Whoever was shocked by Israel's attack on Qatar on Tuesday afternoon should have found their surprise diminish rapidly once they paused to take stock and recognise that Israel, under its current extremist right-wing leadership, is a war machine unbound by any degree of restraint. It has been granted absolute impunity by the US to launch any amount of aggression, commit any crime, and occupy any land.
What many have warned of since the start of the genocide in Gaza two years ago - that the region was transforming into an "Israeli sphere of influence", and this would continue unless the Arabs acted quickly to halt Israel's advance by implementing serious measures available to them (short of waging war on the Zionist state which was never considered an option) - is unfolding faster than expected.
Alongside erasing Palestine and the Palestinians from existence, Israel is waging wars on Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen, occupying territory across the region, and openly proclaiming its project to resurrect a "Greater Israel".
Neither Tunisia nor Qatar has proven safe when it comes to Israel's bombs. On a single day, Tuesday, September 8, Israel struck five Arab countries: Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Qatar. This number would have been higher had it extended its attacks to Yemen, as it has been for months.
The Israeli leadership's hatred for Qatar is no secret, which is another factor that should have reduced the element of surprise and strengthened Qatari preparedness. On 31 August, Israeli arrogance reached the point where its Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir openly declared his army's intention to eliminate Hamas' leadership abroad - a statement immediately interpreted (accurately) by Netanyahu's media mouthpieces who switched the phrase "abroad" with "in Qatar".
However, all these factors - that might have mitigated the shock of the assault on Doha - were countered by a decisive element that has long provided reassurance to some: the US security guarantee for the Gulf states. For decades, the relationship between the two sides has been built atop this guarantee, or, more precisely, on the promise of US protection for the Gulf countries against the so-called "Iranian threat" since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
On this basis, massive US military bases were established in the region, trillions of Gulf dollars were invested in the US economy, Washington monopolised the arming of the Gulf militaries, and the political roles of regional capitals were aligned with US policy.
What is unclear is whether the Qatari leadership truly believed in this supposed US security guarantee in the face of Israel's unrestrained savagery and its publicly stated threat to target the Hamas leadership in Qatar.
Moreover, what has emerged in statements, declarations, and leaks after Tuesday's bombing of Doha confirms that Israel, at the very least, informed the US on Tuesday morning of its intent to strike Qatar. President Donald Trump himself said Steve Witkoff conveyed this to the Qataris - but according to Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs this happened only when the missiles were already raining down on residential homes in Doha.
Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani clarified on Tuesday evening that this notification came precisely ten minutes after the strikes, refuting Trump's and other US officials' claims that Washington informed Doha of Israel's plans prior to the attack.
Netanyahu and his ministers' haste to absolve Trump of any responsibility for Tuesday's airstrikes, and insistence that the decision and execution were entirely Israel's responsibility, should be regarded as mere rhetoric for media consumption.
It's true that Israel doesn't act as a subordinate to the US in the conventional sense that many imagine. However, on a matter as sensitive as Israel bombing a US ally like Qatar, American neutrality on being notified of Israel's decision to launch airstrikes essentially signals implicit approval of the aggression. Trump's annoyance, expressed in a few words posted on Truth Social rather than in an official statement or press conference, does nothing to diminish that.
As for White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's statement conveying that Trump didn't believe the strikes were useful - this was contradicted by the rest of her statement, where the targeting of Hamas' leadership was described as "a worthy goal" that "could amount to an opportunity for peace".
If Trump had actually wanted to prevent Netanyahu from carrying out the raid, he could have stopped him, as when he prevented the continuation of the war on Iran, forcing Israeli jets to return to their bases even as they sought to continue the bombardment on June 24, 2025 - the final day of the 12-day war.
The fact that Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, felt free to tell Fox News (Trump and his administration's favoured US network) on Wednesday that if Israel had missed any targets during the Doha attack it would hit them next time, is further proof that the US administration was either complicit in Tuesday's assault, accepting of it, or at the very least happy to turn a blind eye to it in the name of what it views as a "worthy goal".
From this perspective, leaks suggesting that Trump floated his ceasefire proposal days ago merely as a ruse to gather Hamas leaders together, so that Israel could eliminate them en masse, seem logical and highly plausible. This is especially the case given that he employed the very same trick with Iran when Israel's war against it began on June 13, 2025 - the very day a key meeting between Witkoff's delegation and Abbas Araghchi’s delegation was planned in Muscat.
Whether the US colluded in Israel's bombing of Qatar, turned a blind eye to it, or was simply told about it doesn't really matter. All these scenarios lead to the same conclusion: there is no US security guarantee and no military protection umbrella for any country in the world except for Israel, at least under Donald Trump.
This conclusion could serve as a starting point and opportunity for the advancement of regional policies entirely different from those that have been pursued since the end of World War II, then after the Iranian Revolution, and later following the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and the events of September 11.
Ernest Khoury is the Managing editor of Al-Araby al-Jadeed, The New Arab's Arabic-language sister publication.
This is an edited translation.
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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab.