop stronger partnerships with Moscow and Beijing.
“There are a number of recent actions in the Middle East that lead me to conclude that, whether or not the United States ever pivots to Asia, there is a palpable sense among countries in the region, that Washington’s influence is on the decline and there are other players worth cosying up to, namely China and Russia,” Clarke told TNA.
“Accordingly, I expect Beijing and Moscow to continue to work closely with Egypt, UAE, Iran, and other countries in the region in an effort to reduce US and Western influence in the Middle East in both the short and long term,” added Clarke.
Clearly, while the US leadership depicts the Ukraine war as a black-and-white conflict in which good is fighting evil, the UAE (like most Arab states) rejects this presentation of the conflict.
Determined to advance its own national interests while asserting greater autonomy from Washington and other Western capitals, the UAE values its friendship with Russia while many ideational synergies between Abu Dhabi and Moscow contribute to their strengthening partnership.
The Emirati view has become that in many ways it is far easier for the UAE to work with Russia and China than with the US and European countries.
“I think by in large we’re seeing the Emiratis become more independent from the US security umbrella, more activist in their foreign policy,” Dr Courtney Freer, a fellow at Emory University, told TNA.
“We talked about this more in 2014 with Yemen and 2017 with the blockade [of Qatar]. But this is a trend that is likely to continue, and the US will not always enjoy what the Emiratis are doing.”
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Response from Washington and London
Experts believe that the light shed on the Russia-UAE relationship by the Pentagon leaks is unlikely to lead to either the US or the UK making any drastic changes in their relationships with Abu Dhabi.
“In terms of the impact on the relationships with DC and London, I don’t think we’ll see major change,” said Dr Freer.
The fact that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in such close consultation with the UAE on the Sudan file since deadly clashes erupted in Khartoum and other parts of the country this month speaks to the extent to which the Biden administration values Abu Dhabi as an important partner, the Gulf state’s links to Russia notwithstanding.
In the UK, major economic problems at home and the aftermath of Brexit are prompting officials in London to look to the UAE and other Gulf Arab countries for trade and investment deals, decreasing the likelihood of the British government taking any significant action aimed at punishing the Emiratis.
When assessing how the Pentagon leaks could impact London’s approach to Abu Dhabi, Dr Freer predicts that this situation will be “a bump in the road” but probably nothing that leads to the UK recalibrating its relationship with the UAE.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.
Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero