What might Iran do after US strikes on nuclear sites?

After the United States launched a wave of airstrikes against Iran’s most fortified nuclear facilities, the world is watching Tehran for its next move.

Israel’s war with Iran has now expanded dramatically, with Washington openly joining the fight.

While President Trump has framed the attack as a "decisive act of peace through strength", Iran has called it a "grotesque violation of international law" and reserved the right to retaliate with full force.

The New Arab looks into how Tehran might respond to this unprecedented attack.

Direct retaliation

Iran has the capability to strike US targets across the region using its ballistic missiles and drone fleets. Its most immediate targets would likely be American bases in Iraq or the Gulf, or even Israeli military sites.

However, full-scale retaliation risks massive escalation. When Iran struck US bases in Iraq after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, it did so in a manner designed to avoid American deaths. A similar strategy might now be attempted.

Still, Iran's pride and credibility are on the line. A strike that goes unanswered would signal weakness to domestic hardliners, and Iran's allies and enemies alike. The question is whether Iran’s leadership is prepared to risk national survival for revenge.

Proxy warfare

Traditionally, Iran's preferred mode of retaliation has been through proxy actors - offering a degree of plausible deniability. Yet its most effective proxy  - Hezbollah in Lebanon - has suffered serious blows. Israel’s air campaign against the group has left it severely weakened, limiting their immediate usefulness.

Nevertheless, Iran still has options.

The Houthis in Yemen have already threatened to attack US vessels in the Red Sea in retaliation. Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned militias could resume attacks on American personnel and diplomatic posts. Proxy action offers Iran flexibility, but limited impact unless it escalates dramatically.

Disruption of oil and shipping

If Tehran wants to rattle the global order, it need look no further than the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of the world's petroleum supply moves through this narrow waterway. Iran has previously threatened to mine the strait or close it entirely in response to American aggression.

Such a move would spike global oil prices - potentially beyond $120 per barrel - and shake up markets already on edge. However, it would also invite a furious international response, and possibly direct confrontation with US naval forces in the Gulf. So far, Iran has not acted on this threat. But that may change if it feels it has nothing left to lose.

Cyber and covert options

Iran's cyber capabilities are substantial.

In the past, it has attacked Saudi oil systems, American banks, and Israeli water infrastructure.

Cyberwarfare offers Tehran a relatively low-risk form of retaliation that can bypass traditional military defences. Sabotage, assassinations, or covert operations against soft targets - especially those tied to the US or Israel - also remain on the table.

The risk of attribution always hangs over such actions, but Iran has grown increasingly adept at using digital and deniable means to inflict harm while avoiding all-out war.

Nuclear escalation

In its official response, Iran claimed that much of its nuclear material had been relocated before the strikes. That may or may not be true, but the symbolism of the attack has been seismic. Tehran now has the option of walking away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), resuming full enrichment, or even publicly pursuing nuclear weapons for the first time.

Whether this would be a serious step toward a bomb or a political bluff remains to be seen. But even the perception of renewed nuclear ambition could trigger further Israeli or American action, while isolating Iran further from its few remaining diplomatic partners.

Internal pressures and regime stability

At 86, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is facing one of the most complex challenges of his rule. While the Revolutionary Guards remain loyal, they are not ideologically uniform, and recent setbacks may be fuelling internal debate about how to respond.

"Iran’s retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing - they may inflict pain, but at enormous cost," Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told the New Yorker. That cost could be military, economic, or political—both abroad and at home.

Yet Iran has long shown an ability to adapt under pressure. Whether it escalates or opts for restraint may depend as much on domestic calculations as on the actions of its adversaries.