The ripple effects of the Hormuz blockade on essential commodities

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime artery for global trade, has sent shockwaves far beyond oil and gas, with the blockade proving a serious strain on the accessibility and costs of several key commodities on which the global economy hinges.

The ripple effects of Iran's threats to target vessels through the narrow waterway are spreading swiftly to other sectors that rely heavily on the region’s exports, from aluminium and fertilisers to plastics and industrial chemicals.

Aluminium

The essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an immediate shock to the global aluminium supply chain.

The Middle East, which accounts for roughly 9 percent of the world’s aluminium output, produced an estimated 6.159 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025.

With smelters across the region now unable to export the metal or import the raw material alumina, which is essential for production, the supply disruption has been palpable from the onset.

Vessel tracking data show that ships carrying aluminium-related raw materials are being forced to divert to new destinations amid a near-total closure of maritime traffic in the region.

Analysts in Europe have warned that a prolonged disruption may deepen the deficit in the continent’s aluminium market, which relies on the MENA region for around 20 percent of its imports.

In the Gulf, production challenges have mounted.

Emirates Global Aluminium’s alumina refinery at Al-Taweelah, near the UAE’s Khalifa Port, is the region’s main importer of bauxite, which is the primary ore refined into alumina before being smelted into aluminium. The blockage has constrained the flow of these materials.

In Bahrain, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), the country’s sole aluminium smelter, announced the shutdown of three smelting lines that constitute about 19 percent of its capacity to help relieve the impact of the disruption.

Earlier this month, Alba declared force majeure on its contracts, citing its inability to ship metals to its customers.

These disruptions have translated into market turbulence, with aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange jumping to $3,546.50 per tonne - a near-four-year record high.

Food prices could skyrocket as fertiliser supply chain takes a hit

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has also sent shockwaves through the global agricultural sector by hitting fertiliser supplies.

The waterway is responsible for transporting between a quarter and a third of global raw materials used in fertiliser production, with the Gulf hosting some of the world’s largest fertiliser plants.

The blockade has significantly disrupted the movement of key materials such as ammonia, nitrogen, urea, and sulphur, all vital components in the production of synthetic fertilisers.

Without these inputs, crops will be unable to grow efficiently, with the impact being felt through global food chains, as about half of global food production depends on access to these fertilisers.

While many countries are far from the season where fertilisers are used, analysts warn that basic household staples such as wheat, corn, potatoes, bread, and pasta could see an unprecedented price spike if the blockade is prolonged.

Signs of strain in the market are already apparent, with prices of urea, one of the common types of fertilisers, jumping sharply to more than $600 per tonne as of 16 March from around $450 prior to the 28 February US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Other fertiliser variants are following the same trajectory, markets show, driven by acute supply shortages.

The effects are especially severe for major agricultural economies like India, Brazil and Australia, nations which rely heavily on Gulf fertiliser exports to sustain large crop yields.

Plastics and Industrial Chemicals

The plastics industry, too, is being swept up in the turmoil.

The Gulf is home to some of the largest production facilities of polyethylene, one of the world’s most widely used thermoplastics and a vital part of most packaging materials.

Roughly 84 percent of the Middle East’s polyethylene output depends on the Strait of Hormuz for export, with key destinations in Asia, including China, likely to suffer severe consequences from the passage’s blockage.

Saudi Arabia, for example, operates its main petrochemical hub on its eastern ports along the Persian Gulf, leaving it particularly exposed to the shipping paralysis.

The blockage also poses a threat to global supplies of industrial gases and chemicals such as helium, for which Qatar is one of the world’s leading suppliers and is a key resource for manufacturing, medical technologies, and the aerospace industry.

Petrochemicals and industrial chemicals are likewise among the most important non-energy goods moving through the Strait, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE all key global producers.