After two catastrophic years, what awaits Palestine in 2026?

I am regularly asked for my view on what will happen in Palestine in 2026. While it is possible to speculate, it is difficult to be certain of the answer to the question.

However, it is important to begin with where we are now. We know that more than 100,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel including at least 20,000 children. Almost all the infrastructure and the homes in Gaza have been fully or partially destroyed.

Most Palestinians are either living in tents of various quality, in their partially demolished homes, or out in the open. Israel has not allowed the required amount of aid specified in the Trump plan. A deliberate act to further starve the population and expose them to the harshness of winter.

It is not possible for Palestinians in Gaza to begin to return to a semblance of a normal life without schooling, university education or medical help. Israel has mostly destroyed all the infrastructure for this, making the situation even more desperate as the people are also moved to the narrowest area of land possible.

Without dignity, a normal life, and a lack of hope, Israel intends to push them to seek another land, rather than remain steadfast in their homeland. In fact, it seems that Israel works overtime to find ways of enticing them away, going as far as organising flights to take hundreds of them all the way to South Africa – without exit stamps in their passports of course, to really ensure they aren’t able to return to their homeland.

All the while for Palestinians who remain, Israel has divided Gaza into two areas separated by a virtual ’yellow line’ that is not always apparent to Palestinians. This has left many vulnerable to deadly violence by Israel, and for those on the ‘wrong side’ aka Hamas controlled area, they are constantly exposed to attacks.

Israel continues to deny independent journalists free access to Gaza on the pretence of security – those who are taken in are under the ‘protection,’ and therefore censorship, of the IDF. Furthermore, Israel’s spokespeople and allies continue to deny the accusation of genocide, some arguing that less people have been killed by them in Gaza compared with other armies in the past…

Israel has even (once again) appealed to the International Criminal Court – which it declares it does not officially recognise – to revoke the arrest warrants against PM Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant.

What future?

Given such a horrific reality in Gaza, it should come as no surprise that I feel the future only holds more pain and suffering for Palestinians. And Israel’s plans will lead to further destruction, the total annihilation of any infrastructure needed to sustain life, and the cleansing of Palestinians from their land through death and expulsion.

This process will be intensified through the Trump/Kushner rebuilding plan, which seeks to transform a devastated Gaza into the Mediterranean Riviera, and facilitate the erection of illegal Israeli settlements in the strip. Trump has even repeatedly raised the need for Gazans to leave, explaining that they couldn’t possibly live in the ruins he fails to acknowledge are Israel’s doing.

These plans are also not limited to Gaza. In the West Bank, Palestinians have already been expelled, including from refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem.

This all sits into Israel’s broader efforts to erase the identity of Palestinians, and refugees in particular. It’s probably why it has waged war on UNRWA, an agency specifically set up for Palestinian refugees following the Nakba.

Additionally, the recent closure by Israel of the King Hussein Bridge turned the West Bank into an open air prison at a stroke.

No real leadership

Meanwhile, it seems to me that Palestinians in the West Bank, especially those living in the Ramallah bubble, refuse to recognise the real dangers that await them. And the Palestinian Authority just sits paralysed in terms of standing up to Israel, or even recognising it faces the threat of being dissolved.

Indeed, for Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Palestinian Authority is conspicuous by its absence. Settlers are rampaging through the West Bank, including areas A and B but particularly C, whilst they enjoy the protection of the IDF, yet PA security forces have done little to nothing to protect Palestinians.

The same is true in East Jerusalem, home to Al Aqsa. The mosque has been the target of settler incursions, including by Israeli ministers, but once again the PA has been absent.

Frankly, the PA’s failure to lead Palestinians towards liberation renders it irrelevant. An put simply, it is allowed to continue to exist by Israel to spare it the load of administering and securing the occupied territory – which is the cost of its illegal occupation.

Whilst Palestinian citizens of Israel continue to exist, which in itself is a form of resistance, I expect Israel will look for ways to make their lives a misery too, with an eye to push them out.

Even the over 10,000 Palestinian prisoners languishing in Israeli jails – the backbone to the Palestine liberation movement – are now faced with the prospect of being executed.

Does Israel really expect to achieve ‘security’ through all these oppressive, repressive and violent efforts? Whether it is the case or not, however, one thing is true: a colonised people will always find ways to exercise their right to resist, until they are free.

Furthermore, millions around the world have joined solidarity efforts in the face of over two years of genocide in Gaza. The movement has only grown in its conviction that Palestine must be free, whereas Israel is battling a crisis amongst its soldiers and its population that is increasingly looking to leave for safety reasons.

The only way to lead the Holy Land to a more hopeful future is for the US to cease its support of the lawless government in Tel Aviv. It must act to protect it from itself and would likely have the support of the 20 or so leaders who witnessed the signing of the Trump plan in Sharm El Sheikh. But judging by the inaction in the face of Israel’s constant breaches of the ceasefire, I do not imagine this will happen any time soon.

It's clear that in 2026, Palestinians will face more of the same unless Washington drastically changes its approach. Nevertheless, we will continue to hope that the new year brings Palestinians liberation and justice, and that the Israeli government is held accountable for its crimes by being tried at The Hague.

Professor Kamel Hawwash is an academic at the University of Birmingham and a long-time campaigner for justice.

Follow him on Twitter: @kamelhawwash

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.