Is Lebanon's plan to disarm Palestinian factions in refugee camps 'half-baked'?

Palestinian factions are coordinating among themselves to prepare for the implementation of a fragile initiative that would see them relinquish their weapons to the Lebanese state, multiple sources told The New Arab.

"The ball is now in the Palestinians' court," a source close to the Lebanese presidency said, noting that "Palestinian factions broadly agree the proliferation of weapons in the camps has brought ruin, not protection, to their communities."

Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) Secretary Azzam Al-Ahmad arrived in Beirut on Sunday for a four-day visit to arrange meetings on the weapons handover and establish a timeline. His trip comes amid heightened tensions within Fatah and among other factions.

The PLO, led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is internationally recognised as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Fatah, also led by Abbas, is the largest faction within the PLO and the most influential among Palestinians in Lebanon.

According to Abu Iyad Al Shaalan, Fatah's regional commander in Lebanon, al-Ahmad's visit aims at "organising Fatah's house first" and briefing its leadership on the next phase of the agreement reached during Abbas' visit to Beirut last month.

For decades, arms in Palestinian camps—particularly Ain al-Hilweh and Rashidieh in southern Lebanon—have remained outside state control. Successive governments have lacked a coherent strategy to disarm the camps amid regional alliances and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But a turning point came in December when the Lebanese army, capitalising on the weakening influence of Iran-backed Hezbollah and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, seized strongholds of pro-Syrian factions in the Western Bekaa Valley.

That military shift laid the groundwork for US-backed talks between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Abbas during the latter's visit last month. The two agreed to establish a joint committee to oversee camp security and disarmament, affirming "exclusive state authority over all weapons."

The Lebanese Interior Ministry declined to comment on the talks, saying it was not involved at this stage. A source close to the presidency also said that discussions about using biometric cards to monitor camp entry and exit are premature—just like any potential commitments to improving Palestinians' living conditions.

The US Embassy in Beirut refused to discuss the sensitive matter, citing protocol restrictions.

Factional divisions emerge

While early reports downplayed intra-Palestinian discord as sabotage, sources close to Hamas, which holds sway in many southern camps, voiced deeper concerns.

"Mahmoud Abbas represents Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, not us," a Hamas official told TNA on condition of anonymity. The group warned against sidelining factions or advancing a perceived Palestinian "resettlement" in Lebanon, long opposed by refugees demanding the right of return to a future Palestinian state. Hamas, however, expressed willingness to engage in direct talks with Lebanon, particularly on weapons control and the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, "in ways that serve both sides' interests and contribute to overall stability."

Dissent is also growing within Fatah itself. Several officials told TNA that faction leaders were kept in the dark about Abbas' proposals, which were reportedly advanced by his son, Yasser Abbas, without internal consultation.

Other groups feel similarly marginalised.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command (PFLP-GC), which voluntarily handed over its Qousaya camp in the Western Bekaa to the Lebanese army after Assad's decline, expressed dismay at being excluded from current discussions.

The PFLP-GC remains a significant force in heavily armed camps such as Ain al-Hilweh, Al-Rashidieh, and Burj al-Barajneh in southern Beirut.

"The issue isn't just about PFLP-GC. Many smaller armed groups in Ain al-Hilweh must also be brought into the conversation," a central committee member of the PFLP-GC said. "Everyone is open to handing over weapons, but real participation in talks is essential."

Dr Ramzi Dhamshkiyyeh, head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, said plans are underway for a phased, "organised process" with a clear timeline, though specifics remain under negotiation.

A source close to the presidency said the first phase will act as a "rehearsal," focusing on the surrender of heavy arms—rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, and machine guns—in Beirut camps.

"If this phase goes smoothly, the process will extend to camps outside Beirut. The final and most complex phase involves disarmament in the southern camps, given their unique sensitivities," the source added.

Notably, the plan excludes personal firearms, which remain widespread in Lebanon and are viewed as self-defence tools in volatile camp environments.

Symbolism vs. Substance

Regional analysts welcomed the initiative but raised questions about its feasibility.

Retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, head of the Middle East Centre for Research and Studies, characterised Abbas' Beirut visit as "mostly symbolic," arguing that factions inside Lebanon do not take orders from the PA.

"This appears to be about handing over Fatah's weapons, not a comprehensive solution," he said. "If Abbas thinks he can neutralise rival factions this way, he's mistaken."

Calling the proposed mid-June timeline "more symbolic than realistic," Jaber noted that while Beirut camps host mainly light arms, the real challenge lies in Ain al-Hilweh—dominated by Hamas and rival militias.

"This is a half-baked solution," he said, urging Lebanon to consult with Arab powers that support Palestinian factions, such as Iran and Qatar.

Middle East analyst Sami Nader said the weapons have become a burden for Palestinians and a tool for outside powers.

"Israel uses them as pretexts for bombing. Iran uses them to extend its influence through Hezbollah," he said. "But now, internal, regional, and international conditions have aligned to potentially close this file—something that wasn't possible in previous decades."

Ghassan Ayyoub, a member of the PLO Executive Committee in Lebanon, told TNA that disarmament is part of a broader agenda that includes civil and social rights for Palestinians.

However, Ayyoub rejected any linkage between arms handover and humanitarian concessions.

"Lebanon must uphold fundamental rights like property ownership and employment regardless of disarmament," he said, arguing that discriminatory laws, not Palestinian behaviour, are the root issue.

As of February 2025, the UNRWA Lebanon Field Office reported 222,000 Palestinians residing in Lebanon since 1948, including 195,000 Lebanese-born and 27,000 displaced from Syria. The agency estimates that roughly 248,000 people rely on its services in Lebanon, with 45 per cent living in the country's 12 refugee camps.

"Humanitarian issues can't be used as bargaining chips," Ayyoub said.

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.