Too early to predict Trump's policy on Iraq: former US diplomat Barbara A. Leaf

In an exclusive interview with The New Arab, Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, discussed the evolving approach of the Trump administration towards Iraq. 

She expressed caution in predicting President Trump's next moves, noting that it is still early in the administration's tenure to determine a clear course of action for Iraq.

After participating in a panel on the major political developments in the Middle East and the strategic corridor linking Iran to the Levant, Ambassador Barbara answered key questions at the 9th Sulaimani Forum in Sulaimaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, on Wednesday.

"I don't think you’ll see exactly the same approach as you did in his first term," she said, referencing a noticeable shift in the administration's Middle East strategy.

Leaf highlighted a significant change in the Trump administration's foreign policy approach, pointing to a recent meeting between US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The two diplomats are expected to meet again soon, underscoring the shifting dynamics in US-Iran relations.

"Things are very different this time around," Leaf remarked, suggesting that while the administration's stance on issues such as troop presence in Iraq or Syria remains uncertain, it is likely to be different from the previous term.

The interview also touched on the question of the pro-Iran Iraqi militias, particularly whether their dismantling would be a topic of discussion in upcoming US-Iran talks in Geneva. Leaf speculated that it may not be an immediate priority, though it could be raised eventually, given the destabilising impact these militias have had on the region.

"Iran's use of these militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other groups in Syria has been really terrible for the region," she explained, acknowledging the challenges posed by such armed groups, particularly their attacks on US forces.

Leaf was also asked about the diplomatic implications of the arrest warrant issued by Iraq for President Trump, to which she responded that it was a sovereign decision by Iraq, but she had not heard of any ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue.

Regarding the fate of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli-Russian researcher kidnapped in Iraq since March 2023, Leaf condemned her captivity as "outrageous," describing the situation as "criminal." Tsurkov, who was conducting research on pro-Iran militias and Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, was reportedly held by the Iran-aligned Kataib Hezbollah.

Despite efforts to secure her release, Leaf declined to provide further details about any negotiations, saying the matter was a private diplomatic discussion.

In February, Adam Boehler, the US hostage envoy, warned that the Iraqi government would be seen as complicit in Tsurkov’s continued detention if she was not released. The Iraqi Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, has confirmed that Tsurkov is still alive and stated that the government is working on facilitating her release. Tsurkov, a doctoral student at Princeton University, was kidnapped after leaving a restaurant in Baghdad, where she had been meeting journalists.

Tsurkov's abduction has strained US-Iraq relations, with reports emerging that the Trump administration rejected a prisoner exchange offer from Iraqi militias. This would have involved the release of prisoners linked to Iran in exchange for Tsurkov's freedom.

According to reports from Asharq al-Awsat, the administration's refusal to proceed with the deal has left her fate uncertain.