From the military option to the ICJ, how can Egypt respond to Ethiopia's GERD?

Egypt is desperately seeking options to deal with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) after it officially opened on 9 September.

A few hours after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed opened the dam, the Egyptian foreign minister sent a letter to the head of the United Nations Security Council, in which he described the GERD as a project implemented in violation of international law.

"The dam remains a one-sided measure that violates international law and norms, even as Ethiopia tried to give it an illusory cover of legitimacy," the Egyptian foreign minister said in his letter.

He reiterated Egypt's rejection of unilateral Ethiopian actions on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River which gives Egypt over 90% of its fresh water needs.

Egypt, the Egyptian foreign minister added, does not recognise these actions and would not accept their toll on what he described as the "existential interests" of the peoples of downstream states.

The Egyptian foreign minister even noted that his country would not allow Ethiopia to impose one-way domination over water resources.

"Egypt also reserves the right to take all the measures enshrined in international law and the United Nations Charter to defend the existential interests of its people," he added.

The letter and Egypt's previous warnings against the dam threatening its water supply from the Nile River foster conjecture about what the populous Arab state can be up to in the coming period.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned several times in the past years that his country's limited annual water share of 55.5 billion cubic metres from the Nile is a "redline", vowing not to allow any country to take a drop away from this share.

However, whether Egypt has any cards at its disposal to use after the full completion of the dam's construction and official inauguration to protect its Nile water share is debatable.

Pushing harder

The opening of the dam shifts the focus of future negotiations—if any—between Egypt and Sudan, on the one hand, and Ethiopia, on the other, from construction and filling to operation rules.

Almost 14 years of negotiations between the two downstream states and Addis Ababa on the construction and the filling of the dam failed to deliver any results, opening the door for an endless exchange of accusations among them.

Now, Egypt and Sudan will likely be most concerned about a possible reduction in the Nile water's flow, either because of droughts, especially extended ones, or mismanagement on the Ethiopian side.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who brought a host of African leaders together in the opening of the dam, apparently to create a show of multilateralism, assured the two downstream nations that the dam would not pose any threats to their water supply.

"Ethiopia built the dam to prosper, to electrify the entire region and to change the history of black people," Abiy said. "It is absolutely not to harm its brothers."

Such an assurance, oft-repeated by the Ethiopian premier in the past years, even with dam negotiations proving one failure after another, is falling flat in Cairo which is expected to pile up more diplomatic pressure in the coming period to reach a contractual agreement with Ethiopia on the operation of the dam during droughts, especially extended ones.

In opting for a diplomatic course, analysts say, Egypt is aware of the constraints imposed on it by international law, regional dynamics, and its own vulnerabilities.

"Diplomatic action is the most viable method at the present, given Egypt's right to the water of the Nile river," African affairs specialist, Heba al-Beshbeshi, told The New Arab.

"Egypt's Nile River share has been the same for decades, even as its population keeps growing," she added.

Diplomacy was Egypt's preferred path over the past 14 years in the face of a project that threatens to deprive it of a sizeable amount of its water supply from the Nile, its principal source of fresh water.

Egypt's annual river share of 55.5 billion cubic metres is hardly enough to cover the needs of its growing population, and the dam will but make things worse, Egyptian officials say.

Preference for diplomacy was evidenced in the past years by Cairo's insistence on tripartite talks, and mainly driven by Egypt's desire to reach a legally-binding deal. Cairo is also confident that without this deal, the Egyptians can face scarcity risks that stoke their water poverty.

Analysts like al-Beshbeshi call for rallying up support from the African Union and the United Nations to establish binding rules on GERD operation, ones that commit Ethiopia to releasing sufficient amounts of water if the Nile flow drops below 35-40 billion cubic meters a year.

She also called for leveraging alliances with important actors, such as the United States; the European Union; the Arab League, and the World Bank to isolate Ethiopia diplomatically and condition aid or loans on cooperation.

"We need to seek support from everybody, not only to secure our annual water share, but also to increase this share in the light of the steady growth of our country's population," al-Beshbeshi said.

"Continental organisations, such as the European Union and the African Union, can be so helpful in this regard," she added.

Using every drop

One of the options available on the table is for Egypt to resort to international arbitration, including by lodging a complaint at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Water Tribunal on the grounds that the GERD violates the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997 on equitable use and no significant harm.

But this will not achieve any certain results for several reasons, legal experts say.

Ethiopia, which has not officially acceded to the Watercourses Convention, does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICJ, they add.

International law expert Ayman Salama faulted the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Khartoum in containing an article for dispute settlement away from international arbitration.

Article No. 10 of the declaration stipulates that the three states will settle disputes, arising out of the interpretation or implementation of the declaration, amicably through consultation or negotiation in accordance with the principle of good faith.

If the three countries are unable to resolve the dispute through consultation or negotiation, it says, they may jointly request for conciliation, mediation or refer the matter for the consideration of the Heads of State/Head of Government.

"This does away with international arbitration as an option in dealing with the dam issue," Salama told TNA.

The impotence of international arbitration as a possible course of action reduces Egypt's options to a minimum, especially given the risks of acting militarily against the Ethiopian dam.

Before the end of his first term in office, US President Donald Trump alluded to the possibility of Egypt blowing up the dam.

Trump returned a few weeks ago to offer his mediation services, but the general feeling in Cairo is that these services will not be done for naught, particularly with the US president wanting Egypt to take in hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Gaza Strip to open the way for the implementation of his dream project of building Gaza into a "Middle East Riviera".

There is a feeling in Cairo also that the temptation to blow up the dam is a mere trap, aiming at landing Egypt in a big trouble, including by becoming the target of Security Council sanctions, not to mention its possible destructive effects on Sudan which can be fully submerged with the water stored in the GERD's reservoir which is large as the Greater London area, if the dam is bombed.

This is why Egypt's other viable option is for it to maximise benefits from its annual Nile water share, specialists said.

This can be done by investing in internal efficiencies; expanding desalination; improving irrigation, and increasing wastewater reuse, they added.

Egypt has already taken numerous measures in this regard, investing hundreds of millions of dollars on the construction of desalination plants and water treatment stations.

It also initiated an ambitious programme for improving the efficiency of irrigation, including through the lining of thousands of kilometres of irrigation canals and the import of water-saving irrigation machinery.

"Saving water by improving irrigation systems will always be an important policy, regardless of the row over the GERD," veteran water and irrigation expert Nour Abdel Monem told TNA.

"Water is synonymous with life in Egypt, a water-poor country that has to work hard to maximise benefits from every drop of water it has," he added.