How France’s 2027 election could reshape Palestine solidarity

France’s 2027 presidential election is, in many ways, a referendum on whether the country wants the far-right in power or a progressive left-wing future. The outcome will certainly shape how pro-Palestinian voices in France will be treated. Will they face more intense repression in the form of arrests, fines, dissolved organisations, and academic exile, or will they be able to organise, protest and speak out without fear of being criminalised?

The results of the race will also have a detrimental impact on Paris continuing to push for Palestinian statehood, a ceasefire and accountability for what happens in Gaza and the West Bank or whether it will instead fall fully behind Israel.

Whilst some might mistake the question of Palestine as a niche issue, in reality it is a test of how far a democracy will go in policing conscience and what role France chooses to play in the world beyond it.

Already a hostile climate

To understand what's at stake, it helps to remember that France did not wait for a far-right government to start restricting Palestine solidarity. Indeed, since October 2023, authorities have taken an increasingly restrictive approach towards Palestine activism. Police have used tear gas and water cannons against demonstrators, and the Interior Ministry even banned protests.

Under Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, authorities have also sought to dissolve Urgence Palestine, one of France’s largest Palestine solidarity groups, accusing it of promoting and glorifying terrorism.

University students have also faced disciplinary and legal action over their involvement in Palestine solidarity protests. Some have even been accused of antisemitism linked to their anti-Zionist views. In May 2024, 88 Sorbonne University students were held in police custody after they took over a lecture hall in solidarity with Gaza.

Dozens of others have been handed criminal records and fined for “entering a school with the intent to disturb the peace or good order of the institution".

Concerns were also raised over the proposed Yadan bill that was introduced under the guise of strengthening the fight against antisemitism. However, it soon became clear that it was being used to repress criticism of Israel. One of its most controversial proposals would have made “incitement to the destruction of a state” a criminal offence, punishable by up to five years in prison and a €75,000 fine.

Critics warned that the broad wording used would restrict legitimate political speech or expressions of solidarity with Palestinians. Nevertheless, after significant pressure, the legislation was withdrawn.

What a far-right victory would likely mean

If the National Rally (NR) wins the presidency, the measures already available to the state could take on greater significance. NR leader Marine Le Pen, previously barred from standing after her fraud conviction, is now proving popular in early polling after her ban was lifted. Worryingly, this means she has a good chance of taking power, and would therefore inherit an extensive set of legal and administrative tools to restrict protests, prosecute certain forms of speech, and shut down solidarity groups.

We know this is highly likely under Le Pen because she has worked to present the RN as a defender of French Jews and a strong supporter of Israel, which marked a significant shift in the public image of a party that had a long history of antisemitism.

This repositioning has allowed the party to incorporate the fight against antisemitism into its broader emphasis on security, immigration and national identity. This has particular negative implications for Palestine and other forms of activism, young people, French Muslims and people of North African and Middle Eastern backgrounds who will likely face increased racism, Islamophobia, anti-migrant policies and a curtailment of civil liberties.

Given the party’s positions on public order, protest bans could also become more frequent through the weaponisation of counter-terrorism, as we’ve seen implemented across Europe and the US.

Online speech will also likely remain an important battleground. If legislation like the Yadan bill becomes law, one of the central questions will be where authorities draw the line between antisemitism, anti-Zionism and legitimate criticism of the Israeli government. After all, under a far-right administration, these boundaries are likely to widen rather than be clearly defined.

On the international stage, a far-right government would almost certainly pull France closer to Israel's positions, making it harder to advocate for aid to Gaza, a real ceasefire or accountability for Israeli crimes without that advocacy being cast as disloyalty or extremism.

It seems impossible to imagine that France will remain a country that recognises a Palestinian state under an RN presidency.

A different direction

On the other side of the political spectrum is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), a party that has made support for Palestinian rights a prominent part of its platform and has attracted significant support among younger and more diverse voters. This position stands in sharp contrast to the RN’s increasingly pro-Israel stance and reflects a wider political divide over how France should approach both the genocide and Palestine activism at home.

When the left-wing New Popular Front emerged as the largest bloc in the 2024 legislative elections, Mélenchon declared that recognising a Palestinian state should be among the priorities of a left-led government. LFI has also consistently criticised restrictions on Palestine demonstrations, as well as the use of terrorism allegations against activists and political figures who express solidarity.

A government led by LFI or the broader left would more likely resist legislation that blurs the distinction between antisemitism and criticism of Israel.

On the foreign policy front, such a government would also likely impose an arms embargo on Israel over its continued crimes in Gaza, while pushing more overtly for an independent Palestinian state and humanitarian assistance, as well as apply greater diplomatic pressure on the occupation.

Next year’s election will show the world whether France will vote to defend its democratic rights, like dissent, or fall for the divisive rhetoric of the far-right that will likely weaken people’s liberties.

Palestine activists and the Palestinian diaspora are understandably worried, given they are already in fear of the legal and professional repercussions that come with expressing their solidarity. A country led by the far-right will likely worsen their ability to exercise free speech, and criminalise them for daring to.

Ultimately, a democracy is tested not only by its willingness to protect speech it agrees with, but by how it responds to speech that challenges, unsettles and divides it.

Oman Alyahyai is a writer and journalist based in Paris.

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.