Will elections be postponed in Iraq's multi-ethnic province of Kirkuk?

Iraq's electoral commission and Arab and Kurdish politicians confirmed to The New Arab that parliamentary elections are scheduled as planned in Kirkuk, despite reports of a possible postponement in this oil-rich province, which is contested by the federal government and the Kurdistan region.

On 11 November, nearly 29 million eligible voters will cast ballots to elect 239 parliamentary representatives. These representatives will then select a largely ceremonial president, while the largest coalition gains the chance to nominate a prime minister and form a cabinet for the next four years. Meanwhile, in Kirkuk, 252 candidates, including 73 women, are vying for 12 seats.

However, Shakhwan Abdullah, deputy speaker of the Iraqi parliament and a member of the voter registry verification committee in Kirkuk, warned that it is still unclear whether elections will actually take place in the province.

He told Rudaw that the committee recently submitted recommendations to the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), which will refer them to the Federal Supreme Court for a decision.

"IHEC has a balanced voter registry for all Iraqi provinces, and the elections will be held as scheduled on 11 November in all provinces. IHEC continue their work to achieve this," Jumana Al-Ghalai, the commission's spokesperson, told The New Arab in an interview via the phone.

Kirkuk is among the areas disputed between Baghdad and Erbil under Article 140 of Iraq's constitution, which calls for measures to normalise the situation, a census, and a decision on governance by either the Iraqi federal government or the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Although the 2007 deadline passed, the Supreme Federal Court ruled in 2019 that Article 140 remains in effect, yet implementation lags due to ongoing political and security disputes.

The amended Article 13 of Iraq's election law grants Kirkuk special status to verify its voter registry until December. Kurds want the 1957 census as the basis for revision, arguing that many Arab settlers arrived during the Ba'ath regime and after Kurdish Peshmerga forces were expelled following the Kurdistan region's 2017 independence referendum from Iraq.

Azam Al-Hamdani, spokesperson for the Arab Council in Kirkuk, stated during an interview with TNA that ruled out the possibility of postponing the elections, saying, "There is no political agreement for postponing the elections in Kirkuk."

Despite official confidence, Al-Hamdani noted that the parliamentary committee "did not complete verifying the voter registration" and that both Arab and Turkmen groups continue to request thorough completion of the verification process.

"I don't think the federal court will look into the issue soon," Al-Hamdani said. "We, as Arabs in Kirkuk, want the voter registration to be based on the records of the 1977 population census," Al-Hamdani said.

Echoing previous statements, Ali Hama Salih, an incumbent Kurdistan parliament member and candidate for the November elections, also said to TNA that a postponement in Kirkuk is unlikely. He predicted the elections would proceed across Iraq, except in the event of a broader regional escalation.

In addition to Kurdish and Arab concerns, Iraq's Turkmen community also acted: In late August, they asked the Federal Supreme Court if Kirkuk was ready for elections. MP Arshad al-Salihi stated that ministries have not completed a court-ordered voter audit.

In March 2023, Iraq's parliament passed the third amendment to the Elections Law (Law No. 12 of 2018). The amendment unified rules for both parliamentary and provincial council elections. For Kirkuk, the amendment replaced Article 35 with new provisions focused on auditing the voter registry. The Independent High Electoral Commission, in collaboration with several ministries and community representatives, will verify voters based on the 1957 census, Article 140 procedures, and residency proof from before 2003.

The law prohibits election results from determining Kirkuk's legal or administrative status. Authorities must settle their future under Article 140 of the Constitution. The Kirkuk-specific measures apply only to the November elections. Power-sharing must ensure fair representation for all ethnic and social groups, regardless of results.