Will Algeria recall its envoy over US reaffirming Morocco's claim on Western Sahara?

When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood beside Morocco's top diplomat this week and reaffirmed Washington's support for Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, all eyes turned to Algeria–a country that has long championed the territory's independence.

On 9 April, Algeria expressed regret over "reaffirmation" of the US position aligning with Morocco on the disputed territory, whose final status remains undefined under international law.

The Polisario Front, which seeks independence for the Western Sahara, is backed by Algeria and recognised only by a few states as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people. 

"Algeria regrets the confirmation of this position by a permanent member of the UN Security Council, from whom respect for international legality in general is normally expected", the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

The language of the Algerian official statement was, surprisingly, carefully calibrated. Rubio went unnamed. So did Donald Trump. And while the statement stressed legality and resolutions, it made no mention of downgrading ties or retaliatory measures.

At the heart of this diplomatic balancing act lies the return of Donald Trump and, with him, the resurrection of a policy that upended decades of US neutrality on the territory.

In the final weeks of his first term, Trump recognised Morocco's claim to the territory and promised to open a consulate there. Those plans were shelved under Joe Biden. Now, with Trump back in the White House, Washington appears ready to revisit them.

Unlike France and Spain, whose softer versions of support for Morocco's autonomy plan triggered immediate Algerian retaliation, from ambassadorial recalls to trade freezes, the US seems to be receiving a more restrained response.

For a nation that has styled itself as a bastion of anti-colonial resistance and an uncompromising backer of Palestinian and Sahrawi causes alike, this moment might have called for outrage. 

"Given the international weight of the US and the influence of its positions and statements on the Western Sahara issue, Algeria's response should have been stronger—more proportionate to the significance of the US stance", Said Saddiki, professor of international relations at Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University in Fez, told The New Arab.

The question now looming over Algiers: Will it recall its envoy to Washington?

So far, the answer appears to be no. Analysts say that Algeria's measured tone is a reflection of realpolitik and of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's wariness of provoking a volatile Trump administration.

"The Tebboune administration is choosing its words carefully in hopes of avoiding any direct confrontation with Washington", Andrew Farrand, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the New Arab.

"This reflects a real fear in Algiers that a diplomatic breakdown with the Trump administration would leave Algeria isolated for the next four years, and cement Morocco's influence even more."

Algeria's muted reaction also aligns with its long-standing preference for quiet diplomacy when dealing with the US—a contrast to its more combative stance with European states.

"The explanation lies in Algeria's asymmetric perception of international power", explains Safae El-Yaaqoubi, a political analyst specialising in US–Maghreb relations, to TNA.

"France and Spain are regional actors that Algeria feels it can confront without lasting cost. The United States, however, is viewed as a system-shaping actor, one whose policy cannot be easily shifted by symbolic protests."

That asymmetry is particularly pronounced on the economic front. The Trump administration's liberation tariffs imposed 30 percent tariffs on Algerian goods, far higher than the 10 percent rate Morocco faced. Yet, the Algerian government has refrained from challenging the measure publicly.

Still, the economic fallout may be limited as most of Algeria's exports to the US are in energy, which are exempted, according to the Wall Street Journal.

However, Algerian officials remain wary, not just of steep new tariffs, but of political pressure to normalise relations with Israel, and the broader diplomatic cost of alienating Washington.

Morocco vs Algeria: What's the Western Sahara conflict?

The Western Shara issue is a decades-long territorial conflict that once included Mauritania, Morocco, Spain, and Algeria.

Today, Morocco controls roughly 80 percent of the Western Sahara, claiming it as its own. The Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, continues to fight, in courts, in diplomacy, and at times militarily, for a sovereign Sahrawi republic.

The United Nations (UN) lists Western Sahara as a "non-self-governing territory" and supports a long-delayed referendum on self-determination. That vote, first agreed upon in 1991, has never taken place.

The UN Security Council, welcomed in its resolutions, since Morocco suggested the autonomy plan in 2007, autonomy as "serious and credible efforts" made by Morocco–language that has been repeated in subsequent resolutions.

Both Algeria and Polisario opposed the plan.

"This differential treatment weakens Algeria's credibility and makes its position on Western Sahara appear selective and strategically driven, rather than uniformly principled," added El-Yaaqoubi in her interview with TNA.

Meanwhile, Morocco, buoyed by years of lobbying in Europe and Washington, is gaining momentum.

With Madrid and Paris now broadly aligned with Rabat's autonomy proposal, and with the US doubling down, pressure might be mounting on Algiers to recalibrate its diplomatic approach vis-à-vis the territory.