What we know about the Iran ceasefire - and what we don't

A major escalation of the Middle East war was narrowly averted on Tuesday evening after Iran and the United States agreed to a temporary ceasefire and to enter negotiations to permanently end the devastating six-week conflict.

The deal, brokered by Pakistani mediators, will see the US, Israel and Iran pause the conflict for two weeks and came hours after Trump had threatened that Iran's "whole civilisation will die" if it did not make a deal.

This is what we know – and what we don't – about the potential turning point in the conflict.

A ceasefire on Iran's terms

Writing on Truth Social, Trump announced that a 10-point proposal submitted by Iran would form a "workable basis on which to negotiate".

Though Trump reiterated that the US military had exceeded all its objectives, details of the plan published by Iran have since revealed just how many of its maximalist demands it succeeded in putting on the negotiating table.

According to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the proposal involves a recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium, the lifting of all sanctions and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. All attacks against Iran and its regional allies would end, Iran would remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation would be paid for its wartime losses. All of this would be codified in a legally-binding UN Security Council resolution.

The plan also includes a commitment by Iran not to build a nuclear weapon, according to Iranian media.

Iran was triumphant following the deal's announcement, describing it as an "undeniable, historic, crushing defeat" of the US.

"Iran has achieved great victory and forced the criminal America to accept its 10-point plan," the council said in a statement.

US climbdown?

Trump on Wednesday morning downplayed what was widely perceived as the beginning of a climbdown and preemptively ruled out any negotiations over the fate of Iran's nuclear programme.

"There will be no enrichment of Uranium," he wrote on Truth Social, claiming that Iran would surrender its stockpile of enriched material.

Nevertheless, the White House's agreement to discuss Iran's maximalist proposal signals it could be readying itself to make serious concessions to bring an end to the war.

Trump had until yesterday demanded that Tehran agree to all his pre-war conditions, including banning nuclear enrichment, curbing its missile programme, and breaking ties with its regional allies.

Now, it appears to be ready to discuss topics that before the war would have been unthinkable. The future status of the Strait of Hormuz may now be up for negotiation, potentially heralding a break with a decades-long precedent of the US guaranteeing the free movement of Middle East energy. Other Iranian conditions previously considered audacious, such as demands for compensation and a US military pullback, will seemingly also be up for discussion.

The status of the strait

There have been conflicting accounts of what has been agreed regarding the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

While Trump said Tehran committed to the "complete, immediate" opening of the waterway, Iranian media reports have suggested a more limited agreement.

An unofficial proposal carried by the semi-official Fars news agency stipulates "limited daily passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, under the title of the Safe Passage Protocol, which is supervised and governed by the country's specific rules".

Reports suggest that Iran will continue to charge a $2 million transit fee to all ships crossing the strait, which will be shared with Oman. The arrangement would provide Iran with billions of dollars of new revenues every year should it remain in place. Oman has since denied that it would collect levies on ships in the waterway.

Several vessels transited the strait via the corridor delineated by the Revolutionary Guards in the hours following the truce, according to tracking data, suggesting Iran is continuing to control shipping activity.

Shipping through the critical chokepoint has marginally increased in recent days as Iran made deals with individual countries to allow their ships safe passage.

Eyes on Lebanon

Fresh Israeli attacks in Lebanon this morning are threatening to unwind the ceasefire just hours after its announcement.

Israeli officials have insisted that the agreement does not apply to its war with Hezbollah and have launched new strikes across the south of the country. Tehran has since warned it would end its ceasefire with Israel if it does not halt its attacks in the coming hours.

This comes despite Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announcing that the ceasefire would be applied "everywhere including Lebanon".

Hezbollah has not announced any new attacks on Israeli forces since the ceasefire came into effect.

Talks to start this week

Negotiations are expected to start on Friday and will take place in Islamabad alongside Pakistani mediators. The talks will last for two weeks but could be extended if there is no agreement in place.

The Trump administration is still considering whether to meet directly with Iran's negotiating team, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday.