Fearful of Trump clone, Australia votes back 'boring' status quo

It’s the worst defeat Australia’s Tories have suffered since the Liberal Party’s inception in 1944.

On Saturday, May 3, Australians delivered a resounding, knockout blow to a brand of Trumpian politics that saw hard-right leader Peter Dutton lose his own seat. The incumbent Labor Party, meanwhile, has claimed one of its most emphatic electoral victories in its history, with projections of 92 seats, a comfortable majority to form government in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

But if you read the headlines at the beginning of the year, this is one spectacularly surprising outcome. By the end of 2024, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, was in polling freefall. His approval rating had slumped in December to its lowest since he won office in 2022, amid growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the cost-of-living crisis.

Dutton, on the other hand, seemed to be on a path towards victory, with a poll as recently as January showing his conservative Coalition ahead.

It’s often said in Australian politics that federal elections are decided in the last fortnight of a campaign. But to have the pendulum swing so far from a probable Dutton victory in January to losing his job just over three months later is a stunning result few could have predicted.

Australia votes against Trump

What happened in the three months that could have provoked such a ferocious swing against Dutton? Donald Trump.

Australians have looked aghast at the Trump wrecking ball that has seen tariffs slapped on the world, including Australia, then paused, as well as a mass cull of the US public service, and shocking abductions and deportations of people from US streets.

Trump’s 10% tariffs on Australia stung the nation and became a pivotal moment in its own election campaign. The betrayal hit deep, prompting even pro-military hawks such as independent senator Jacqui Lambie to openly question the merits of a US alliance and call for the closure of the US spy hub at Pine Gap in central Australia.

Dutton’s Coalition, however, misread the Australian room and imported ideas from the Trump White House in the hopes his ascension would propel a far-right wave across the Pacific.

Taking directly from the Trump playbook, Dutton vowed to create a DOGE-style government efficiency program, axe 41,000 public sector jobs, target diversity and inclusion roles and crack down on work-from-home arrangements.

As Trump’s agents kidnapped people from US streets and sent them to an El Salvadorian torture prison, Dutton ramped up his divisive rhetoric, floating the idea of a referendum to grant politicians the power to revoke citizenship.

Dutton also took aim at migrants, calling for caps to migration under the false pretence that migrants and international students were causing the housing crisis – despite clear research showing no link between international students and the housing crisis.

The migration dogwhistling and threats to revoke citizenship could only be interpreted as an attack on Australia’s non-European communities, who make up a quarter of the population. The culture war antics persisted with attempts to whip up anti-First Nations sentiment by refusing to stand in front of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at press conferences – a long-time custom for Australian leaders – and attacking Welcome to Country ceremonies performed by Indigenous elders at public events.

And on foreign policy, Dutton’s hardline streak continued with promises to welcome wanted war criminal and Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Australian soil, which would effectively position Australia in open defiance of the International Criminal Court and international law.

The vote on Saturday was clear: Australians don’t want Trump’s horror show imported here by way of Peter Dutton. Amid global uncertainty, voters sought stability. The Australian election result was a powerful rejection of the far-right politics coming out of the White House, and only days after Canadians delivered a similar punch.

Palestine not a factor

Absent from the election commentary was Palestine. The party that championed the plight of the Palestinians, the Greens, suffered a wipeout in the House of Representatives, with leader Adam Bandt also losing his seat of Melbourne. The party did, however, retain its seats in the Senate.

It’s a shocking result for Australia’s third political force, and most prominent progressive party, which took cost-of-living and Palestine to the election in the hope that widespread dissatisfaction with Labor would push it into a power-sharing, minority government.

One seat likely to sting for the Greens is Wills, one of the country's most progressive electorates, where Labor scored a narrow hold.

Despite a strong campaign centred on Palestine and backed by pro-Palestine activist groups, the Greens were unable to unseat the incumbent, Peter Khalil, who retained the seat with 51.8% of the vote.

