Low voter turnout, mistrust, and vote-buying fears cloud Iraq’s upcoming elections

Engagement in Iraq’s 11 November elections is likely to hit a new low, amid weak campaigning from parties, allegations of vote-buying, and widespread mistrust about the process.

Iraqis will vote for 239 legislative seats, who in turn will select a president, a largely ceremonial role, and enable the largest coalition to nominate a prime minister and form a new cabinet for the next four years.

However, turnout is expected to fall below the 40 percent mark due to an expected boycott from the population over the political situation in the country, with the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announcing the start of campaigning on 3 October due to low engagement.

Nevertheless, campaigning on the streets remains weak, with most political parties and electoral lists shifting their focus to paid advertisements in local media and on social media platforms due to a lack of organic reach.

Hogr Chato, head of the Shams Network for monitoring elections, predicted a 30 to 40 percent turnout among eligible voters who renewed their biometrics at the IHEC.

"We have four main tiers of voters. Thirty per cent of Iraqis have partisan affiliations and interests with the ruling parties; these individuals usually vote. In the Kurdistan region, the lowest turnout is in Sulaimaniyah with about 40 per cent," Chato told The New Arab, adding some with biometric cards may or may not vote depending on campaign or vote-buying impacts.

Chato also noted that eight million public sector employees are likely to have the greatest impact on turnout, as they generally participate in voting, particularly those appointed by the ruling elites, who may compel them to vote.

He expects turnout to be 30 to 40 percent of 29 million eligible voters, with 21 million having received biometric cards and more than seven million excluded for not registering earlier.

The constitution says women must hold at least 25 percent of seats, while the women’s quota in the Kurdistan region is 30 percent. 

Regarding voter fraud, he explained that manipulation often occurs through state resources, coercion, or vote purchasing, including pressuring voters through salaries or privileges and using divisive rhetoric, all of which undermine the process.

On 1 October, IHEC confirmed 7,768 candidates had been approved. More than 70 per cent of them are men. The Commission registered 31 alliances, 38 parties, and 75 independent lists.

Aram Jamal, director of the Kurdish Institute for Elections (KIE), told TNA that authorities in the Kurdistan region are not allowing polls, so turnout estimates rely on past elections.

He added that authorities fear regular polling could influence voter behaviour on election day.

"The failure by the two ruling parties in the Kurdistan region, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), to form a new cabinet after last year’s parliamentary elections, and the bad economic situation in the region, will certainly cast a shadow on voter turnout in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq," Jamal said.

"In Iraq, an effective force like Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr’s National Shiite Movement has boycotted the November elections. This would impact the voter turnout, bringing it to less than 43 percent in comparison to the previous Iraqi election held in 2018."

A reliable source in Mosul, speaking anonymously, told The New Arab that the ruling parties have begun a large-scale effort to buy votes.

According to the source, the price for a voting card has reached 300,000 Iraqi dinars, or over $200. Some voters have already received advance payments, but their national identity cards are being withheld by those purchasing their votes until after the election.

Under Iraq’s Penal Code and the amended Election Law No. 12 of 2018 (Law No. 4 of 2023), offences related to electoral cards - such as unlawful possession, trading, voter impersonation, or using cards to tamper with results - are considered criminal acts with violators facing penalties ranging from imprisonment and fines to disqualification from future elections.

Khalil Anwar, a Kurdish youth from Sulaimaniyah, told The New Arab that voters generally mistrust the process, believing ruling parties will continue to hold power regardless of results due to their control over security forces and militias. This belief deepens voter apathy and supports a cycle of manipulation, he said.

He concluded that widespread participation by opposition voters could shift the balance of power, challenging the dominance of ruling parties and raising hope for real change in Iraq's political landscape.