Southern Yemen on the edge as government in Aden holds first cabinet session under fire

Aden, the internationally recognised Yemeni government's temporary capital, has not seen tension like this in years. Last Thursday, as Prime Minister Shayea Mohsen al-Zindani chaired the new government's first cabinet session at the Masheq Presidential Palace, protesters linked to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council attempted to storm the compound.

At least one person was killed, and 11 were injured, according to security forces, while the STC put the injury toll at 21. The council issued a flat rejection of the new government's legitimacy.

What unfolded outside the palace was not a passing security incident. It was the latest eruption of a conflict over power, identity, and competing regional agendas that has been building in Yemen's south for years.

On the street, the divisions are personal and sharp.

Wathiq al-Azani, 35, who joined the demonstrations outside Masheq Palace, called on STC president Aidarous al-Zubaidi to organise a new mass rally in Aden.

"We must continue the struggle until the northern ministers are gone and we restore the southern state," he told The New Arab. "We want no dialogue. Saudi-sponsored dialogue failed before it started. Our offices were shut down, our media figures and activists arrested."

Saad Ubaid, 28, shared the same position.

"The push for a southern state is not new. We have been in constant movement for years," he remarked. "But Saudi pressure and the failure of Rashad al-Alimi's government across every sector, combined with its determination to erase the STC, is what drives people into the streets. When peaceful protests are met with weapons, chaos and violence follow. Whoever can bring millions onto the streets has the stronger claim to govern."

Nayzan Tawfiq, a journalist at the official Aden newspaper Al-Thawra, offered a different reading.

He described cautious optimism since the new government took shape, citing Saudi-funded fuel grants that have stabilised electricity supply, regular payment of military and civilian salaries, and improved security in Aden.

"The citizen today wants a state of institutions, stable services, and security," he said. "Any setback will prolong people's suffering and block recovery for everyone."

A partnership that collapsed in Hadramout

Political analyst Hussam Radman, a researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, traced the current rupture to December 2025, when the STC moved into Hadramout and was met with a sharp response from the government and Saudi Arabia.

The STC lost the provinces it controlled, and al-Zubaidi fled Aden. A faction of STC leadership in Riyadh, represented by Abu Zura al-Muhrami, subsequently backed dissolving the council. Al-Zubaidi's faction refused and has maintained an escalatory posture since.

"What is happening now is an attempt to challenge the legitimacy of the STC's dissolution and assert that it remains a legitimate entity representing the southern cause," Radman said to TNA. "The new government's power balance has sidelined al-Zubaidi and the UAE. The message is clear: the government's work will not be easy."

The STC was founded in 2017 to represent southerners seeking independence from the north of Yemen. Since the 2019 Riyadh Agreement, it has become part of the legitimate government framework, and in 2022, it joined the Presidential Leadership Council. That partnership survived years of tension until it broke apart in Hadramout.

Regional competition

Abdulsalam Mohammed, director of the Abaad Centre for Studies and Research, placed the confrontation within a broader geopolitical frame.

"What is happening is a regional geopolitical conflict more than a local one. It reflects the UAE's ambitions over ports, islands, oil, and control over Yemen's decision-making in service of the Abraham Accords project. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is defending its national security and reordering Yemen's political architecture toward a stable neighbour," Mohammed said.

He said Saudi Arabia would not accept southern separation under a separatist leadership allied with the UAE, noting, "That is the fundamental driver behind Saudi Arabia's shifting relationship with the STC."

Political analyst Adel al-Shujaa was more direct. "The STC dissolved itself. You cannot speak of rapprochement between two parties when one no longer exists. But the Saudi-UAE competition using Yemeni instruments will continue," he argued.

"What is coming is prolonged chaos and obstruction of any effort to rebuild the state. Any disorder under the banner of mass protests, including attempts to storm the green zone, is part of UAE pressure to extract partial concessions from its collapsed ambitions in southern Yemen," he added.

Human cost

Shadi Salam, 55, was displaced from Aden to Dhale governorate with his family during the war and returned alone in 2020 to work at Aden port. The new government's formation had made him consider bringing his family back.

The Masheq events changed his calculation.

"I am not just thinking about fleeing renewed conflict. I am thinking about losing my income at the port. My family is one of hundreds of displaced families affected by Aden's ongoing security and political instability. If war breaks out, we will have to leave the governorate permanently. We do not know what fate awaits us," Salam said.

Mustafa Nasr, director of the Centre for Economic Studies, outlined three scenarios for Aden. In the first, government and diplomatic staff return to the city, consulates reopen, and conditions improve for international organisations and investors. In the second, security deteriorates across Aden and surrounding provinces, with assassinations, illegal violations, and sustained protests blocking state institutions. In the third, the government relocates its temporary capital to an alternative city, possibly Hadramout, if it cannot function fully from Aden.

Meanwhile, Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi has proposed forming a supreme military committee to unify anti-Houthi forces, a step that arrives as 21 million Yemenis depend on food and health assistance, and UN humanitarian flights face repeated disruptions.

Radman said Saudi Arabia has already shown its hand: STC offices have been closed and activists arrested.

Whether that pressure holds, or whether al-Zubaidi's faction finds new room to manoeuvre, will determine whether Aden stabilises or becomes, again, a city at war with itself.

This story was published in collaboration with Egab.