Turkey eyes post-UNIFIL role in southern Lebanon despite likely Israeli veto

Turkey is seeking to join southern Lebanon’s post-war security arrangements once UNIFIL’s mandate expires later this year, but analysts say growing tensions with Israel make Turkish participation far from certain.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Thursday, where the two discussed bilateral ties, the Israel-Hezbollah war, and other regional developments.

Erdogan, who has led Turkey since 2003, said his country seeks to join a security initiative for southern Lebanon when UNIFIL’s mission expires at the end of this year.

The proposal reflects Ankara’s broader efforts to expand its regional footprint while countering Israel’s expansionism.

Speaking alongside Aoun during a press conference, Erdogan said that "after the withdrawal of the current international force, Turkey wants to take part in all initiatives that will be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon’s sovereignty."

He said the end of UNIFIL’s mandate "will constitute an important development."

Aoun said he wants to see Lebanon’s relations with Turkey become "more present and more ambitious" at a "crucial moment in which we are restoring our region and reshaping its future." Aoun has also proposed the creation of a European force to replace UNIFIL.

But growing friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv over Gaza, Syria and offshore gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean cast doubt on any future Turkish role in southern Lebanon.

Turkish foreign policy and security analyst Sinan Ulgen said Israel would likely seek to obstruct any Turkish role in a post-UNIFIL arrangement.

"It is indeed likely that Israel would veto such a role for Ankara. And yet this stance would complicate Israel's position in the sense that it will then need to spend a sizeable diplomatic capital to sideline Turkey from this potential security arrangement," he told The New Arab.

Ulgen said Israel would need to demonstrate flexibility in other areas related to the different components of this security arrangement.

He added that American support for Turkey would further undermine any categorical Israeli opposition, but "it is unclear to what extent the current US Administration will actually promote Turkey’s role."

Any successor arrangement would require broad agreement among the UN Security Council and the parties concerned, making its composition highly contentious.

Regional ambitions

Turkey’s ambitions come at a time of deteriorating relations with Israel, making any future role in southern Lebanon politically contentious.

Tensions have simmered between the two countries over the Gaza, Lebanon and Iran wars, and Turkish influence and an Israeli military presence in Syria as well as offshore gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Some Israeli officials have described Turkey as an "enemy state," or the "new Iran," while Erdogan has likened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Hitler.

Ulgen said Ankara’s interest in having a future role in any post-UNIFIL arrangement is to expand its regional influence, counter Israel, and position itself as a security guarantor in post-war southern Lebanon.

"But particularly, it is also about protecting Turkey’s national interest in the Eastern Mediterranean where there is a disagreement about maritime zone boundaries," he said.

"An equally important objective is the stability of the regional order. In that sense, a more stable Lebanon would contribute to the long-term stability of Syria which is a major objective of Turkish foreign policy. Obviously, the obverse is also true where stability in Syria can also be seen as a precondition of Lebanon's lasting stability," Ulgen said.

No decision yet

Other countries such as France and Italy have also expressed interest in contributing to any future security arrangement, although no successor mission has been agreed. Diplomats have discussed a smaller multinational force or monitoring mechanism that would work alongside the Lebanese Army.

UNIFIL deputy spokesperson Tilak Pokharel told The New Arab that the mission was unaware of what might succeed.

"We as a mission are not involved in any discussion on post-UNIFIL arrangements. The Secretary-General [Antonio Guterres] presented an options paper to the Security Council on 1 June and the Council has not made its decision on this paper or on any successor UN mission," he said.

UNIFIL was established in 1978 following Israel’s first ground invasion of Lebanon. It currently has around 7,500 troops from 47 countries, the majority being from Indonesia and Italy, with around 760 and 740 personnel respectively.

Amid US pressure last year, the UN Security Council voted to extend the mission’s mandate only one more time until the end of 2026, with an extra year to pull out of the country.

UNIFIL has been caught in the crosshairs of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict which began in October 2023, with numerous Israeli attacks on its peacekeepers. At least seven have been killed this year in projectiles, roadside explosions, clearing unexploded ordnance, or shelling and mortar attacks.

Israel claims the UN mission has failed at stopping Iran-backed Hezbollah from entrenching itself along the border with Israel, building its arsenal, or constructing tunnels and other underground infrastructure.

UNIFIL has been unable to stop Israeli forces from advancing deeper into southern Lebanon since Israel’s invasion began in 2024, or to prevent Hezbollah’s armament.

Israeli forces currently occupy the entire border region several kilometres inside southern Lebanon, where dozens of towns and villages have been flattened and remain off limits to residents.

Since fighting resumed between Israel and Hezbollah on 2 March, more than 4,300 people have been killed in Lebanon in Israeli attacks, according to the Health Ministry.

Violence has eased significantly since Israel and Lebanon signed a US-sponsored framework agreement in late June, but sporadic Israeli strikes and home demolitions have continued in the south.