US again rejects Nouri al-Maliki as Iraq's PM, signals potential sanctions

The Trump administration has reiterated its rejection of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's nomination for Iraq's prime minister, according to Iraqi political leaders and observers.

These sources caution that the United States may implement comprehensive sanctions against Iraq should the Shia Coordination Framework (CF), an alliance of Shia groups with varying degrees of links to Iran that has emerged as the main ruling coalition, continue to endorse Maliki's candidacy.

Such warnings have aggravated Iraq's ongoing political crisis, which has persisted for nearly 100 days since the November parliamentary elections failed to yield a new president and government.

Kurdish politician and former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari disclosed that the Coordination Framework recently received two direct messages from the White House explicitly rejecting Maliki's candidacy for prime minister.

In an interview with Al-Dijla television, Zebari emphasised that the Kurds would not cooperate with any Iraqi government that includes individuals affiliated with groups designated on the US terrorism or Treasury sanctions lists.

"The Americans have an institutional memory and do not act impulsively," Zebari stated. "They made it clear to Mr Maliki that their objection is not personal, but derives from concerns regarding policies and direction. The United States seeks an independent Iraqi government, free from Iranian influence."

Zebari, a senior member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), stated that the United States signalled possible sanctions on Iraq could be "worse than those imposed in 1991." These measures may target critical state institutions, including the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO), and essential dollar transfers.

He further noted that during a 2 February meeting in Erbil between Coordination Framework leaders and Kurdish parties, the Shia alliance was cautioned that it faced "a significant problem called Trump."

He characterised Maliki's nomination as "the core of the current crisis."

Zebari also stated that, regardless of whether the next Iraqi president is from the KDP or the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), it would be challenging to formally request that Maliki form a government under the current international circumstances. 

Since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, by convention, a Shia holds the powerful post of prime minister, the parliament speaker is a Sunni, and the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.

Trump has publicly warned that Iraq could face sanctions and international isolation should Maliki return to office.

He described this possibility as a "bad choice" and asserted that the United States "will not help Iraq" if Maliki reassumes the premiership.

Trump also argued that Iraq experienced poverty and instability during Maliki's previous term from 2006 to 2014, stressing that this "must not be allowed to happen again."

Sanctions, warnings and a one-week grace period

Separately, Iraqi political analyst Munqith Dagher informed The New Arab that warnings concerning possible sanctions were conveyed to "all three Iraqi presidencies," rather than solely to the Coordination Framework.

Dagher, in a post on the X social media platform, stated that Washington threatened measures targeting not only individuals but also essential state institutions, such as the CBI and SOMO. He also referenced the potential restriction of cash shipments in dollars and Iraqi oil exports.

According to Dagher, Washington recently provided the Iraqi government with a one-week grace period to encourage the Coordination Framework to reconsider Maliki's candidacy. Sanctions may be imposed if no progress is achieved.

Iraq is highly dependent on oil revenues and access to US dollars. Any disruption to exports or currency flows could have severe consequences for its already fragile economy.

Growing fractures

Tensions have also escalated within the Coordination Framework. The alliance postponed a meeting scheduled for this week due to disagreements over continued support for Maliki's candidacy.

Certain influential bloc members have begun proposing alternative candidates in an effort to achieve broader consensus or to persuade Maliki to withdraw "in the national interest."

Reported opponents of Maliki's return include Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Hikma movement. This development indicates increasing divisions within the Shia camp.

However, a spokesperson for Maliki's State of Law coalition asserted that it would be "impossible" for him to withdraw, stressing that any decision to replace him must originate from the entire Framework.

While some reports suggest that the CF is contemplating renewing the current Iraqi cabinet under PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, other consensus candidates include Hamid al-Shatri, head of Iraq's national intelligence agency, and incumbent health minister Saleh Mahdi Muttalib Al-Hasnawi.

Amid increasing US pressure, regional tensions, and economic risks, Iraq's political leaders have limited time to resolve the deadlock before the government-formation crisis escalates into a significant economic crisis.