Sharm el-Sheikh summit: Trump to launch a new Middle East order?

Leaders and diplomats from more than 20 countries are gathering in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday for a global summit to formally declare an end to Israel's catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip.

Led by US President Donald Trump and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the gathering of Arab and European countries is taking place a few days after mediators finally brokered a ceasefire and captive-exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel.

For the Trump administration, the deal is the first step in an ambitious strategy to remake the region. Its 20-point peace plan is aimed at, not just ending the seven-decade conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, but - as Trump told Israeli lawmakers on Monday - ushering in the "dawn of a new Middle East".

Victory lap

Sharm el-Sheikh will host the second leg of Trump's regional victory tour following his flying visit to Israel earlier on Monday.

Timed to coincide with the release of the Israeli captives from Gaza, the US president was treated to dozens of standing ovations in the Israeli Knesset and a gushing speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who declared him the "greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House".

Trump will expect to receive a similar welcome when he heads to the Red Sea, where he will cast himself as the Middle East's peacemaker and the one who ended "centuries" of conflict between Palestinians and Israelis.

During the summit, Trump will become only the second US president to be awarded Egypt's highest state honour, the Order of the Nile.

The event will also be something of a victory lap for Sisi, handing Egypt the international prestige of being the centre of regional diplomacy.

Egypt – which, along with Qatar and the US, was a key mediator in the conflict – will be remembered, not just for hosting the decisive negotiations, but for serving as the location where the agreement was formally signed.

Signing the peace

Headlining the summit will be a signing ceremony for the agreement that stopped Israel's assault on Gaza and paved the way to the release of the Israeli captives and almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Signing the agreement amid the pomp of a major global summit aims to draw a line under the war. Since announcing the deal, Trump has repeatedly emphasised that the war is over, a move that makes it harder for the Israelis to resume the bombing after the captives are released.

The conversations will now turn to the most contentious aspects of the Trump peace plan: The reconstruction of Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and its transfer of power to a new, independent authority.

Arab states are faced with several urgent problems: Who will fund the reconstruction effort, how can Hamas be persuaded to surrender its weapons, and who will contribute troops to the multinational peacekeeping force?

It's unlikely that answers to any of these questions will be found at Sharm el-Sheikh, but the process of moving to the so-called 'second phase' of the Gaza peace will be front-and-centre of discussions.

Remaking the Middle East

At the heart of the 20-point plan is what Trump hopes will be the "dawn of the new Middle East".

The ambition at the heart of the summit was writ large on the guest list, which aimed to bring together mortal foes Iran and Israel under the same roof to move past conflict and settle old scores.

Though Netanyahu and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian both declined the invitation, the summit will nonetheless present an opportunity for the Trump administration to press its vision for a fully normalised Middle East with Israel as its military hegemon.

Persuading Saudi Arabia to join the UAE, Morocco, Sudan, and Bahrain in establishing formal ties with Tel Aviv has been the Holy Grail of US Middle East policy under both the Biden and the Trump administrations. Now that Trump has declared the war to be over, discussions with Saudi officials about normalising with Israel will likely intensify.

US officials have made no secret of their long-term aim to also bring Syria and Lebanon within the Abraham Accords framework.

Indonesia, which has been the only country to publicly announce its ambitions to normalise with Israel, may be a sign of things to come. The president of the Muslim-majority country, Prabowo Subianto, plans to make a historic visit to Israel following the summit.