After a year of deadlock, will Iraqi Kurdistan proceed with an early parliamentary vote?

More than a year after the Iraqi Kurdistan Region's sixth parliamentary elections, parties remain unable to agree on the presidency of the parliament or how to form a new cabinet. Discussions regarding early elections have intensified divisions among Kurdish political parties, with each party articulating distinct positions within the ongoing debate.

Despite mounting pressure, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) oppose another election because both parties seek to maintain their current influence and leverage. Smaller parties allege that the KDP and PUK are deliberately prolonging the deadlock and using the threat of early elections as a negotiating tool to secure favourable terms in government formation discussions.

Omar Gulpi, a member of parliament from the KJG, told The New Arab that the ongoing political vacuum requires new elections.

"More than one year has passed since the Kurdistan Region’s elections, and the parliament has not been activated. After wasting all this time and money, the assembly deserves dissolution and a new election," he said.

He added that, under regional law, failing to elect a speaker within 45 days indicates the parliament's inability to function as the region's highest authority. The KJG filed a complaint at Iraq's Supreme Federal Court to annul the results and mandate new elections, but the court dismissed it.

Gulpi alleged that the court yielded to political pressure from Kurdish ruling parties.

In the parliamentary elections held on 20 October 2024, the KDP secured 39 seats, making it the largest bloc. The PUK obtained 23 seats, the New Generation Movement (NGM) opposition party won 15, the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) secured 7, the National Stance Movement (Halwest) bloc gained 4, the Kurdistan Justice Group (KJG) took 3, and the Change Movement secured 1 seat.

The deadlock ultimately centres on fierce party competition for senior government roles and control of ministries, which neither the KDP nor the PUK will concede.

The KDP seeks to retain the premiership and presidency, as well as authority over the Interior and Natural Resources ministries and other sovereign ministries, aiming to solidify its dominant role in the region's governance.

The PUK is seeking the speakership of parliament, the presidency, the Interior Ministry, and additional ministries, intending to increase its influence and counterbalance the KDP's power.

The PUK also requests clarification on whether the KDP will pursue the Iraqi presidency, a position traditionally held by the PUK. This demand stems from the PUK's desire to preserve its historical role and negotiating strength. Officials suggest that if the KDP withdraws its bid, it could create flexibility in regional negotiations.

A PUK source, speaking on condition of anonymity to TNA, said early elections remain an option but have not been formally requested by the KDP because the concept is being used as a bargaining chip. The source described early elections as 'a pressure card' to extract concessions and secure more favourable terms in a broader power-sharing agreement.

Ghiath Surchi, head of media at the PUK's organisation centre in Nineveh, indicated that talks on electing a parliamentary speaker and forming a new cabinet may be linked to a broader agreement on the allocation of positions in Baghdad after Iraq's 11 November elections.

According to Iraq's post-2003 power-sharing arrangement, the presidency is allocated to the Kurds, the premiership to the Shia, and the speakership of parliament to the Sunnis. Surchi emphasised that, within Kurdish political circles, the presidency is traditionally regarded as the PUK's entitlement.

"Those who threaten the PUK with re-election in the Kurdistan Region should know we are ready. If they are serious, let them hold new elections," he said.

TNA contacted KDP spokesperson Mahmoud Mohammed and PUK spokesperson Karwan Gaznay, but neither was available for comment.

New leverage

The KDP's gains in the recent Iraqi elections have now deepened the Kurdistan impasse, as the party uses this victory to bolster its negotiating position, making resolution of the deadlock even less likely.

At the MEPS Forum in Duhok, Masrour Barzani stated that the KDP would negotiate the next KRG cabinet "based on the new conditions" resulting from its federal-level success. He accused the PUK of "insisting on very unreasonable positions" and impeding progress.

"The formation of the next government must reflect the victory of each group," he said, insisting the KDP had been "very respectful and generous" in talks.

Barzani also accused the PUK of deliberately delaying a government agreement until after Iraq's elections.

This political deadlock continues as factions disagree over whether holding new elections would resolve the crisis or replicate it.

KDP spokesperson Mahmoud Mohammed stated to Rudaw on 15 November, "Nothing has been discussed on this issue so far. We hope it won't come to holding new elections."

The PUK argues a new vote would change little and waste resources. It prefers the status quo for leverage in negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Islamic Union is open to new elections if clear objectives are set.