Syrian refugees in limbo as Europe reassesses asylum after Assad's fall

Two years after arriving in Germany from Syria's rural Raqqa, Khaled, 35, still does not have his residency. Today, as European countries are now reconsidering Syrian asylum claims following the end of the Assad regime, Khaled fears his application will be rejected, leaving him stranded abroad, and his family stuck in their village.

After the Assad regime's rapid collapse and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's assumption of power, Germany's approach to refugees dramatically shifted, with increasing discussion of returns because Syria has "stabilised".

But Khaled says this doesn't apply to him—his village falls under Syrian Democratic Forces control, and as an Arab, he faced harassment that escalated to forced conscription. He fled one night toward Turkey, then crossed the sea before reaching Germany.

Khaled's life has become a waiting game. He feels trapped—unable to return to his village for fear of SDF arrest, yet unable to relocate elsewhere in Syria due to dire economic conditions.

"A Syrian from Damascus, Aleppo or Hama can return with acceptable probability because most of these cities are not destroyed," Khaled said. "But if his governorate is Raqqa or Deir ez-Zor, it's impossible to return. He and his family will have to be patient and wait—there's no future in Syria, and Arabs from the Jazira region cannot go back."

Since the Syrian revolution erupted in 2011, millions have fled war and the Assad regime's brutal persecution. Europe opened its doors to receive applications, especially in 2015.

But this approach quickly changed following Assad's fall, with Europeans viewing the threat to most Syrians as having been removed.

The EU recently issued updated guidelines for asylum applications from Syrian citizens that may affect approximately 110,000 Syrians whose applications remained pending at the end of September. The EU Asylum Agency stated that Assad opponents and military draft evaders "are no longer at risk of persecution."

However, other groups may still be considered at risk, including people connected to the previous government and members of "ethnic-religious groups", including Alawis, Christians and Druze.

Bassam al-Ahmad, executive director of Syrians for Truth and Justice, explained that before the regime's fall, refugee status was applied to virtually any Syrian arriving in Europe, with few exceptions.

"Today, Europeans view the story differently," al-Ahmad said. "If the refugee fled because of the regime, that regime no longer exists." He emphasised that this period's focus should be on "dignified and voluntary return" without forced repatriation, as in Syria's reconstruction with European assistance.

Fadi Mosilli, a legal consultant in Germany and refugee rights activist, explained that Syria remains classified as unsafe by Germany and the EU because the state doesn't control all Syrian geography, plus active situations in the south, with the SDF, and events on the coast.

Suspension of asylum applications occurred six months before Assad's fall. Subsequently, those who cited fear of Assad or fleeing the army now face rejection due to the elimination of stated causes.

"Before the regime fell, the majority targeted in the revolution were Sunnis, so they took into account that after the government's fall, this group no longer had problems with the new government," Mosilli said. However, if a new arrival provides evidence of personal threats from the new government, individual circumstances matter more than sectarian affiliation.

Mosilli stressed that no country can send refugees without the receiving country's acceptance, explaining why Austrian, German and Danish delegations came to Syria seeking deportation agreements. The Syrian government refused, even for criminals.

He distinguished between deportation and application rejection: "Many nationalities had applications rejected but remained in Germany, obtaining work permits, studying language, improving their situations. If work continues for two years, they can apply for non-asylum residency. After five years of work, residency can be modified to open residency, then citizenship."

Currently, targeted groups for asylum withdrawal include those who visited Syria without citizenship and criminals.

Syrian contributions

Barakat Obeid, a Syrian social activist and social education student in Germany, noted that application review targets those who visited Syria or pose a danger to German society. Still, those working, studying a language, or with children in schools face no harassment.

Obeid argued that classifying Syria as safe primarily relates to reconstruction. "As long as houses are destroyed and camps exist internally and in neighbouring countries, priority goes to the country's people and displaced in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan," he said.

"German society needs Syrians," Obeid said. "Syrian doctors in Germany, both naturalised and non-naturalised, number 22,000. Training each productive doctor costs one million euros—they saved enormous sums by accepting graduated doctors. Many Syrians work in transportation, study at Germany's finest universities, and thousands work in social services."

"This doesn't mean there are no negatives—we came as a complete society. Some arrived psychologically affected by war and became criminals or used drugs, but these represent a small percentage compared to Syrian achievements," Obeid added.

Risk assessment

The situation extends beyond Germany. Yousef Bakdash, a member of the Syrian-Danish organisation Douzana, explained that Danish Immigration Service reports concluded that freedom of expression has diminished month by month since Assad's fall.

The report discussed weak security capacity and classified Damascus and Aleppo as the "least problematic" Syrian areas, while rural regions ranked worse. Religious minorities and non-religious people were categorised as extremely high-risk groups.

Regarding the possibility of a return, another report mentioned widespread local conflicts with no government capacity to control them. From the fall until September, 10,672 people were killed across Syria. Crime and kidnapping rates increased, with repeated revenge waves against former regime affiliates.

Challenges regarding return included the inability to obtain housing, destroyed infrastructure, high living costs, very weak health and education systems, lack of employment, risk of social or sectarian revenge on returnees, especially if connected to the previous regime, and minimal government protection.

The Danish Immigration Service recently announced it will summon Syrians from camps for asylum interviews, with individual assessment. Processing will take months longer than usual. "From my experience with the Danish Immigration Service, they mean: we won't give you residencies before reviewing next year's reports," Bakdash said.

Germany's Federal Ministry of the Interior currently reviews thousands of existing protection documents for Syrian citizens, resulting in the withdrawal of 552 people.

Through 30 November 2025, 16,737 reviews were completed. Six cases had constitutionally guaranteed asylum cancelled, 268 lost refugee status under the Geneva Convention, 184 lost subsidiary protection, and 94 had deportation bans cancelled. Protection remained valid in 16,185 cases, with 20,428 cases still under consideration.

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.