Lebanon's IMEC transport corridor bid sparks fears of indirect normalisation with Israel

Lebanon has formally expressed interest in joining the US-backed India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), sparking debate in the country over political implications, particularly given Israel's central role in the project and Lebanon's longstanding refusal to normalise ties.

President Joseph Aoun submitted a formal request on Wednesday to French President Emmanuel Macron to join the corridor, according to local media, with reports describing the development as "important" since Lebanon, due to political isolation, had been sidelined from major regional economic initiatives in recent years.

IMEC was announced at the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi as a Western-backed alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. The proposed trade route would link India to Europe via the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, before reaching European markets by sea.

In Beirut, Aoun recently discussed the initiative with French presidential envoy Gerard Mestrallet, with the Lebanese presidency stating that Beirut was ready to engage "within the framework of the initiative, in a way that serves its national interests and strengthens its logistical position in the region".

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has also ordered a comprehensive strategic study, backed by the World Bank, to assess how Lebanon's transport, energy and trade sectors could integrate with neighbouring states under the corridor framework.

However, several reports stated that Israel's geographic centrality to the corridor makes Lebanon's participation politically sensitive, particularly as Israel continues near-daily strikes on Lebanese territory and the two countries remain technically at war with no diplomatic ties.

Under the original IMEC blueprint, goods would travel from Gulf ports by rail through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa, then onward to Europe, with the Israeli port touted as the primary Mediterranean gateway in the plan.

The Al-Akhbar newspaper described Beirut's interest as "a step closer to Israel", framing the corridor as a geopolitical project aimed at consolidating Israel's economic integration into the region despite a widespread domestic opposition to normalisation.

The paper warned that joining IMEC could amount to indirect normalisation, particularly at a time when the Gaza genocide and Israel's ongoing occupation of Lebanon had complicated regional diplomacy and hardened public opinion against engagement with Israel.

Yeghia Tashjian, Regional and International Affairs Cluster Coordinator at the American University of Beirut's Issam Fares Institute, said that IMEC reflects a broader US strategy to reshape the region's geo-economic order by positioning pro-Western states, particularly Gulf monarchies and Israel, as strategic transit hubs.

"The corridor's success depends on political cooperation, including normalisation between Israel and Arab states, and stable security conditions," he noted.

Tashjian added that while the Gaza conflict had disrupted aspects of the project, "it is now back on the table".

Saudi Arabia's participation remains pivotal, and while Riyadh had signed the original memorandum of understanding, it has publicly linked broader economic normalisation with Israel to a just political solution for Palestinians.

What role for Beirut in IMEC?

Some Lebanese entrepreneurs estimate that integration into IMEC could generate between $4 billion and $5 billion in annual revenue and create thousands of jobs over an eight to ten-year implementation period.

Yet questions remain over whether Lebanese ports such as Beirut and Tripoli would play anything more than a secondary role if Haifa remains the primary transit node, raising concerns that Lebanon could end up economically dependent on a corridor centred on a state it considers an enemy.

Parallel discussions have also emerged regarding expanded French involvement in developing maritime and land connectivity projects in Lebanon and Syria, including potential roles for shipping giant CMA CGM.

At the same time, local political sources have raised concerns about reported US pressure linking future energy cooperation and offshore gas exploration to Lebanon's alignment with regional energy networks that include Israel, Cyprus and Greece, further blurring the line between economic coordination and political normalisation.