A tight Israeli election: Netanyahu is desperately trying to not lose votes

General trends in opinion polls published in recent days indicate that the electoral contest in Israel remains tight and that the gap between the two blocs could ultimately be decided by just two or three seats, following the closure of Israel's electoral lists on Tuesday evening, 8 September. 

According to recent opinion polls, the current governing coalition is expected to win around 52 seats out of 120, while the opposition bloc is projected to secure between 53 and 55 seats, with Arab parties winning around 13 seats.

The opposition bloc is seeking to raise its tally to around 56-57 seats, bringing it closer to the possibility of forming a government without relying heavily on Arab parties.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aims to keep the opposition below the 55-seat threshold, based on the assessment that any alternative government would then need, in one way or another, the support of at least one Arab list, even if that support were limited to abstaining from a confidence vote.

The Netanyahu camp is betting that a minority government based on 55 or 56 Knesset members and requiring external Arab support would face sustained political and public pressure and attempts to delegitimise it. This could shorten its lifespan and weaken its ability to govern.

Israeli electoral lists

Under these circumstances, the shape and order of Israeli electoral lists, as well as the inclusion of new figures with public or political weight, have assumed an importance that goes beyond the parties' internal calculations.

They could directly affect each camp's ability to tip the balance in an election that appears extremely close.

This explains the rush by Israeli parties in recent days, ahead of submitting their lists to the Central Elections Committee, to reshuffle their ranks and complete their alliances.

Within the opposition camp, the days before the submission of Israel's electoral lists saw intensive efforts to rearrange the internal contest and settle two central questions: which party would be the largest in the bloc, and who would lead it in the race for the premiership?

The most prominent development was the completion of the alliance between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid under the "Together" list, whose final composition was announced last Sunday, 6 Sep.

Lapid retained about 40% of the positions on the joint list, while the leading positions included administrative and security figures.

The formation of the Bennett-Lapid alliance was accompanied by high expectations that it could become the central force in the opposition camp and that Bennett could emerge as the leading candidate for prime minister.

However, these expectations were not realised.

The alliance failed to secure leadership of the bloc and remained at around 12-13 seats in most opinion polls.

The alliance created direct competition within the opposition camp, particularly with the "Yashar" party led by Gadi Eisenkot, who moved within a short period from a relatively secondary political position in the 2022 election to the strongest candidate in the bloc for prime minister and to leading the largest party in it, according to recent opinion polls, which give it around 24-25 seats.

This rise is particularly significant because "Yashar" remains a new party, lacking an established party structure, broad grassroots support, branches and organisational cadres comparable to those of established parties.

Its list also does not yet include a large number of well-known political figures.

Eisenkot therefore sought in the days before the lists were submitted to strengthen his list with political, security and administrative figures who have a public profile and relative acceptance within Israeli society, with the aim of consolidating his momentum in the polls and preventing a decline after the final composition of the list was revealed.

In this context, Hili Tropper, who defected from Blue and White, led by former defence minister Benny Gantz, joined him last Sunday after the collapse of the partnership he had formed with Yoaz Hendel.

Tropper was placed sixth on the "Yashar" list.

The move reflects Eisenkot's attempt to broaden the party's image from a list centred mainly on him into a wider political framework capable of competing not only for centrist votes but also for leadership of the opposition camp.

At this stage, Eisenkot is trying to prevent the race for leadership of the opposition camp from becoming an open contest, not only with the "Together" alliance but also with the Yisrael Beiteinu party led by Avigdor Lieberman.

Yisrael Beiteinu is one of the main representatives of the secular nationalist right in the Israeli party map.

Historically, it has relied on a broad electoral base among immigrants from the former Soviet Union while making continued efforts to expand its presence among other sections of Israeli society.

When presenting his electoral list, Lieberman announced that he considered himself a candidate for prime minister.

However, this ambition does not, so far, correspond with the electoral strength given to him by opinion polls, with his party receiving only around eight seats in most polls published in recent days.

Nevertheless, his declaration of candidacy reflects the multiple centres of power within the opposition camp and confirms that the camp has not yet settled on the identity of the candidate who will lead it against Netanyahu.

