Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has reportedly asked the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) not to campaign on his behalf, fearing the group’s involvement could damage his prospects in the November election following progressive rival Abdul El-Sayed’s landmark Democratic primary victory in Michigan.
According to a Saturday report by Axios, Rogers spoke with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week, after which the organisation shelved an already-produced video advert targeting El-Sayed.
The Democratic nominee has campaigned on Medicare for All, taxing billionaires, removing big money from politics and ending unconditional US aid to Israel. Rogers has not publicly detailed a current position on Palestinian statehood, though his congressional record included opposition to unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.
Despite Rogers being a staunchly pro-Israel Republican, the reported move by his campaign angered AIPAC officials, who had spent more than $30 million seeking to defeat El-Sayed in the Democratic primary and had prepared to spend millions more to help elect Rogers.
Citing people familiar with the discussions, Axios reported that Rogers’ aides had warned AIPAC before the Democratic primary that they believed El-Sayed would defeat moderate candidate Haley Stevens. The pro-Israel group nevertheless insisted on remaining involved, believing Stevens would win.
El-Sayed ultimately defeated Stevens by one percentage point, securing 48.5% of the vote compared with Stevens’ 47.5%.
AIPAC subsequently told Rogers’ allies that it wanted to continue its advertising campaign into the midterm election, which is scheduled for 3 November.
However, according to Axios, Rogers’ team believes AIPAC’s primary advertising had backfired by giving El-Sayed a prominent political target and that further involvement would remain detrimental to the Republican campaign.
Rogers’ allies also reportedly urged AIPAC to become involved without putting the organisation’s name at the forefront of its campaign, people familiar with the discussions told Axios.
AIPAC officials were reportedly dissatisfied with the proposal, however, as the organisation wanted a visible role in defeating El-Sayed.
They also argued that because Rogers is strongly pro-Israel, El-Sayed would link him to the pro-Israel lobby regardless.
During the primary campaign, El-Sayed made AIPAC’s spending a central focus of his criticism, arguing that it demonstrated Stevens was beholden to the pro-Israel lobby.
Axios reported that direct discussions between Rogers’ campaign and AIPAC have since stalled, prompting a wider Republican effort to mediate between the two sides.
Jewish Republican donors with connections to both camps are reportedly acting as intermediaries, according to people familiar with the discussions. The American outlet also reported that national Republicans have expressed concern that AIPAC could ultimately sit out the general election altogether.
Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project (USMEP), told The New Arab that he views the latest developments as "unprecedented" in terms of challenging AIPAC and Israel's public standing, particularly within the Republican Party.
The GOP has historically maintained a predominantly pro-Israel position, supported by evangelical Christians, conservative donors and party leadership.
However, generational divisions and the emergence of "America First" isolationist factions have fuelled internal debates over foreign aid and US intervention in support of Israel.
"First, the extent to which inside the Republican voting ecosystem, inside MAGA, Israel and AIPAC now have a public perception problem where the contestation between Israel First and America First is turning off some Republican voters," he told The New Arab. "The extent to which that will play out in electoral politics is untested."
Levy pointed to Rogers' reported call as a further indication of growing concerns, particularly given Michigan's demographics and sizeable Arab-American electorate.
"The other factor, which is at this stage more established, is that on the Democrat side, identification with Israel has gone from being unpopular with a significant cohort of voters to it seems becoming an issue which can actually mobilize and move votes—from a passive, ‘we think this way but we don't vote on it’, to an active vote mover," he told The New Arab.
Levy continued: "Therefore, what Rogers seems to be signalling is that he does not want to give oxygen to what was very effective in Abdul El-Sayed’s primary campaign, namely mobilizing voters angry at how this issue was being handled."
According to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey released this week, El-Sayed leads Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan’s closely watched open Senate race. Republicans currently hold a 53–45 majority in the Senate, excluding independent senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King.
Beyond Michigan, several progressive Democratic candidates have defeated opponents backed by AIPAC and its affiliated groups, as primary voters have increasingly pushed back against one of Washington’s most influential political organisations during this election cycle.
Hamid Bendaas, communications director of the IMEU Policy Project, said recent polling by the organisation in Michigan found "that not only do the vast majority of Democrats oppose AIPAC's agenda, but overwhelmingly so do Independents."
He added: "Abdul El-Sayed's message that he will stop using our tax dollars to pay for Israel's bombs and tanks, and instead invest in Michigan, is exactly what voters want to hear right now - and it's why AIPAC has opposed him with tens of millions of dollars since he first entered the race."