As Washington deploys Marines near Iran, what are the objectives and likely scenarios?

As the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week, about 5,000 US Marines and special forces—often used in ground attacks and behind-the-lines operations—are reportedly set to arrive in the region in the coming days. 

Early Monday morning, 16 March, President Donald Trump was asked aboard Air Force One why he was sending these soldiers to the region. Declining to answer, he described the journalist who asked the question as "annoying".

The US military has already moved around 2,500 Marines and other naval personnel, including select special forces units. Some special forces training was cancelled to redeploy units, including the 82nd Division, trained for airport and critical infrastructure control and emergency evacuation operations.

The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, one of the newest and most capable in the US fleet, is also being deployed for coastal attacks and special operations.

William Lawrence, a former US diplomat in the region and director of regional studies at the US-Arab Relations Council, told The New Arab that one of the most likely scenarios for deploying the Marines and special forces is an attempt to enter Iran to secure enriched uranium.

"The goal would not only be to destroy the nuclear programme but also to acquire enriched uranium," Lawrence opined, adding that other scenarios include attempts to seize oil resources, similar to US actions in Syria and Venezuela.

"There are many possible scenarios for what Trump might try," he said. "He may attempt to overthrow the regime with special forces, as he tried in Venezuela, even though he did not succeed, but he believes he did. I do not think Trump knows exactly what he will do with the forces next. Some suggestions and plans could be implemented, but we will have to see what he recklessly decides in the end."

Lawrence predicted that Trump would continue the war until he faced enough pressure to back down, whether from the US economy or domestic politics, including elections.

"Trump will continue as long as he wants. He will claim victory when he chooses and end the war when he feels it in his bones. In my view, the main factors that could stop him are the US economy and domestic politics, including the midterms. When he faces sufficient internal pressure and bad economic or political news during the primaries, he will try to end the war quickly and declare victory, no matter the reality," the former diplomat said.

What Israel wants

Moreover, Lawrence argued that Trump is being told by advisers and war architects that they are close to victory, because they can remove the Iranian leadership, control its resources, and could create a situation like Venezuela if attacks continue.

"These arguments come more from Israel and its friends than anyone else," he said, further noting that Israel's preference is to divide Iran and neutralise it as a long-term threat. "This strategy has very negative implications for neighbouring countries, including Europe. Europe recalls the Syrian crisis and tells Trump they want this war to end now, but he does not listen."

He described the conflict as "in many ways Netanyahu's war, which he has defended throughout his career, and now he finally has his chance," adding the Israeli prime minister likely wants it to continue much longer.

"Netanyahu will persist in this war as long as he can," Lawrence remarked. "But, as in the Gaza war, Americans will always try to save Israel, including from itself, by ending the war faster than Netanyahu wants. If Netanyahu succeeds, the war could continue until Iran's state and society are destroyed and its military and institutions, including oil facilities, are eliminated. We could face a refugee crisis similar to Syria, with millions of Iranians fleeing to survive if the economy and state are destroyed."

Securing the Strait of Hormuz

Regarding Trump's call for oil-importing countries to protect the Strait of Hormuz, Lawrence said, "Trump often gets Americans to accept, or at least prepare for, reckless and authoritarian political announcements via tweets. Now he practises reckless diplomacy through tweets, telling countries what he wants and expecting compliance, or he criticises them. It was interesting to see France pledge 10 ships but not follow through, and the criticisms aimed at UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer were also notable."

Lawrence called Trump's idea that China, France, and Britain could secure the strait to allow oil tankers to pass "fantasy".

"China supports Iran in this war, including resisting US-Israeli attacks. They provide weapons, humanitarian aid, intelligence, and other support to help Iran withstand the assault, including preventing oil from passing through Hormuz. Trump may think he is clever by challenging China, saying they must allow their oil to pass or face shortages, but the Chinese will not obey him. They will do as they wish and will certainly not cooperate with the US, France, and Britain regarding the strait," he added.

On Washington's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and prevent Tehran from threatening oil tankers, the former diplomat said, "It is easier said than done because the Iranian coast is right there. Hundreds of small Iranian boats, effective drones, and short-range missiles could be used in a guerrilla-style campaign to continue targeting US ships."

"That is why Trump said today there could be a missile or drone attack, but most ships would pass. Anyone familiar with the insurance industry and how companies protect their sailors, as we saw in the early Russia-Ukraine conflict, knows Trump’s words are far easier than actions," he added. 

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.