Thus, the days before the submission of the lists in Israel were decisive for opposition parties, which were occupied with trying to organise the internal contest, consolidate the positions of parties and candidates, and divide shares within the bloc.

So far, these moves have not reduced the opposition's overall strength, which has remained stable at around 54-55 seats in most recent polls.

However, they have also failed to raise its expected representation.

The Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, concluded its internal elections last July.

Most of its prominent lawmakers retained leading positions on the list, alongside the inclusion of figures associated with protest movements against the Netanyahu government.

Unlike the centrist parties, the party is not currently fighting for survival or negotiating a merger. Instead, it appears more stable organisationally and politically.

The party has so far enjoyed a clear degree of internal cohesion, which spared it the need for emergency arrangements in the final hours before the lists were submitted.

Indeed, the party had begun its election campaign some time ago, benefiting from the stability of its position in opinion polls and the clarity of its political identity compared with other parties in the opposition camp.

In the coalition camp, Netanyahu worked on two parallel tracks.

The first was to try to reduce the risk of wasting right-wing votes by pushing for mergers or understandings between smaller parties that might fail to cross the electoral threshold.

The second was to complete the Likud list and add figures from outside the party who could help broaden its support base and improve its electoral share.

The contest over the ordering of the lists has thus become a key part of the struggle for every seat, rather than merely an organisational stage preceding the election.

The Likud list was not closed until hours before the closure of Israel's electoral lists, as Netanyahu retained several positions in which he is entitled to directly appoint candidates, known within the party as "reserved positions".

Netanyahu has already used this authority to secure Defence Minister Israel Katz fourth place and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar fifth place.

In the final hours before the lists were submitted, he continued working to bring in figures with a public profile and broad popularity in an attempt to increase the appeal of the Likud list and broaden its electoral base, which could help the party improve its share in the upcoming election.

However, Netanyahu's most serious problem does not come from within Likud itself but from the parties to its right, particularly far-right parties.

Foremost among them are Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Jewish Power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Ben-Gvir refused to contest the election on a joint technical list with Religious Zionism, preferring to run independently in an attempt to consolidate his position as the leading far-right leader in Israel.

Netanyahu's concern was heightened by the emergence of a new far-right party, "Amkha Yisrael", led by Ofer Winter, a former Israeli army commander and one of the figures associated with the hardline religious Zionist current.

The presence of multiple lists in this camp means that some right-wing votes could be distributed among small parties hovering around the electoral threshold, increasing the risk of wasting votes that could prove decisive in a closely fought contest to form the next government.

Winter is Netanyahu's problem

Smotrich, whose party had remained around the electoral threshold in a large number of polls in recent months, succeeded in reaching an agreement with Moshe Feiglin and the far-right "Zehut" party to contest the election on a joint list.

Recent opinion polls indicate that the merger achieved its main objective, with the alliance now clearing the electoral threshold and winning around five or six seats.

As for Itamar Ben-Gvir, he preferred to contest the election on an independent list as part of his effort to consolidate his position as the leading far-right leader.

In this context, he worked to strengthen the Jewish Power list by bringing in Knesset member Tali Gottlieb, who moved from Likud, and placing her second on the list.

Opinion polls give the party around seven or eight seats, allowing Ben-Gvir, unlike in his previous attempts, to contest the election from a more secure electoral position.

Meanwhile, former general Ofer Winter insisted on contesting the election independently and submitted his electoral list last Monday, despite pressure from Netanyahu to push him to join the alliance between Smotrich and Feiglin.

Winter's party currently receives around four seats in opinion polls, putting it close to the danger zone around the electoral threshold.

Winter's decision to keep his list independent is therefore a source of concern for Netanyahu, because even a limited decline in its popularity could lead to the loss of a bloc of right-wing votes and seats.

Netanyahu's problem is therefore not distributed equally among the components of the far right.

Ben-Gvir is now relatively far from the danger of falling below the electoral threshold, while the Smotrich-Feiglin alliance has improved Religious Zionism's chances of crossing it.

By contrast, Ofer Winter's party remains the most vulnerable link and the greatest source of concern for Netanyahu, because even a limited decline in its popularity could lead to the loss of right-wing votes that his camp urgently needs in a contest that could be decided by one or two seats.

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.