How long can Arab Americans give Trump the benefit of the doubt?

The irony is that 20 minutes in the Great Commoner Café in Dearborn – Michigan last November had more impact on US foreign policy in the Middle East than the combined leverage of Arab regimes. The trade was clear in the last US presidential elections: Arab Americans sought to spare their families the scourge of Israeli wars and then presidential candidate Donald Trump wanted their votes to win the White House.

This family restaurant, incidentally, owned by a Lebanese Shiite family (Abbas) imposed on Trump a written yet vague public statement to end the Israeli wars in Lebanon and Gaza before agreeing to host him on November 1 at their restaurant.

Two key Arab American community figures who were present to host Trump, the Mayor of Hamtramck and the socially conservative Yemeni American Amer Ghalib and the Mayor of Dearborn Heights Lebanese American Bill Bazzi, were respectively appointed as US Ambassadors to Tunisia and Kuwait. Both Mayors delivered, and Trump won Dearborn Heights and made significant gains in Hamtramck.

The Arab vote

Trump won Dearborn, a stronghold for Lebanese Americans, by 42% compared to his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris who received 36% of the vote.

The Mayor of Dearborn, Abdullah Hammoud, is another Lebanese Shiite who is on the left of the Democratic party and refused to meet Trump but was also highly critical of Biden’s policy towards Israel during the Gaza war.

These three Michigan cities have the largest Arab American populations per capita in the US and represent nearly 27% of the 81,000-vote difference that allowed Trump to claim Michigan.

Indeed, Trump’s need to flip Michigan was a game changer as Harris did not clearly commit to changing Biden’s policy in the Middle East during the initial contact between her campaign and the Arab American community.

In a poll about Arab Americans a month before voting day last November, Trump and Harris were in a dead heat, 42% and 41% respectively. Moreover, Arab Americans who identify themselves as Democrats dropped from 52% in 2016 to 23% in October 2023 when the war on Gaza started. This identification was at the same rate of 38% between Republicans and Democrats after Harris became a presidential candidate.

If 9/11 was a transformational moment for the Arab American vote transition toward the Democrats, is the Biden administration’s inaction during the Israeli war on Gaza the beginning of their gradual return to the Republicans fold?

Where Arab Americans stand

In their heritage month celebrated in April, Arab Americans cannot seem to figure out what to make of Trump’s tumultuous second term. Their perception might expectedly be as complex as the White House policy at home and abroad.

Arabs in the US seem to be sure that Trump was a better choice than Biden, but are not completely sold out yet to staying the course with either Trump or the Republican Party.

However, as the pre-election poll showed, there was a slight preference for Harris if she had made a similar effort as Trump. 60% of Arab Americans said they’d vote for Harris and 55% for Trump if either of them called for ceasefire in Gaza, pressured for humanitarian aid, and used US arms shipment to pressure Israel.

It is not clear where Arab Americans stand when it comes to the first three months of Trump’s second term; there is no public poll yet to give an indication, but they seem ambivalent so far. Though, part of the community seems to be disappointed with Trump’s unpredictability.

One organisation changed its name from “Arab Americans for Trump” to “Arab Americans for Peace” after the White House proposed the US takeover of Gaza to transform it into “the Riviera of the Middle East”.

Furthermore, Trump’s crackdown on students and immigrants who stand for Palestinian rights does not bode well with the Arab American community who deserted President George W. Bush after his global war on terror and his Islamophobia.

US foreign policy in the Middle East

Since Trump suspended the “Liberation Day” tariffs, his poll numbers are bouncing back as well as the US stock market. Hence, Arab Americans can live with this economic policy upheaval as it did not reach the level of Bush’s 2008 US recession, or his violations of civil rights.

Clearly, the tipping point for the Arab American view of Trump remains US foreign policy in the Middle East.

However, Trump has not done much to prevent Israel from relaunching the Gaza war. Just last week, within 48 hours, Israel killed 90 Palestinians in Gaza. In the first week after the collapse of the ceasefire, on March 18, nearly 700 Palestinians were also killed.

The Israeli government also continues violating the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Despite the frustration, the situation has not yet fully and widely reached the Arab American breaking point with Trump.

It does seem that the president’s approach is compatible with the mainstream Arab American view that a US military presence should be maintained in the Middle East

Given Arab Americans primarily live in metropolitan areas, they are politically active and sensitive to US policy in the Middle East. Their eligible voters are nearly 2.3 million, which almost equals the population size of the Gaza Strip.

Hassan or Albert Abbas, the owner of the Great Commoner Café in Dearborn, handed Trump a commemorative plaque with a quote from Ronald Reagan that says: “Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the ability to deal with conflict by peaceful means”. It reflects the community’s recognition that Middle East conflicts will persist, but the Arab American community expects the US to better manage and regulate it diplomatically.

Joe Macaron is a researcher and analyst in geopolitics and international relations with over two decades of experience with high-profile international organisations. He holds a Ph.D. in Politics and International Studies from the University of Bath in the United Kingdom.

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.