Israel convinced new war against Hezbollah in Lebanon 'inevitable': report

Israel is readying for another large-scale assault on Lebanon, according to Israeli media, despite international efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent another war.

Citing an Israeli official, Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported Friday that "the likelihood of the war resuming in Lebanon is high".

Israel is convinced that a "confrontation" on its northern front is inevitable, the report says, claiming that the Lebanese government is unable to disarm Hezbollah on its own.

Reiterating past claims, Israel informed the US that despite ongoing strikes against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group continues to strengthen its capabilities amid sluggish efforts from the Lebanese Army to prevent this from happening.

The US have come to understand that Israel is serious about renewing its war in Lebanon and not supportive of such action, hoping there is still time to prevent a broader escalation.

US officials believe there are strong indications in Lebanon that the disarmament plan is moving forward, and the Lebanese Army is improving its capabilities and improving its efforts in seizing weapons, Yedioth Ahronoth reported.

The head of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) also said earlier this month that there is "no evidence" of Hezbollah rearming in the south, but that if the Lebanese Army fails to carry out the task of disarming Hezbollah by the end of this month, the likelihood of returning to war will increase, the report says.

Israel has for months made unverified claims that Lebanon was not disarming Hezbollah fast enough, in line with a US-brokered ceasefire that ended more than a year of hostilities, including two months of all-out war that left Hezbollah significantly weakened.

Despite the 27 November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has continued to conduct strikes on parts of Lebanon, including some near the capital. It recently assassinated Hezbollah’s chief of staff. It also continues to occupy five border hills in southern Lebanon it deems strategic.

Hezbollah, which views itself as a legitimate resistance group to Israel, has strongly and publicly rejected calls to hand over all its weapons.

Document progress

The Lebanese government has pushed back against Israel’s claims and has repeatedly vowed to end the presence of all armed groups in the country.

The Lebanese army is expected to conclude the first phase of its disarmament plan south of the Litani by year-end before moving north of the river. There are fears that Israel might renew its offensive after the 31 December deadline.

Some media reports have suggested the deadline could be pushed back to give the army more time, but The New Arab could not verify this.

During talks with international envoys in Paris on Thursday, Lebanese Army chief General Rodolphe Haykal agreed to document progress in disarming Hezbollah.

The military has already organised several media and diplomatic tours to the southern border region to prove that it is dismantling militant infrastructure and deploying thousands more troops. It has also given the cabinet monthly updates on its progress.

Officials from France, the US, and Saudi Arabia, who met with Haykal in Paris, agreed to hold a conference in February to support the cash-strapped Lebanese army.

Talks continue

Lebanon hopes talks through a ceasefire monitoring committee headed by the US, which includes Lebanon, Israel, France, and the UN, could help de-escalate tensions and prevent another war.

The committee, known as the "mechanism," held its fifteenth meeting on Friday the UNIFIL base in south Lebanon’s Naqoura, close to the Israeli border.

The mechanism now includes civilian representatives from both Lebanon and Israel – the first such move in decades. Lebanese media reports had suggested that more Lebanese diplomats or experts could be included in the future.

Beirut has stressed its decision to include civilians in the process is a bid to try to prevent another war.

Israel is intensifying its participation in the direct talks by dispatching Israeli Deputy National Security Adviser Dr. Yossi Draznin to the meeting, sources told Axios.

"A source familiar with the details said that officially the meeting is focused on economic cooperation along the border, but less officially it is aimed at trying to prevent a resumption of the war," Axios report Barak Ravid wrote on X.