Who is most likely to succeed Pope Francis and what could it mean for Muslims?

As the world says goodbye to Pope Francis on Saturday, attention turns not only to the future direction of the Catholic Church but also to the global relationships it nurtured over the past decade — particularly with the Muslim world.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where conflicts often intertwine with religious identity, the ideological nature of the next pontiff could have far-reaching consequences.

The College of Cardinals is sharply divided.

On one side stand the progressives and moderates, who emphasise interfaith dialogue, social justice, and engagement with Islam as a vital path toward peace in a fractured world.

On the other are the conservatives and traditionalists, many of whom fear the erosion of Christian identity in an increasingly secular Europe which has large migrant communities.

Europe has seen a rapid rise of far-right, openly anti-Islamic movements across the continent.

As the world awaits the white smoke over the Sistine Chapel, Muslim communities — from Gaza to Cairo, Beirut to Rabat — are watching closely.

The New Arab looks at the leading progressive, moderate and traditionalist candidates to succeed Pope Francis.

Progressive and Moderate Candidates

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, is widely seen as a leading liberal contender. Deeply involved with the Sant’Egidio Community, which specialises in interfaith dialogue and conflict mediation, Zuppi has worked directly with Muslim leaders in past peace processes.

Following the outbreak of the latest Gaza war, the 67-year-old Roman native called Hamas "the worst enemy of the Palestinian people", while simultaneously urging Israel to accept an immediate ceasefire and to end the suffering of Palestinian civilians. Cardinal Zuppi has consistently emphasised the importance of peace and the need to address the root causes of conflict, namely Israel's continued occupation of Palestinian land. 

His emphasis on dialogue over confrontation suggests that, under his leadership, the Vatican would double down on initiatives aimed at building bridges with the Islamic world. "The alternative to dialogue," Zuppi has said, "is silence and death".

Cardinal Zuppi has also strongly defended the rights of migrants, stating, "Italy needs migrants to live", in sharp contrast to far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s hardline anti-immigration stance.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State and frontrunner to be the 267th successor to Saint Peter, represents a diplomatic, centrist choice.

Having led Vatican foreign policy under Francis, 70-year old Parolin has criticised Israel’s military attacks on in Gaza as "disproportionate" and repeatedly urged respect for civilian lives.

In conversations with Muslim leaders, he has stressed that "diplomacy and the common good must prevail over weapons".

As pope, Parolin would likely pursue a pragmatic approach to the Middle East and North Africa — encouraging peace negotiations, humanitarian aid, and religious tolerance, while maintaining strong ties with both Muslim-majority states and attempting to push Israel towards peace.

Another key figure, 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, brings personal experience of Christian-Muslim relations from his homeland, where a large Muslim minority lives alongside Catholics.

Tagle has consistently defended the dignity of migrants — many of whom are Muslim — and in his work with Caritas Internationalis called migration "a test of Christian love." Though less outspoken about Middle Eastern geopolitics, his commitment to inclusivity suggest a papacy that would promote deepened Catholic-Muslim solidarity across borders.

Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, while less visible on Israel-Palestine issues, has been a tireless advocate for dialogue between Christians and Muslims, particularly in West Africa where religious violence has flared. The 76-year-old sees poverty, injustice, and political instability — not religion per se — as the true drivers of conflict. "Without justice," he warned in 2021, "peace remains a mirage".

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, has also emerged as a figure who could succeed Pope Francis.

Deeply familiar with the realities of the Holy Land, 60-year-old Pizzaballa has not shied away from criticising Israeli military actions and has called for the protection of civilians on both sides.

In late 2024, he made a rare and courageous visit to Gaza, celebrating Mass with the small and besieged Christian community at Holy Family Church, offering solidarity amid the devastation caused by Israel’s assault.

Earlier, during the height of the violence, Pizzaballa made international headlines by offering himself as a hostage in exchange for Israeli children held in Gaza.

Fluent in Arabic and deeply attuned to the suffering of the Palestinian people, Pizzaballa’s election could usher in a papacy grounded in the realities of occupation, dispossession, and the urgent need for justice and dialogue in the Middle East

Conservative Candidates

Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea has been outspoken about his fears regarding Islam’s influence in the West.

Comparing Islamic extremism to "a monstrous fanaticism", 67-year-old Sarah has warned that "the West, forgetting its own soul, risks being invaded by other cultures and other visions of man".

He is deeply sceptical of mass immigration from Muslim-majority countries and has repeatedly urged Europe to "rediscover its Christian roots" in the face of what he sees as an existential threat.

While Sarah has distinguished between Islam and Islamism, his rhetoric has alarmed some Muslim leaders and human rights advocates, who fear a chilling of interfaith initiatives under a Sarah papacy.

Cardinal Péter Erdő, the 72-year-old Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, shares a similarly hostile outlook.

Though less bombastic than Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Erdő has often echoed nationalist concerns about preserving Europe’s "Christian identity".

He has refrained from directly criticising Orbán's openly Islamophobic and far-right rhetoric — Orbán has claimed Europe risks becoming "Islamised" and has referred to Muslim migrants as "invaders" — and Erdő’s public statements suggest sympathy with a restrictive approach to migration.

Though Erdő has participated in interfaith dialogues within Europe, he frames them primarily in terms of defending Christian culture and religious freedom rather than fostering broad reconciliation.

If elected, Erdő would likely emphasise the protection of Christian minorities in the Middle East while adopting a more cautious, less expansive view of Catholic-Muslim dialogue.