Khalil’s primary vote held, and positive swings to the Greens and the Socialist Alliance were ultimately insufficient in unseating the Labor MP.

Arabs and Muslims find voice in Sydney

Two electorates with significant Arab and Muslim populations in western Sydney were a major focal point.

Outraged by the Labor government’s complicity in the genocide in Gaza, local activists quickly mobilised, forming two political action groups – the Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matters.

It is the first election in which there has been active mobilisation among Sydney’s large Arab and Muslim diaspora, targeting two high-profile Labor ministers with comfortable margins.

While neither the immigration minister, Tony Burke, and the education minister, Jason Clare, were ousted, the Muslim Vote-backed candidates finished a remarkable second – Ahmed Ouf in Blaxland achieved a 20% primary vote and Ziad Basyouny won 16% in Watson. Their independent campaigns cut Labor’s primary vote in both electorates – considered Labor strongholds – to below 50%, setting up closer contests for the 2028 elections.

The aim of these grassroots, Palestine-inspired independent campaigns was not victory per se – overturning double-digit margins is nigh-impossible in Australian politics – but the mobilisation of a movement and the building of a foundation from which to launch winnable electoral assaults. By this measurement, the pro-Palestine independent campaigns have met success.

Australians wanted a steady ship in rocky waters

Given the losses suffered by both the hard-right and progressive ends of Australian politics, it’s clear that Australians are increasingly wary of the political toxicity abroad seeping into their own communities.

The Coalition must reckon with the fact that the old rightwing playbook of race-baiting, culture wars and the scapegoating of minorities is not an election winner. While far-right politics has taken charge in the US, there is no automatic switch that suggests Australians will simply follow an American path they can clearly see as perilous.

Key differences between the US and Australian political systems act as a buffer against far-right extremists grabbing power in Australia. Compulsory voting in Australia means it is a much higher hill to climb for far-right agitators seeking to establish political power. They cannot rely solely on a loyal voting base, like, for example, millions of white Christian evangelicals in the US, to give them consistent political weight. In the US, voting is politicised and skewed in favour of Republicans, which allows the Republican voting bloc to have an outsized role in US politics.

A trademark of Australian politics is the enduring, sizeable chunk of voters who are disengaged from politics – 25% of voters said they had no or “not much” interest in politics in this 2022 study, which has remained steady for over a decade.

In the US or any other democracy where voting is voluntary, the disengaged cohort may elect not to vote. In Australia, they are still required to vote and are less malleable to extreme propositions coming from the far-right or system-changing ideas from the left.

This has been a constant headache not merely for the far-right, but also for progressives, like the Greens, who have attempted to run positive campaigns with policies designed to improve conditions for the working and middle classes – e.g. free GP visits, including dental into Medicare, tuition-free university and building affordable housing.

Ironically, however, the Greens appear to have also fallen victim to the Trump effect this election. The country seemed on track in 2024 polling for a minority government that would have potentially enhanced the Greens’ hand in decision-making. But the fear of Trump appears to have shocked many Australians into opting for what they know – a mediocre yet somewhat comfortable status quo with an incumbent Labor government.

Antoun Issa is a Lebanese-Australian journalist with more than a decade's experience. His journalism journey began in Beirut at the height of the Arab Spring, working for three years as a news editor for the US-based outlet, Al-Monitor. Antoun then relocated to Washington, DC, where he spent several years in the foreign policy community at the US think tank, the Middle East Institute, before joining The Atlantic as an editorial strategist assisting non-profits across North America.

After returning to Australia during COVID, Antoun joined Guardian Australia, where he remained for four years in senior editorial roles overseeing the expansion of the Guardian’s off-platform presence and newsletters, as well as producing and anchoring his own video content. In 2024, Antoun briefly joined the Australian Greens as a political staffer. He is currently working on a narrative non-fiction book situated in the Lebanese Civil War.

Follow Antoun on Instagram: antoun.issa