With Saudi-UAE showdown, can Egypt afford taking sides in Yemen secession crisis?

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan paid a brief visit to Cairo on 5 January to discuss with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatti a range of issues of mutual concern, especially the evolving situation in Yemen.

Egypt walks a fine line between protecting its economic and security interests, on the one hand, and safeguarding its close ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on the other, as the crisis over the possible secession of southern Yemen unfolds.

Cairo's predicament began when Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a Yemeni separatist political and military organisation that, in recent weeks, has overrun large swathes of southern and eastern Yemen.

On 2 January, the council issued a constitutional declaration for an independent state in southern Yemen, a move that enraged the Saudis, who saw it as a threat to their country's national security.

The declaration was issued only two days after a Saudi-led military coalition carried out airstrikes against an arms and vehicles shipment at the port of Mukalla in eastern Yemen, which was allegedly sent by the UAE to the separatist group.

The UAE denied the Saudi accusation, but pulled out its remaining troops from Yemen on the following day.

The widening scope of events in Yemen and the intensifying confrontation between Riyadh and Abu risk deepening rifts among Arab states.

Egypt, particularly, has found itself uncomfortably caught in the middle of this intra-Arab Gulf strife.

Tightrope

Yemen's location on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic choke point linking the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, makes this Arab country of extreme importance to Cairo, analysts said.

Speaking to The New Arab, international relations researcher Islam al-Mansi stressed that the turmoil in Yemen poses a threat to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and, consequently, to the Suez Canal.

"The same turmoil raises the alert in Egypt because it will negatively affect the Egyptian economy," al-Mansi said.

Southern Yemen's potential secession comes as the Suez Canal returns to normal operations after two difficult years stemming from Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.

Attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis militia on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in those years caused a sizeable loss of canal revenues, having scared international shipping lines away to the Cape of Good Hope.

The Suez Canal is a crucial source of national income for Egypt, alongside remittances from Egyptian nationals abroad, agricultural and industrial exports, and tourism.

Egypt's close ties with the two make tensions between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh a sensitive issue in Cairo, analysts note.

"Egypt maintains deep, strategic ties with both nations, rooted in shared visions on regional issues and aligned development and political objectives," political analyst Negih Mustafa told TNA. "That is precisely why Cairo consistently pursues a measured, balanced diplomacy whenever tensions arise between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi."

Lying opposite the Egyptian Red Sea coast, Saudi Arabia is important for security in the Red Sea basin.

Beyond the historical relations between Egypt and the kingdom and the kingdom's religious significance for Egypt's predominantly Muslim population, as the site of the annual Islamic pilgrimage, Saudi Arabia is also a crucial economic partner of Egypt.

With cumulative investments totalling $25 billion as of the end of 2025, Saudi Arabia is one of Egypt's largest foreign investors.

In recent years, the oil-rich nation has been a staunch economic and political backer of Cairo, including during the 2010-2011 regional uprisings, which cost Egypt tens of billions of dollars in losses.

About 1.5 million Egyptians also live in Saudi Arabia, sending billions of dollars in remittances to Egypt each year, which constitutes an important lifeline for the Egyptian economy.

Abu Dhabi is also a crucial partner of Cairo, having played a similar political and economic role during the regional unrest since 2011.

It is a financial backer of last resort, having come to the rescue of the Egyptian economy on numerous occasions in the past decade.

With around $65 billion in investments, the UAE is by far the largest foreign investor in Egypt.

Its latest $35 billion flagship deal to build an opulent tourist project on Egypt's Mediterranean coast signalled its central role in the Egyptian economy, particularly as the 2024 deal came at a difficult time for the economy.

Approximately half a million Egyptians also live in the UAE.

Finding that balanced approach

On 3 January, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement where it avoided directly criticising either Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

Instead, it expressed concern about the escalating situation in the war-torn Arab country and called for comprehensive political solutions that address the root causes of the crisis as the only way to end the conflict in Yemen.

Nonetheless, agreement with the Saudi position, particularly regarding the need to preserve Yemen's unity and territorial integrity, became clear during the Saudi foreign minister's meetings with the Egyptian president and foreign minister on 5 January.

The meeting emphasised coherence in the Egyptian and Saudi positions on the need for reaching peaceful solutions to regional crises, ones that preserve the unity and territorial integrity of states, especially Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and the Gaza Strip, the Egyptian Presidency said in a statement, following Prince bin Farhan's meeting with the Egyptian president.

Whether this will strain Cairo's relations with Abu Dhabi or prompt the latter to take any retaliatory measures in the coming period remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, in Cairo, there is a belief that Egypt will make concerted efforts to bridge the gap between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in the coming period to resolve the Yemeni crisis and prevent the two capitals from further drifting apart.

"Egypt is poised to leverage its strong influence in both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to steer the Yemen crisis towards a political and diplomatic resolution," political analyst Mohamed Rabie told TNA.

He expressed confidence in Cairo's ability to mediate between the two sides.

"A peaceful settlement in Yemen would serve the interests of all parties involved and prevent further escalation of regional tensions," Rabie argued.