British humour at its finest: a Brit might lead Palestinians toward their statehood just after London recognised their state. Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has emerged as the primary candidate to implement the White House ceasefire plan for Gaza and lead the post-war transitional authority.
The irony is stark as Donald Trump just turned a blind eye to Israeli strikes in Doha against Hamas negotiators reviewing his own ceasefire proposal, and then denied Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas a visa to attend the United Nations recognition of Palestine as a state in New York.
This is not just a dismissal of Palestinian aspirations, but a denial of their right to representation in decisions about their future. Blair, through his Institute, is no longer merely “advising” world leaders - he is being positioned to lead an American-Israeli post-war order in Gaza.
The surreal nature of the process was underscored when the Palestinian Authority’s security services arrested businessmen Samir Khalila on 10 September, a figure who was floated as a US-backed candidate to serve as Gaza governor in a transitional capacity.
Who will lead?
Blair’s candidacy is apparently meant to resolve the “day after” dilemma that has long obstructed ceasefire negotiations. The Biden administration suggested the Palestinian Authority could take over Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the idea.
Along with Jared Kushner, Blair attended the 27 August White House meeting on Gaza from which Trump’s 21-point plan emerged. Though he initially denied involvement, the Financial Times has revealed that Blair’s team took part in the “Trump Riviera” project, an Israeli investor-driven scheme under the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, modelled by Boston Consulting Group, to reimagine Gaza as a “thriving trading hub”.
An earlier version of this plan included the mass transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza.
According to the Economist, the “Gaza International Transitional Authority” would hold a five-year UN mandate as “the supreme political and legal authority” staffed by Palestinian technocrats under international supervision, before handing power back to a rebranded Palestinian Authority. Blair would direct it remotely through a secretariat of up to 25 people and a seven-people board, initially based in Egypt’s al-Arish, before relocating into Gaza once secured, while an Arab-multinational force managed security on the ground.
Trump’s management of expectations, as always, is problematic. On Truth Social, he declared a “real chance for greatness in the Middle East” and claimed that “all are on board for something special”, before even meeting Netanyahu or securing Arab full backing, let alone Palestinian consent. Hamas dismissed Blair as “an unwelcome figure”. Egypt rejects any displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. Saudi Arabia remains wary of foreign-led governance in Gaza and sceptical of a drown-out five-year transition. Netanyahu resists relinquishing control, fearing the plan’s domestic fallout.
The controversy should not be reduced to Blair. His name risks distracting from the flaws of the plan itself. Trump jumped from negotiating a ceasefire and hostage deal to pushing for a grand bargain on the Palestinian Israeli conflict, echoing Biden’s failed attempts to lower expectations late in his presidency.
The Trump plan, leaked in fragments, primarily seeks to demilitarise Gaza, eliminate Hamas and lure aid and investment, a familiar US formula that substitutes economic development for political rights. It envisions reconstructing the towers Israel has destroyed, establishing economic zones and reducing tariffs to attract investors. This is a colonial blueprint: redesigning Gaza’s future without consulting its people, after more than 65,000 Palestinians have been killed in two years.
The plan allows a phased Israeli withdrawal, but with no timeline or guarantees, leaving open the risk of indefinite control. It is vague about the mandate of any international security force, its rule of engagement, and its protection from Israeli overreach. Building such a force will take months - what happens to Gaza in the meantime?
Crucially, Palestinian statehood is conditioned on Gaza “redevelopment” and Palestinian Authority “reforms”, which are open-ended requirements dictated by Washington and Tel Aviv. There is no provision for Palestinians to control their own security and economy. It gestures vaguely toward an undefined “political horizon”, with Palestinians excluded from shaping the transition. Nor is there clarity on whether the US opposition to West Bank annexation is part of the plan, or merely a disposable Trump sound bite.
With ambiguous terms like “redevelopment advanced”, “terror-free areas”, and “phased withdrawal”, the rushed plan is more slogan than policy. Two high-level meetings in Washington and New York cannot credibly settle the political and legal framework of such an ambitious document nor resolve decades of entrenched conflict simply because a self-absorbed president wants a quick trophy for his record.
If the White House seeks credibility, the first step must be to suspend Israeli military operations in Gaza city - launched with US backing - and allow a two-month ceasefire with limited prisoner exchanges. Only then could conditions exist for serious dialogue.
Whether Blair’s name is floated as a trial balloon or a serious nomination, he is not the right person to lead a credible process. His legacy in Iraq and his closeness to Israel are major disqualifying factors. More than the individual, though, what matters is whether this transition would be balanced and effective.
Over a century after Conservative Arthur Balfour promised “a national home for the Jewish people”, an interventionist Labour centrist figure now surfaces to oversee Palestinian statehood - on behalf of Washington and Tel Aviv. History, it seems, delights in irony.
Joe Macaron is a researcher and analyst in international relations and geopolitics with over two decades of experience with high-profile international organisations. He holds a Ph.D. in Politics and International Studies from the University of Bath in the United Kingdom.
Follow Joe on X: @macaronjoe
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