Iraqi observers warn that President Trump's Gaza plan could destabilise Iraq if Hamas responds with aggression or refuses to cooperate.
President Trump issued a 20-point ultimatum to Hamas, requiring the release of hostages, disarmament, and the transfer of Gaza's control to an interim authority within a specified timeframe. The plan includes provisions for reconstruction and security guarantees, but does not address the recognition of a Palestinian state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for the plan, which was communicated to Hamas through Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries. As the death toll in Gaza surpasses 66,000 and widespread destruction continues, regional pressure on Hamas is increasing.
Iraqi politicians, lawmakers, and analysts express scepticism regarding the plan's prospects. They argue that Hamas is unlikely to accept the proposal and caution that its rejection could have significant consequences for Iraq.
The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet issued an official statement regarding the plan. Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region, has expressed support for the proposal and commended President Trump's leadership.
"I encourage all parties to engage constructively in dialogue and demonstrate the spirit of compromise in the interest of achieving lasting peace, security, and prosperity for the people of the region," he wrote on a post on the X social media platform.
Kurdish lawmaker Muthanna Amin, from the Iraqi Parliament's Foreign Relations Committee, told The New Arab, "If Hamas accepts the plan, peace will follow, and the region will move away from war and instability."
"Whether Hamas accepts the plan depends on negotiations and possible changes. We expect Hamas to reject the plan as it gives no guarantees. Hamas and Gaza's people are united, and Hamas leaders have no alternative safe haven," Amin remarked. "The Zionist regime and Netanyahu are criminally liable before the International Court of Justice in The Hague for the atrocity against the people of Gaza, and this plan only serves to legitimise the occupation of Gaza further."
"I don't think Hamas will accept this because it could end their political role," political analyst Ramiar Jamal said to TNA. "They are unlikely to agree to terms that remove their influence, require them to surrender their weapons, and do not guarantee a Palestinian state. The plan promises reconstruction and a hostage exchange, but not a sovereign state, which has historically been Hamas’s stated goal."
Jamal added that even a partial agreement could have an impact on Iraq. "Any Hamas decision may directly impact Iraq. If accepted, Iraq could gain regional trade, and militants may reduce hostility toward US interests. If rejected, Israel and the US may escalate in Gaza, and Iraqi militias might target American or Israeli interests. Iraq could then face a broader conflict it is not ready for."
Hamas is under pressure from regional and Arab states to consider certain aspects of the plan. "Gaza is devastated, there is ongoing loss of life, and the humanitarian situation is severe," Jamal said. "This increases pressure on Hamas to make concessions. However, without clear assurances for the establishment of a Palestinian state, it may be difficult for them to accept the entire proposal."
Ihsan Al-Shamari, head of the Strategic Thinking Centre and a professor of politics at Baghdad University, described the proposal as potentially ending Hamas's political influence, arguing that the short deadline imposed by President Trump increases pressure without providing a sustainable path to peace.
Al-Shamari stated that Iraq's position remains cautious and unresolved, noting that the government has not formally articulated its stance and appears to align more closely with Iranian interests than with a distinct national strategy.
He warned that escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could have serious repercussions for Iraq, as domestic factions may feel compelled to respond, thereby increasing the risk of regional instability.