Turkey eyes bigger role in EU defence strategy as Europe rearms

Last June, EU and Turkish officials sat down for their first round of defence talks in three years.

At the top of the agenda was Ankara's potential role in Europe's biggest defence spending spree since the end of the Cold War.

Alarmed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and dependent on an increasingly unreliable United States, European countries are racing to expand arms production and diversify their defence partners.

Turkey, boasting the second-largest army in NATO and an increasingly sophisticated arms industry, will be vital in helping Europe achieve its goals, some analysts have said.

"Turkey is a very critical component of European security," Sinan Ulgen, founder and director of the Istanbul-based thinktank EDAM, told The New Arab.

Turkish companies possess key capabilities currently out of reach of even Europe's top defence firms, he said.

The country's NATO membership also makes it a natural security partner whose hardware is closely compatible with equipment used by most European militaries.

'At the vanguard'

Turkey's investment in its defence industry has over the past decade begun to bear fruit in the form of increasingly sophisticated, high-value products such as autonomous weapons systems, smart munitions, and combat vehicles.

In just the first half of the current decade, it trebled the value of its exports and now has buyers in dozens of countries around the world.

The government wants this rapid growth to continue and is targeting a rise from $7.1 billion last year to $11 billion by 2028.

Drones have been the poster child of Turkish success, generating headlines across the world for their involvement in Ukraine, Syria and the recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Led by Baykar and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), the country has grown to become a UAV power responsible for more than two thirds of global transfers between 2018 and 2023, according to data collated by the Centre for New American Security.

It is also attempting to enter the small group of countries capable of producing advanced fighter jets with its fifth-generation aircraft, the KAAN, which it hopes to be operational by 2028.

Aselsan - the country's largest defence company - last month launched its multi-layered 'Steel Dome' air defence system capable of protecting against short, medium, and long-range missiles.

Meanwhile, armoured vehicles have become the country's biggest defence export item.

Turkey's emergence as a major defence exporter has been "quite remarkable," said Ulgen.

He pointed to the industry's breakthroughs in drones and electronic warfare, which he said put it "at the vanguard of global manufacturing" in key emerging technologies.

Entering Europe

This provides Turkish companies an opportunity to deepen their involvement in Europe, where NATO member states have committed to increase defence spending to five percent of GDP but do not yet have the industrial capacity to speed up production lines.

"European defence industries are struggling," said Yasar Aydin, a foreign policy expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Countries are trying to expand their production capacity but are unable to do so at the speed required by the evolving security threats.

"Turkey can help close this gap," he told The New Arab.

A White Paper published by the European Commission in March identified seven critical areas where European industries are lagging, including drones, air defence, electronic warfare, and artillery systems.

Ulgen said that Turkey has capabilities in at least five of the areas that the EU needs to address, listing autonomous weapons, smart munitions, and advanced electronic warfare systems combat proven against Russian assets.

Countries with less developed defence industries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans have been the biggest buyers of Turkish arms.

Drone-makers Baykar and TAI have sold to a handful of EU member states in the region, including Poland, Croatia and Romania.

Some countries are turning to armoured vehicle companies to develop their own industrial bases. In what was one of the industry's largest deals yet, Otokar last year signed a 859 million-euro deal to build more than 1,000 of its combat vehicles in Romania.

In Hungary, Nurol Makina has partnered with German defence giant Rheinmetall to locally produce hundreds of its vehicles.

An official at armoured vehicle manufacturer FNSS, a subsidiary of conglomerate Nurol, told The New Arab that the company has had "significant success" in increasing European sales.

Deepening involvement

In recent months, interest in Turkish arms has been growing in Western Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean.

In Italy, one of Europe's most advanced defence economies, Baykar has signed two landmark deals over the past year: one with Leonardo to manufacture drones and another to buy troubled aircraft manufacturer Piaggio, its first overseas acquisition.

TAI is working with Airbus to supply Spain with trainer jet aircraft and Turkish shipyards are building logistics ships for the Portuguese navy.

Meanwhile, Germany recently turned to Repkon to help it establish new factories to produce 155mm artillery shells.

Whether Turkish companies will go on to establish themselves as key players in Europe will depend in large part on gaining access to the EU's 150 billion euro (US$174.5 bn) rearmament programme.

Currently, the SAFE fund puts restrictions on non-EU suppliers in favour of supporting European companies, though officials at Turkey's Secretariat for Defence Industries (SSB) – the country's main procurement and defence-industrial strategy agency – are courting the EU to widen access.

"The rising demand in Europe, particularly in naval platform, air defence systems, unmanned systems and electronic warfare, aligns closely with the existing capabilities of the Turkish defence ministry. We stand ready to support any initiative that will strengthen Europe's defence capabilities," SSB chief Haluk Gorgun said in a statement.

Companies are projecting optimism about their prospects for making further inroads on the continent.

A TAI official said that many countries in Western Europe have expressed interest in its products, including the Anka drone series and the KAAN fighter jet. A representative of missile manufacturer Roketsan said the company is "in talks with many different countries" but declined to provide more information.

Political differences

For all its progress, Turkey's ambition to become a key player in Europe faces serious political challenges.

"Turkey is a ready and willing partner but for political reasons some countries in Europe seem to be dragging their feet on the process," Turkish defence expert Sitki Egeli told The New Arab.

Front and centre are concerns about becoming dependent on a country that is seen by some EU members are presenting a security threat and others as being an economic competitor.

Greece and Cyprus are opposed to closer ties due to ongoing disputes with Turkey, while France sees Turkish companies as competitors to its own defence industry.

Political parties in Germany are more open to buying outside of the EU but face domestic political pressures against increasing reliance on Turkish arms.

Others express concerns about human rights and what they perceive to be Turkey's authoritarian model of government.

All of this is makes gaining access to the SAFE programme more uncertain amid pushback from some member states.

The likelihood of Turkey establishing a central position in European markets is "highly questionable" without buy-in from France and Germany, given the size of their economies and influence on EU policymaking, Egeli said.

Others argue that a closer defence relationship could help to narrow the risk of political fallout down the line.

Ulgen spoke of the "political trickle-down effects" of closer cooperation that could reinforce the relationship.

Better integrating Turkey into Europe's defence industry would create "a vested interest on both sides to protect and advance the bilateral political relationship," he said.

"This would act as a buffer in times of crisis and as a stimulus for improving relations in other times."

Matthew Hoare is a journalist at The New Arab.

Follow him on X: @matt_h_9