US Congress moving towards strict conditions for Syria Caesar Act relief

The US Congress has moved towards a harder line on sanctions against Syria, setting out strict conditions for suspending the Caesar Act, the sweeping sanctions regime imposed in 2020.

This comes despite widespread speculation earlier this month that the sanctions would soon be removed.

An amendment to the 2026 defence budget introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen would allow a suspension of sanctions only if Damascus complies with a detailed set of benchmarks on security, human rights, and regional relations - particularly with Israel.

The conditions include eliminating the threat of the Islamic State group and formally joining the international coalition against it, and guaranteeing the rights of religious and ethnic minorities with representation in government institutions.

It also includes provisions for maintaining peaceful relations with neighbouring states including Israel, and taking decisive measures against actors deemed to threaten regional security.

Other stipulations require Damascus to pledge not to support or finance any terrorist groups or organisations threatening US national security, to remove foreign fighters from state security and military institutions, and to investigate and prosecute those responsible for serious human rights abuses since 8 December 2024.

Economic experts say the new conditions will be difficult for the Syrian government to meet and could deepen the country’s economic crisis.

"The conditions represent a difficult test for Syria’s economy," economic expert Moayad al-Hallaq told The New Arab's Arabic edition Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. "Any delay in meeting them could exacerbate the economic crisis and make sanctions relief impossible."

Al-Hallaq said Syria is already suffering from shrinking domestic production, rising inflation, and a shortage of foreign currency.

Around 90% of the country's population live in poverty, after the economy was devastated by 14 years of brutal war.

"The continuation or reimposition of sanctions if conditions are not met could trigger further contraction, raise import costs, and worsen shortages of essential goods such as food and medicine," he warned.

He added that compliance with the conditions - particularly those related to fighting ISIS, respecting minority rights, and restructuring the security services - "could pave the way for the return of limited foreign investment and partial sanctions relief".

But he cautioned that any benefit would be slow to appear.

"The economic impact would not be immediate, as domestic markets would still face pressure due to limited resources and lack of investor confidence," he said, stressing that sustainable recovery would require "a clear programme of financial and administrative reforms in addition to compliance with the standards set by Congress".

Another economic expert, Issam Zeidan, said the Caesar Act sanctions have not only targeted the government but also hurt ordinary Syrians.

"The sanctions imposed under the Caesar Act did not only affect the government, they extended to directly impact citizens," Zeidan told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. He argued that a partial suspension of sanctions under the new conditions would have little effect unless living standards improve.

"Rising prices of basic goods and shortages of medicines and fuel have put Syrian families under severe pressure," he said. "The continuation or reimposition of sanctions if conditions are not met could further erode purchasing power, drive more people into poverty, and heighten social instability."

Analysts say the amendment underscores that congressional oversight will remain central to US Syria policy.

Even as Washington debates how to adjust its approach after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, lawmakers appear determined to keep sanctions relief tightly conditioned on compliance with US aims in the region.