Will Gaza truce boost Trump's chances at Nobel Peace Prize?

The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday in Oslo, with growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could emerge as a surprise winner after mediating the new Gaza ceasefire.

Israel and Hamas have agreed in principle to a US-brokered "first phase" truce involving a halt to fighting, a partial Israeli withdrawal, and a captives-for-prisoners exchange. But some have warned that the agreement remains fragile, with many pointing to Israel's record of undermining or breaking previous ceasefire deals.

Bookmakers have placed Trump among the leading contenders, with UK odds aggregators such as Oddschecker listing him at 13/2.

Analysts believe Trump's association with the Gaza truce has driven the rise, though the Nobel Committee's process remains secret and seemingly insulated from public lobbying.

Trump's role in fragile Gaza peace deal

Trump's team led months of negotiations facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, culminating in a 'first phase' ceasefire deal. Under the agreement, Hamas would release several captives in exchange for Israel easing its blockade and withdrawing forces from parts of Gaza, as well as releasing hundreds of Palestinian captives.

But experts warn the truce could quickly unravel. The Washington Post reported that major sticking points remain over Gaza's governance and the timeline for Israeli withdrawal, while The Guardian noted that previous ceasefires had "collapsed under mutual accusations of violation".

The BBC observed that if Trump’s plan materialises and holds, he could be "a contender next year" rather than this year, reflecting on the committee’s tendency to reward durable, proven agreements.

Trump's campaign for the prize

Trump's fixation with the Nobel Peace Prize stretches back years. He has repeatedly boasted of ending "seven wars" and accused the committee of bias after Barack Obama received the award in 2009.

"Everyone says I should get it", he told supporters recently, suggesting that denying him the prize would be "an insult to our country".

His current push has been amplified by political allies at home and abroad.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said this week there was "no doubt he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize" for his role in the Gaza agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously brandished a nomination letter for Trump at the White House, hailing him as "the architect of a new Middle East".

Pakistan’s government formally nominated Trump earlier this year, while Azerbaijan’s president also declared his support for Trump getting it.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, representing relatives of Israelis held in Gaza, also appealed directly to the Norwegian Nobel Committee. "In this past year, no leader or organisation has contributed more to peace around the world than President Trump," the group said in its letter, according to The Times of Israel.

According to Norwegian media cited by the BBC, Trump even phoned Norway’s finance minister and former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to lobby directly for the award - a rare move that demonstrates his obsession with getting the prize.

Betting markets and expert scepticism

Betting markets have surged in Trump’s favour, with odds ranging from 6/1 to 13/2 across UK sites. Yet experts say such markets reflect hype, not committee insight.

Nina Graeger, director of the Oslo-based Peace Research Institute (PRIO), told the BBC that Trump's record - including withdrawing from the World Health Organisation and the Paris climate accords - "points in a non-peaceful direction".

Her assessment has gained weight by Trump's actions since he regained power earlier this year.

In June, he ordered large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan - one of the most aggressive US military actions in decades.

Over the summer, his administration also carried out strikes on vessels linked to Venezuela in the southern Caribbean, killing at least 11 people in what Washington described as an anti-narcotics operation.

At home, Trump has deployed thousands of troops in US cities. In recent months, he sent National Guard units to Chicago and Los Angeles amid unrest, invoked emergency powers to take control of policing in Washington, DC,  and attempted to invoke the Insurrection Act to override state opposition to his troop deployments.

A federal judge in Oregon blocked his plan to send troops to Portland after legal challenges. Critics say such actions undermine his image as a peacemaker.

Still, Graeger acknowledged that if the Gaza truce endures, "it would be difficult not to look in his direction next year".