Netanyahu sees poll boost after Iran war, but coalition still short of majority
Netanyahu's Likud gains seats after Israel's war on Iran, but his coalition still falls short of a majority, with key allies losing ground in a new poll.
3 min read
Netanyahu's Likud party would become the largest party in the Knesset if elections were held, according to a poll [MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images]
A new poll by Israel's Channel 12 suggests that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would gain seats if elections were held in the aftermath of Israel's 12-day war with Iran.
The survey shows Likud rising to 26 seats in the Knesset, an increase of four since a previous poll three weeks earlier, before the conflict began. Despite this gain, Netanyahu’s governing coalition would still fall short of a majority, with the bloc projected to secure only 49 out of 120 seats.
According to the poll, Naftali Bennett's right-wing party would take 24 seats, becoming the second-largest party, followed by Yair Golan's centre-left Democrats with 12. Centrist Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, along with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and Arye Dery’s ultra-Orthodox Shas, would each receive nine seats.
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism would win eight seats, while Benny Gantz's National Unity party would drop to seven. Far-right Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, would secure six seats. Palestinian-majority parties Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am are projected to receive five seats each.
Notably, Bezalel Smotrich's far-right Religious Zionism party, currently a key coalition partner, would fail to pass the electoral threshold, polling just above two percent. The Palestinian nationalist Balad party would also remain outside the Knesset.
The poll also points to a personal boost for Netanyahu. When asked who they preferred as prime minister, 38 percent of respondents chose Netanyahu over Bennett, who polled at 35 percent. Netanyahu also led more comfortably against other opposition figures, with 42 percent support against Lapid’s 21 percent and 40 percent against Gantz’s 21 percent.
Overall, 49 percent of respondents said they favoured holding elections as soon as possible, compared to 42 percent who supported waiting until the scheduled date at the end of 2026.
The survey was conducted in collaboration with the Midgam Institute, Manu Geva, and iPanel, sampling 502 participants with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Former Balad leader Mtanes Shehadeh told The New Arab that Netanyahu’s rise is largely linked to perceptions of success following the war with Iran, though it comes at the expense of his coalition allies.
"Likud appears to be drawing support away from the supporters of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party," Shehadeh said.
Shehadeh also noted a bump in support for Avigdor Lieberman, who has taken a hard line on Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon, and has championed the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews - an issue that recently brought the coalition to the brink of collapse.
While Gaza remains a contentious issue, Shehadeh believes it may have less impact on upcoming elections than Netanyahu’s military narrative around Iran.
"It seems like Netanyahu himself will initiate early elections to capitalise on the positive public sentiment resulting from the war with Iran and make it a central theme of the campaign," Shehadeh added.
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