Mounting opposition confronts Iraqi PM Al-Sudani's bid for a second term

Iraq's outgoing prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, faces increasing opposition to his bid for a second term, according to senior political sources cited by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, The New Arab's Arabic-language sister website. 

On Monday, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) confirmed the results of the November 11 parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition emerged as the largest single bloc, winning 46 seats. 

Sources in Baghdad say these factions have formed a "pressure front" within the ruling Coordination Framework coalition, challenging al-Sudani's chances of renomination.

Last week, the Coordination Framework established a committee to evaluate premiership candidates, stating that all will be assessed against defined criteria before any recommendations are made.

A current member of parliament within the Coordination Framework stated that most armed factions oppose granting al-Sudani another term. One source said, "This is not a new effort—it began nearly a year ago—but it has reached a critical point after the election results."

The source also clarified that this opposition does not represent an official Iranian position, as Tehran has not indicated its stance on the new government.

The list of contenders includes current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, former leader Haider al-Abadi, National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji, intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri, Basra Governor Asaad al-Eidani, and presidential advisor Ali Shukri. Notably, Qasim al-Araji is distinguished by his strong connections to Iran.

Reports indicate the anti-Sudani factions within the Coordination Framework are gaining strength, while a smaller faction still supports him. One MP attributed the opposition to personal and party interests. Some parties now prioritise a prime minister who is technically competent, has no party ties, and will defer key decisions to the coalition.

A senior Coordination Framework member stated that group leaders believe al-Sudani has aligned with the United States on issues related to armed groups’ weapons. According to the MP, both former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali share this view. Coalition leaders and members have met frequently in recent weeks.

The same day, Mohsen al-Mandlawi, leader of the al-Asas Alliance and former first deputy speaker of parliament, announced on X that he had met with Haider al-Gharawi, secretary-general of Ansar Allah al-Awfiya. Both parties reportedly agreed to enhance coordination among national forces to promote Iraq's interests.

On Wednesday, Ali al-Zubaidi, a member of the Coordination Framework, stated that al-Sudani is now "out of the running for a second term." The coalition is considering alternative candidates. Al-Zubaidi explained that disagreements between al-Sudani and major blocs, including State of Law, Badr, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, have led many to believe that retaining al-Sudani would jeopardise bloc unity.

He suggested al-Sudani may instead be offered a ministerial position, given his parliamentary support.

Political analyst Muhannad al-Atabi stated that the current actions among the factions are not solely focused on al-Sudani, but instead reflect broader concerns regarding the future direction of the next government. According to al-Atabi, the factions seek a prime minister who fully aligns with their interests, rather than merely with the coalition.

Al-Atabi noted that external influences will play a significant role in determining Iraq's next prime minister, stating, "You cannot install a prime minister who is made to fit the factions or armed groups while also holding political office."

He added that current tensions reveal a deeper division within the Coordination Framework: one faction seeks to institutionalise the role of armed groups within the state. In contrast, the other aims to maintain the traditional model in which government institutions retain authority.

Analysts warn that if these groups gain more power in Iraq's government, it could strain relations with Washington and hinder international support for security and economic issues. Conversely, if al-Sudani secures a second term despite opposition, the groups may lose political influence and become more confrontational.

The contest over al-Sudani's potential second term remains unresolved, with political tensions rising. The outcome will shape the next government and Iraq's relationship with its armed factions.

Recently, parties in the Coordination Framework, the main Shia political alliance, announced they had regrouped under the same name and blocs, reaffirming their status as the largest parliamentary bloc and their responsibility for forming the next Iraqi government.