US left with few good options as Iran war strategy falters

The United States is running out of options for ending its war with Iran after the 60-day memorandum of understanding expired on Monday without producing an agreement, according to military experts.

Almost six months into the conflict, Washington has failed to force Tehran to accept its demands through military pressure, while the prospect of a ground invasion remains strategically problematic and deeply unpopular among US voters.

That leaves the administration confronting a series of difficult choices to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ranging from renewed military attacks, a ground offensive in the south, accepting a deal that leaves Iran partially in control of the waterway or walking away without an agreement.

"The United States' military options have diminished further over the past few months,” Jason Campbell, a former US Pentagon official, told The New Arab.

He pointed to the deteriorating condition of US aircraft carriers as well as damage inflicted by Iranian attacks on American military bases in the region.

"The strikes that hit the air base in Jordan with a high degree of accuracy demonstrate the extent of Iran's ability to target US positions," Campbell said, adding that Tehran's ability to put American troops at risk "also limits Washington's options when it comes to a potential ground offensive".

'Strategic defeat'

Campbell argued that the Trump administration is reluctant to acknowledge a more fundamental problem: that the US has already suffered a strategic setback.

"The administration does not appear prepared to formally accept what I think has been clear for several months, which is that this war was a strategic defeat for the United States," he said.

Washington instead appears to be buying time by maintaining its naval blockade in the hope that economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to accept its demands.

This, too, carries risks.

"There is an assumption that we can continue doing this without cost," Campbell said, warning that Iran could decide it would no longer allow Washington to dictate the pace of events and instead seek to impose a political or military price on the White House for maintaining the status quo.

An Iranian official threatened to do exactly that on Monday, handing the US an ultimatum to negotiate a deal in the coming weeks or face renewed attacks.

Political damage

Campbell said Tehran appeared determined not only to inflict material costs on the US but to damage Trump politically ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Iranian statements, he said, suggested Tehran could be prepared to remain in confrontation with Washington for the remainder of Trump's presidency.

Nate Swanson, director of the Atlantic Council's Iran Strategy Project, was similarly downbeat on Trump's options.

Speaking to The New York Times, Swanson said Trump's threat on Monday to "bomb the shit out of" Oman reflected his frustration with a predicament of his own making.

"He’s just reflexively lashing out, and this time Oman got in the crosshairs," he said.

Trump could continue an economic pressure campaign that has so far failed to achieve its objectives, escalate military operations despite dwindling US ammunition stocks, or return to negotiations and accept an agreement resembling previous diplomatic arrangements, Swanson said.

US officials have indicated they will return to economic pressure in the coming weeks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowing to impose measures that "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation".

Another possibility would be for Washington to step back from the Strait of Hormuz and demand that its Gulf allies assume greater responsibility for securing the waterway.

"I’m wondering if at some point, either by choice or incompetence, we kind of just put our blinders on and let the Gulf figure it out," Swanson said.

Justin Logan, director of defence and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said Washington's fundamental problem is that it is now fighting to fix problems created by the war, such as re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.

"The tragic part here is that the United States is clawing to try to get back to the state of the Middle East before the war started," he told The New York Times.