Why are Muslim American voters turning away from the Democratic Party?

A recent poll has found that Muslim American voters are turning away from the Democratic Party. This comes amid Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, which started during a Democratic administration, and a general trend away from party affiliation.

The poll, published by Pew Research Center in July and conducted between 2003 and 2004, found that the advantage the Democrats have had with the Democratic Party over the last two decades has shrunk considerably.

Though the party continues to outperform Republicans with Muslim voters, the gap has significantly narrowed. Around half of Muslim adults (53 percent) lean toward the Democratic Party, while 42 percent lean toward the Republican Party, according to the poll.

Prior to 9/11, the US Muslim community tended to lean Republican, aligning with their generally conservative social values. With post-9/11 policies such as the Patriot Act that imposed mass surveillance on the community, many Muslims turned toward the Democratic Party. This continued through Donald Trump's first administration.

Joe Biden's presidential campaign saw an unprecedented mobilisation of Muslim voters, which helped him clinch key swing states. However, with his support for Israel's far-right government's war on Gaza, many withdrew their support for the Democratic Party.

In the 2024 presidential election, some voted third party, some voted for Trump after he promised to end wars and for his traditional social messaging, many withheld their votes at the top of the ticket, and many reluctantly voted for Kamala Harris, see her as a "lesser evil", but far from an ideal choice.  

"It's going to be interesting to see the breakdown after four years of Trump. It seems like there's a feeling that they’re politically homeless," J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told The New Arab.

"There are a lot more people who are soft Republicans than hard Republicans," said Coleman. "A lot have shifted to Republican, but they're not ready to say they're permanently on the Republican side."

This trend away from political affiliation could potentially make the community less susceptible to being for granted, compelling politicians to court their vote, rather than take it for granted.

Muslims account for just over one percent of the US population, but they are among the fastest growing in the country. Moreover, some of the largest communities are located in swing states, such as Michigan and Virginia, and are becoming increasingly politically engaged.

Though many US Muslims are disillusioned with politics at the national level, there is a growing engagement at the local level, particularly with more Muslims running for public office. The Democratic primary win for the New York mayoral race saw the upset victory of Zohran Mamdani, re-energising voters far beyond New York.

"Muslims can be mobilised at the local level," Rania Salem, a Chicago-based member of the Arab American Action Network, remarked to TNA.

She pointed to a recent example of Chicago suburb Orland Park, where Jim Dodge ousted Mayor Pete Pekau. After community members protested his lack of support for Gaza, he responded by suggesting they go to a different country.

"The community came together and completely voted him out. They can definitely mobilise when they have an incentive to be mobilised," she said.

As for presidential elections, Salem doesn't see Muslims mobilising for the Democratic Party the way they did for Biden in 2024, given the party establishment's support for Israel's war on Gaza.

"A lot of people have lost faith in the system. They don't believe they can vote for a president that represents them," she said.

"Gaza has opened a lot of people's eyes," Salem added. "Foreign policy has become their number one issue."