Is despair making the Arab people nostalgic for old dictators?

The Arab people have proven time and time again that they can adapt remarkably well to the continuing deterioration in their countries at various levels. This resilience stems from the desire to challenge harsh conditions and survive despite dire economic and political situations thrust upon them.

At the same time, this resilience also reflects despair over the difficult conditions they live in and frustration with failed governments and tyrannical leaders who are only efficient at repression. This resentment drives some Arabs to yearn for the leadership of former dictators.

The ability of people to adapt to deteriorating conditions is not a matter of choice but rather a necessity for survival and self-preservation. After the failure of the Arab revolutions, people do not have the luxury to think of opposition and different possibilities.

"The counter-revolution has managed to make economic, political and living conditions in various Arab countries worse, to the point that some have invoked the rule of former dictatorial leaders as examples of better times"

The counter-revolution has managed to make economic, political and living conditions in various Arab countries worse, to the point that some have invoked the rule of former dictatorial leaders as examples of better times. Some Iraqis remember the virtues of Saddam Hussein, Egyptians mourn the era of Hosni Mubarak, Libyans remember Gaddafi, Lebanese long for the pre-civil war military rule, and Yemenis hark back to Ali Abdullah Saleh.

This nostalgia for former dictators indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the new dictators. It does not reflect a genuine support enjoyed by the old rulers or suggest that the oppressed people of today actually admire their executioners and dictators.

Instead, it reflects the extent of despair experienced by the Arab people more than ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring. It is a desperate nostalgia for a past in which it was possible to live to a certain extent, meeting basic needs but without political rights, in contrast to a present in which many are struggling to live, and political rights are still non-existent. 

Currencies have lost a third of their value in Algeria and Tunisia, more than half of their value in Libya and Egypt, and much more than that in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. There is a lack of security in many of these countries, little access to electricity and water, and feeble health and educational services.

An opinion poll for The Guardian and YouGov shows that the percentage of the region’s population who feel that the situation is deteriorating is higher than it was before the revolution, with 75 percent in Syria, 73 percent in Yemen, and 60 percent in Libya. The same opinion poll in Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, and Iraq showed that most believe that their country’s situation is deteriorating continuously.

Ruling Arab regimes are content with this situation. They believe that the people have accepted the status quo as inevitable and will continue to put up with poor living conditions and political repression. There is no option for people to challenge these conditions through protest or revolution because they live in a state of total exhaustion – fully occupied in securing basic needs of food, water, and health services.

"It is true that many of these people have reached the stage of despair and have begun to yearn for the era of the old dictators. However, this will not prevent a new wave of protests from erupting again"

Such regimes believe that the people have learned the lesson. They make no attempt to provide for the basic needs and at the same time they expect complete loyalty from a population which is denied fundamental political rights.

However, the question remains: are the calculations of the existing Arab regimes correct? To what extent will the situation continue in this way? Won't the deteriorating situation be enough to spark protests and revolutions again?

Answering these questions is not easy, but the calculations and assumptions of repressive regimes may be short-sighted. It is true that the counter-revolutions have succeeded, at least for the time being, and have killed the democratic dreams of the rebellious peoples. It is true that many of these people have reached the stage of despair and have begun to yearn for the era of the old dictators.

However, this will not prevent a new wave of protests from erupting again. These uprisings may not necessarily achieve their goal of change, but they will at least make the task of repressive regimes more difficult.

Political and social change is a complex and time-consuming process. But the Arab Spring revolutions were a clear indication that the awareness and understanding of Arab people fighting for a better future has reached an unprecedented stage and that, despite failed attempts at political change, we are still only at the beginning.

Tareq Al-Naimat is a Jordanian journalist and researcher specializing in Islamist movements. He currently works as a senior editor at al-Araby al-Jadeed, The New Arab's Arabic-language sister outlet.

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.