The announced withdrawal of US troops from Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province and Baghdad's Victoria base has prompted uncertainty and concern about Iraq's security arrangements moving forward. This decision highlights confusion over who will replace the US presence and whether Iraq is prepared to manage these critical sites alone.
This withdrawal, part of a sweeping transformation in the US-led coalition's presence, has sparked fresh debate over Iraq's security future and cast new doubts on Washington's long-term ambitions in the region.
Hussein Allawi, a security adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister, has stated that the government has been working since 2022 to secure the country and strengthen its armed forces. "The government has moved towards securing the country and maintaining stability," Allawi told the state-run Iraqi News Agency. He stressed that Iraqi forces are deployed along all six of the country's borders and continue to pursue Islamic State militants, while also benefiting from ongoing training and support from NATO and the United States.
On the coalition's future role, Allawi noted, "The government is working to end its mission and transfer relations to bilateral partnerships, whether with the United States or with other coalition countries, including NATO."
He added that the coalition's mission in Baghdad and Anbar would end in September, while advisers in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region would continue until 2026.
Meanwhile, on the ground, there is little clarity over who will fill the security vaccum left behind. Sakfan Sindi, a member of Iraq's parliamentary defence and security committee, told The New Arab that lawmakers have not received formal notification confirming whether coalition forces have withdrawn from the two bases.
"We do not know which forces will be deployed in their place," he said, further noting that the decision rests on the joint agreement between Baghdad and Washington.
Iraqi political and security Analyst Ghani al-Ghadhban, speaking to TNA, cast doubt on whether the withdrawal is genuine, describing it as "a repositioning rather than a withdrawal."
He argued that US forces are more likely to be shifted to the Harir air base in the Kurdistan Region than to leave Iraq altogether.
"The United States has invested heavily in Ain al-Asad and sacrificed greatly in Iraq since 2003. There is no genuine intention of a full pull-out," he said.
Al-Ghadhban added that, unlike the 2011 withdrawal, Ain al-Asad has not been formally handed over to Iraqi forces.
He dismissed the possibility of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) taking over, saying: "These bases are strategic and have been developed with vast investment. Ain al-Asad is particularly unlikely to be handed over to the PMF, as the base is linked to stability not only in Iraq, but also in Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Though I think it is semi-impossible, but if the base is handed over to the PMF, they would likely be the target of US and Israeli airstrikes."
There are around 2,500 US troops in Iraq, primarily tasked with training and advising Iraqi forces fighting remnants of the Islamic State group. They are based at Al-Asad Airbase in Anbar province, Camp Victory in Baghdad, and at Harir Airbase, near Erbil.
Following Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023, Iran-backed militias describing themselves as "the Islamic resistance in Iraq" have claimed responsibility for targeting US bases in Iraq and Syria.
Although the PMF is officially part of the Iraqi security forces, most factions are pro-Iran and reportedly take orders from Iran.