UAE's MBZ 'warned Netanyahu' of major Hamas-led attack before 7 October

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation against Israel just a week and a half before the 7 October 2023 attack, but Netanyahu failed to pass the warning to Israel's security chiefs, according to a Haaretz investigation published on Tuesday.

The warning was delivered during a 45-minute phone call between the two leaders in the final days of September 2023, according to the Israeli newspaper.

Bin Zayed told Netanyahu that then-Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a major operation against Israel and urged him to take the threat seriously.

Despite the warning, Netanyahu reportedly reacted calmly and told the Emirati leader that he believed Hamas was preparing to act in the occupied West Bank rather than launch an attack from Gaza.

He assured bin Zayed that Israel was prepared for any scenario.

Netanyahu did not subsequently inform the heads of the Shin Bet domestic security agency, Mossad intelligence agency or the Israeli army about the UAE president's warning, according to the investigation.

The report is based on research conducted for a new book, Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment, and draws on dozens of sources in Israel and abroad, including senior officials, as well as recordings, internal documents and correspondence.

Three senior foreign sources were familiar with the contents of the conversation between Netanyahu and bin Zayed, Haaretz said.

The investigation sheds new light on a series of warnings and Israeli security failures in the weeks before the Hamas-led 7 October attack.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Haaretz that bin Zayed had repeatedly expressed concern about escalating tensions in the months preceding the attack.

At the time, the occupied West Bank was experiencing increasing violence by Israeli settlers, Palestinians in Gaza were regularly protesting near the separation fence, and Israel was engulfed in a major domestic political crisis over Netanyahu's controversial judicial overhaul.

Herzog said the UAE president repeatedly conveyed the need to calm the situation and even sent a special envoy to Israel to meet Netanyahu.

According to Haaretz, a close adviser to bin Zayed, a Palestinian who had moved from Gaza to Abu Dhabi and retained strong connections in the enclave, was also present during the 45-minute call.

The adviser said bin Zayed told Netanyahu that Sinwar appeared to be preparing for a major event and that Israel should be ready.

He also reportedly recommended pursuing an economic solution for Gaza and calming tensions in the occupied West Bank to prevent a wider escalation.

Bin Zayed later recounted his conversation with Netanyahu to then-CIA director William Burns, according to the investigation, telling him he had tried to convey the sense that "something there is about to explode".

Earlier warnings

The UAE warning was not the first indication Netanyahu had received that Sinwar could be preparing a major escalation.

Haaretz reported that secret contacts between Israel and Hamas had been taking place with Netanyahu's knowledge and approval during 2023 over a possible temporary truce and longer-term arrangement for Gaza.

The discussions included easing Israel's blockade of the enclave, increasing the entry of food and raw materials, creating employment opportunities and negotiating a prisoner exchange.

But negotiations stalled, with Netanyahu repeatedly postponing a meeting of the ministerial committee required to approve the release of Palestinian prisoners, according to the investigation.

In early September 2023, Sinwar abruptly broke off contact with the negotiating channel.

He subsequently told a Fatah intermediary that if Israel did not make progress, he was preparing a "huge surprise", using the Arabic word "zilzal", or earthquake.

The message eventually reached bin Zayed through his adviser.

On 15 September, the intermediary and the adviser also passed the warning directly to Shin Bet, prompting its then-chief Ronen Bar to speak to Netanyahu and triggering discussions among Israeli security officials.

But Israeli intelligence ultimately assessed that Sinwar might be planning an operation connected to the occupied West Bank rather than a large-scale assault from Gaza.

Haaretz also reported that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel separately warned Netanyahu around the same period that Hamas was preparing "something unusual" and a major operation.

Netanyahu reportedly responded that Israel had Gaza under control and that the main concern was the occupied West Bank.

Israeli security officials told Haaretz that Netanyahu did not disclose the other warnings he had received during subsequent security discussions.

One senior Shin Bet official said knowing about them could have changed the agency's overall assessment of Sinwar's intentions.

Netanyahu's office rejected the investigation as an "absolute lie", saying he had not spoken to the UAE president during the period in question and had received no warning from him.

Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and former Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi confirmed to Haaretz that they had not been informed of the warning reportedly delivered by bin Zayed.