The US-Israel war on Iran has opened a regional Pandora’s box

The US-Israel war on Iran has opened Pandora’s box, and its impacts are likely to be felt for a long time. As the conflict unfolds, however, there is a growing divergence between US and Israeli aims regarding what they define as regime change.

The US government appears to lack a consistent or clear message about its objectives or strategy. However, based on US President Donald Trump’s ongoing remarks regarding his intentions to influence the selection of Iran’s future leadership, it seems likely that their primary goal is to eliminate the current regime and replace it with a more favourable one, without fundamentally changing the regime itself. In a nutshell, their objective is to replicate in Iran what the Trump administration has carried out in Venezuela.

What each side desires

Indeed, US interest in Iran aligns with its broader aims for the region. For decades, it has regarded the region as a vital part of its imperial apparatus because it is essential for controlling global energy markets. Achieving this would enable it to influence the world order and maintain its advantage over rival powers such as Russia and China.

For Israel, the objective is the complete collapse of not only the Iranian regime but also the state in its current form, pushing the country into unending civil war, fragmentation, and instability.  Indeed, Iran is one of the last remaining pillars of support for the Palestinian cause, and removing it would deliver a significant and final blow to their resistance, leading the region towards full normalisation.

In this scenario, Israel imagines that the region will simply accept its exclusive sovereignty over the entire land of historic Palestine. However, this fantasy is the least likely to be realised in the uncertainty of this war. Even if they succeed in causing the full collapse of the Iranian state, this will invite more hostility and resistance towards Israel for generations to come, rather than ending it.

Iran’s objective is straightforward: survival. Their strategy is clearly aimed at increasing the economic cost of the war for the US, Europe, and the region. Unable to directly target the US and with limited capacity to significantly damage Israel’s security and economic infrastructure, Iran has chosen to focus on US bases and economic infrastructure in neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and others.

Iranian officials continue to stress that their target is US security and economic interests in the region. While this may be true, the economic infrastructure being attacked is also civilian infrastructure for these states and is crucial to their own security and prosperity.

From the Iranian perspective, attacking these targets will force Gulf countries to exert maximum pressure on their US and European allies, which could force the US and Israel to cease their war on Iran.

Consequences

A week into the war, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to Iran’s neighbours and promised to stop the attacks, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soon contradicted these statements. In fact, the attacks have escalated in response to US-Israel attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. The consequences are already proving to be long-lasting.

This strategy is already causing tensions between Iran and the states with which it has historically maintained good relations. The outcome of Iran’s reproachment with Saudi Arabia will be particularly significant in the coming weeks and months. Even if the Iranian government withstands the US/Israel onslaught, it will have considerable work to do to mend those relations, which are crucial for diplomatic and economic reasons. This is especially true if it hopes to survive the substantial post-war pressure it will inevitably face from both domestic and external sources.

Furthermore, regardless of the outcome, states in the region will need to reassess whether the presence of US economic and security infrastructure in their territories contributes to security and prosperity or if it has the opposite effect.

This will not be a straightforward policy conversation. Like other nations around the world, Gulf states are deeply intertwined with the US economically, politically, and militarily. No matter how severe the Iranian attacks are or may become, and regardless of the wishes of leaders and the people, these countries cannot easily sever their ties with the US.

US control over global energy markets is crucial for its ability to exert power globally, and it will never simply abandon the region, regardless of the decisions made by these states.

At the same time, recent events have made clear that being part of US infrastructure makes you a legitimate target in the eyes of those nations with which the US wages war. This strategy did not start in Iran, and it certainly will not end there. If, for example, there were a great existential war between the US and China, it is doubtful that China would hesitate to attack all critical American infrastructure anywhere around the world.

What Israel wants, Israel will get

Israel’s regional supremacy will become even more cemented after this war, regardless of whether the Iranian state collapses or not. It is emboldened by the fact that it has not faced consequences for its genocide in Gaza, the intensified annexation of the West Bank, destruction of large parts of Lebanon, occupation of Southern Lebanon, ongoing occupation and attacks on parts of Syria, and now the immense death and destruction in Iran.

Certainly, regional dynamics will likely continue to centre on Israel’s desires rather than the aspirations of the vast majority of the people in the region. Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria will continue to suffer under constant Israeli occupation. This results in a perpetual state of war that will continue to cause instability and insecurity across the broader region, as it has for decades.

It appears that Arab states in the region have few good options. Their sovereignty seems destined to remain in the hands of greater powers, without the ability to fully develop it. However, there is a glimmer of hope contained within Pandora’s box: concerted collective actions across the Arab world to thwart Israel’s plans, especially for Palestine.

The suppression of the Palestinian cause is closely linked with strengthening Israeli dominance in the region, and what this war has clearly demonstrated is that such dominance ensures that full Arab sovereignty in any part of the region cannot be achieved. Arab states cannot afford to allow Israeli dominance to prevail unchallenged, and measures must be taken to prevent Israel from reaching its objectives.

Arab nations can seek support from the international community, which also wishes to curb Israeli aggression. Countries such as South Africa, Turkey, Colombia, Spain, Ireland, Norway, Indonesia, and many others are prepared to back firm Arab leadership on the question of Palestine.

It is true that Arab states cannot easily eliminate US imperial influence from the region. But it is equally true that they can collectively weaken Israel, its main ally and representative, by completely isolating it economically and politically. This would enable Arab states to shift their relationship with the US towards a more equal footing in the long term. Unless this fundamental change occurs, however, the region will continue to face significant uncertainty, instability, and war.

Dr. Muhannad Ayyash was born and raised in Silwan, Al-Quds, before immigrating to Canada where he is Professor of Sociology at Mount Royal University. He is also a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network. He is the author of Lordship and Liberation in Palestine-Israel (Columbia University Press, 2025) and A Hermeneutics of Violence (University of Toronto Press, 2019), has co-edited two books, and is the author of over twenty journal articles and book chapters, and over fifty commentaries and opinion pieces.

Follow Muhannad on X: @AyyashMohannad

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.