Will Israel invoke its nuclear 'Samson Option' in its war with Iran?

Israel began its aerial offensive in Iran last week, citing what it called the dangers of the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme, claiming that Tehran could use a nuclear weapon against it.

While Iran has repeatedly said it was not looking to create nuclear weapons as it was forbidden in the Islamic religion, Tel Aviv had claimed that its longtime foe was not far from producing its first nuclear warhead.

It has used these allegations to rally support for an attack on Iran, which insists that it had every right to own a peaceful nuclear programme and had refused to compromise its uranium enrichment.

While Israel tries to rid Iran of its nuclear ambitions, it remains the only country in the Middle East with a nuclear programme – although it has never confessed to this.

Some observers have questioned whether Israel will resort to using its nuclear arsenal against Iran to deal its programme a final deathblow.

What does Israel have?

Israel's Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centre, commonly known as the Dimona plant, was built with the help of France and achieved criticality in 1962. Only a few years later, Israel had reportedly developed its first operational nuclear weapon.

Israel is estimated to have anywhere between 90 and 400 warheads, with the first completed around late 1966 or early 1967.

This estimate would position Israel as the sixth nation globally to develop nuclear weapons.

By the mid-2000s, estimates of Israel's nuclear arsenal varied widely, with speculation about uranium enrichment capabilities adding to these uncertainties.

Delivery methods for these weapons are believed to include F-15 and F-16 fighter jets carrying the bombs, submarine-launched cruise missiles, and the Jericho series ballistic missiles with a range of up to 11,500 km.

Israel consistently reiterates the cryptic refrain that it will "not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East".

Despite international calls to join, Tel Aviv has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

The international community's approach to nuclear proliferation exhibits notable disparities, especially when comparing the cases of Israel and Iran.

Israel, despite widespread speculation of its nuclear possession, enjoys a unique position of strategic ambiguity. It does not face the same level of scrutiny or sanctions imposed on other nations like Iran, which has been subject to rigorous inspections, strict sanctions, and intense diplomatic negotiations.

Samson Option

Israel has an unannounced deterrence strategy to use its nuclear weapons as a last resort if it believes it is under an existential threat.

Like its nuclear programme, Israel has never openly spoken of its so-called "Samson Option".

The name is derived from the biblical figure Samson, an ancient Israelite judge who is believed to have brought down a temple upon himself and his captors, symbolising Israel’s readiness to risk maximum destruction on itself and its enemies rather than be defeated.

Israel has reportedly nearly used its nuclear options in past conflicts, such as during the Six-Day War of 1967, when it is said that Israel considered using its nukes in Egypt’s Sinai to threaten its opponents, who lost the war.

Whether Israel chooses to resort to this doomsday method of warfare remains a frightening question for the Iranians, Israelis, and people of the region.