Turkey's protest movement must get organised or democracy as we know it is finished

I was having breakfast with my uncle and his wife during a work trip to Turkey that I had also used to visit family, when I saw the news that Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of İstanbul and Erdoğan’s main political rival, was arrested on trumped-up terror charges. In the weeks that followed, I became one of the millions of people who attended the pro-democracy demonstrations that have swept across Turkey since.

We should make no mistake that the mass demonstrations and youth mobilisation give cause for hope. However, İmamoğlu’s party, the opposition Republican People's Party (CPH), is facing an uphill struggle against apathy and a ruthless police state.

Unless the party ramps up its ambitions and is willing to challenge dictatorship head-on, Turkey risks sliding into an even more brazen and vicious form of autocracy.

Young people are speaking out

One of the most striking aspects of the current wave of protests is how young the average attendee is. While people from all walks of life have joined, the protesters are overwhelmingly young students.

This is perhaps unsurprising given Turkish students and universities have been the vanguard of anti-authoritarian resistance since the 1970s.

I vaguely remember a time before Erdoğan, but those who are now in their 20s were literally born after he seized power. This is the generation that missed out on the 2013 Gezi Park protests, but who still carry its spirit as they fight to find their voice today.

However, whilst their active participation in these demonstrations has been lauded by Western commentators, they don’t necessarily grasp the full reality for protestors.

In fact, attending the demonstrations and living in Turkey during these tumultuous days, I have been struck by not only the initial lack of front-page coverage is Western media outlets, but also the discrepancy between the general optimism, and sense of how things are on the ground.

For example, whilst there is growing tension in the air, the night-time protests have yet to turn into coordinated everyday resistance. But this is not the impression one gets reading Western news. I suppose they can celebrate protest without having to deal with the messy reality of organising in Turkey.

Generational pessimism

I have found that my generation, those who are 30-40 years old, are far less energised than the younger people. While they strongly support the demonstrations and boycotts, the overwhelming feeling within my cohort is of exhaustion and crushed hope. I just keep hearing, “I was at Gezi, and nothing changed.”

Another factor is the bitter disappointment in the 2023 presidential election, which saw the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu narrowly lose to Erdoğan. Despite the government cracking down on critics in the run-up to the elections, the votes were (mostly) not rigged, and Erdoğan could claim a popular mandate for himself.

I was in Turkey for both the run-up and aftermath of the election, and could see in my friends’ and family’s faces that for the first time in a decade, they allowed themselves to hope. But these feelings were bitterly crushed.

Two years on, most of what I hear in conversations is that half the country supports Erdoğan despite people knowing about the corruption, feeling the bite because of how expensive everything is, but still voting for him again. This was the case even in the areas impacted by the earthquake.

I recently watched a video circulating of an Erdoğan supporter proudly announcing how she is unphased by economic hardship: “I’ll eat onions and bread, I won’t abandon my chief, I won’t abandon Recep Tayyip Erdoğan!”

Alas, this tired resignation is present everywhere I go.

Who will build an organised opposition?

Driving across Ankara, you can see water-cannon trucks parked in conspicuous places. Across major cities in Turkey, riot police and hastily erected fences stand guard at symbolic points. But mostly during the day, aside from touts selling Turkish flags and face masks to would-be protestors and some light conversation with like-minded shopkeepers, one could easily imagine nothing is amiss.

It is ultimately the responsibility of the CHP to galvanise this protest movement, and the wider population for that matter. It is, after all, by far the largest opposition party that has a national network of party officials and members, infrastructure and finances, connections to trade unions and businesses, and the longstanding loyalty of older opposition-minded Turks.

No to mention, it is the imprisonment of their future presidential candidate that sparked the protests.

However, so far the CHP has failed to take up this challenge.

At the start of the protests Özgür Özel appeared at the mass demonstrations in İstanbul’s Saraçhane every day, giving rousing speeches to the media. But then, he called for the largest rally yet to be held in Maltepe, on the Asian side of İstanbul, rather than in the central European parts of the city. He also declared that demonstrations should switch from organic daily events to weekly affairs.

Many saw this as a shirking of responsibility, that Özel was effectively leaving the work of mass organising to students and young people.

In the absence of alternatives…

The CHP is already treading on thin ice. Many younger Turks see the party as only a slightly less incompetent and corrupt (though secular) version of ruling AKP party. There isn’t really the belief that they would change very much if they came to power.

Whilst the Party has called for a boycott of businesses and brands backing the government, how strictly this will be followed will vary between social groups, even in opposition circles.

It is very striking that the CHP has not called for a general strike, which is in stark contrast to smaller left-wing parties and unions. Many young people thirst for these radical tactics, and in the absence of CHP leadership, they will gravitate towards ultra-nationalist alternatives such as the Zafer or İYİ parties, who flash the ultra-nationalist wolf-salute and shout nationalist slogans at demonstrations.

The CHP clearly faces two options. They can either continue down the current path, regularly mobilising large but mostly symbolic crowds in non-prominent locations alongside a half-hearted boycott, and risk losing momentum lest the economy takes a turn for the worse. Or, they can call for civil disobedience on a mass scale, with 24/7 protests and occupations in prominent locations such as Saraçhane in İstanbul (the epicentre of the initial protests), Güvenpark in Ankara, and Cumhuriyet Square in İzmir, combined with public calls for a general strike and boycott.

Undoubtedly the latter strategy will lead to even more arrests and violence by state forces as Erdoğan has demonstrated that he is determined to destroy any electoral threat to his rule by any means necessary, whether it’s from Turkish or Kurdish opposition parties. It was all too visible during the clamp down on May Day protestors in İstanbul today, during which over 200 people were arrested before it was even midday. However, if the CHP doesn’t act now to save itself, and the remnants of Turkish democracy, there will be no second chance.

Orhan Kaya is a Turkish-British political analyst and human rights activist who has worked on for human rights defenders and refugee rights in the Middle East for over seven years. He also works in geopolitical analysis around MENA, Europe, and China.

Due to the politically sensitive nature of his work and the ongoing demonstrations in Turkey, this article has been published under a pseudonym.

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