Two years after Nasrallah’s killing, Hezbollah faces a changed Lebanon

Hezbollah supporters gathered near Hassan Nasrallah’s tomb in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday to mark two years since Israel killed the group’s longtime leader. Many carried the group’s yellow flags, a show of loyalty after two wars that have weakened Hezbollah and left parts of its stronghold in ruins.

Nasrallah was killed on 27 September 2024 in an Israeli strike on Haret Hreik, in Dahiyeh. Israel said it had targeted Hezbollah’s central headquarters beneath residential buildings. The explosions brought down several apartment buildings; Nasrallah’s body was recovered from the rubble two days later.

The site of the strike remains devastated two years on. The building where Nasrallah was sheltering and others beside it have yet to be rebuilt, while surrounding residential blocks still bear visible damage. Posters of the former leader mark the place where he was killed.

Across Dahiyeh, his face remains a familiar sight on walls, roadside posters and billboards, including along the road to Beirut’s international airport. Some displays also show Iran’s late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes on Tehran last February.

Nasrallah led Hezbollah for more than three decades, becoming its most recognisable voice and a powerful figure in Lebanese politics. To supporters, he embodied resistance to Israel. The United States sanctioned him, while Hezbollah’s armed wing was placed on the European Union’s terrorism list.

His killing was part of a devastating September 2024 for the Iran-backed group. On 17 September, pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon; booby-trapped walkie-talkies detonated the next day. Together, the attacks killed 39 people and wounded more than 3,400, including civilians.

An Israeli strike killed Ibrahim Aqil, a senior commander associated with Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, on 20 September. Hashem Safieddine, widely seen as Nasrallah’s successor, was killed in an Israeli strike the following month.

A movement under pressure

Sunday’s gathering showed that Hezbollah retains a committed base. But the loss of senior leaders was followed by damage to its military capabilities, disruption to its supply routes and a second major confrontation with Israel this year.

The group faces a changed regional landscape following developments in Syria and Iran, as well as growing pressure at home over the cost of renewed war.

That pressure has sharpened since Hezbollah launched rockets towards Israel on 2 March in support of Iran, triggering another devastating Israeli offensive which has killed more than 4,300 people. Despite a ceasefire announced in June, Israeli attacks and occupation of parts of southern Lebanon remain a daily reality. The group has not launched a new full-scale response.

Lebanon’s president and government, meanwhile, are pressing ahead with the principle that weapons should be held by the state alone.

A framework signed by Lebanon and Israel in Washington on 26 June sets out a phased process under which the Lebanese army would extend state authority, non-state armed groups would be disarmed and Israeli forces would withdraw from Lebanese territory. Hezbollah opposes disarmament, leaving the question of its weapons at the centre of Lebanon’s political debate.

Destruction still visible

A walk through Dahiyeh offers a reminder that reconstruction has not kept pace with destruction. Small excavators can be seen clearing rubble and working around damaged buildings, but the scale of the task extends well beyond individual sites. Repeated Israeli strikes have made lasting repairs harder.

A UN-backed assessment published in June put direct building damage across Beirut and Mount Lebanon at more than $365 million. It found 146 buildings completely destroyed and another 264 partially damaged, and estimated that the destruction had generated nearly 649,000 cubic metres of debris.

Damage was concentrated in several areas of Beirut’s southern suburbs, including Haret Hreik, Hadath, Chiyah, Burj el-Barajneh and Laylaki.

Funding is also another obstacle. Lebanon’s reconstruction needs far exceed the sums its cash-strapped state has allocated, while analysts say major international support is unlikely to arrive on the scale seen after the 2006 war without progress on Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Existing reconstruction funding is directed in part towards rubble removal and public infrastructure rather than compensation for every family whose home was destroyed