As negotiations between Israel and Hamas seemingly collapsed in Doha, Israeli officials in Tel Aviv revived a plan to potential annexation of parts of the Gaza Strip.
Yesterday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is "closer than ever" to reoccupying and recolonising the besieged coastal enclave.
And on Monday, Israeli media outlets revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently presented a phased plan to his security cabinet that would allow Israel to gradually assert control over parts of Gaza, particularly the northern and eastern areas, which have been heavily depopulated by war.
The idea, floated in tandem with threats to escalate military operations if Hamas does not soon agree to a ceasefire, reflects a broader strategic shift among Israel's far-right leadership: to reshape Gaza's geography and demography through violence.
Israel's threats met with alarm by Palestinians and analysts alike, who warn of a looming scenario of mass displacement and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians under the cover of war.
Officially, the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that Israel's plan to gradually annex parts of Gaza.
In a press statement, it said that Israel's plan aims to forcibly displace its population and undermine Palestinian statehood, describing it as part of a wider "genocidal and colonial agenda." It urged urgent international intervention.
Meanwhile, Hamas condemned what it called Israel's "genocide and starvation" campaign, urging global protests and UN action.
Bargaining chip or tactical advance?
While some Israeli analysts interpret these moves as little more than pressure tactics to wring concessions from Hamas, Palestinian political observers believe that the real danger lies in their potential to evolve from rhetorical threats into operational doctrine.
Speaking to The New Arab, the Palestinian analysts say that "the Israeli annexation plan closely mirrors Israel's longstanding strategy in Gaza [as it did in the occupied West Bank] by annexing large swathes of land with minimal Palestinian presence to avoid international scrutiny."
"These are not just words […] Smotrich and others are testing the waters—probing how far they can go without triggering significant international backlash. If there's no serious response, this could very well become the next phase of Israeli policy in Gaza," Hani al-Masri, director of the Palestinian Centre for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (Masarat) in Ramallah, told TNA.
Al-Masri said that the areas earmarked for annexation, northern and eastern Gaza, have seen mass evacuations under Israel's bombardment campaign.
"The Israeli army has created zones of destruction and displacement. Now, the Israeli leaders are suggesting filling that vacuum with permanent Israeli control," he added.
According to the Israeli Haaretz, Netanyahu's plan involves annexing territory under the guise of "security zones," initially managed by the Israeli military and eventually opened for settlement.
This could allow Israel to claim de facto sovereignty without formally declaring full occupation much like the tactics used to expand settlements in the West Bank.
"This isn't about short-term military gains. It's about shaping Gaza's future map in ways that make any return of displaced Palestinians more difficult and any future Palestinian state less viable," he added.
What is Gaza's future?
For Ahed Ferwana, a Gaza-based political analyst, told TNA that "the Israeli plan has been [clear] since the war's earliest days."
"Israel's entire approach since October has been to make Gaza unliveable," he says. "From targeting water infrastructure to blocking aid and indiscriminately bombing civilian areas and this is about pushing people to leave voluntarily or forcing them to stay under unbearable conditions."
Ferwana believes the annexation threats serve multiple purposes: to pressure Hamas into accepting an unfavorable truce, to pacify the demands of Israel's far-right coalition, and to lay the groundwork for a new status quo in Gaza.
"Netanyahu's government doesn't merely want to defeat Hamas, it wants to fundamentally alter Gaza's geography and population density," he said.
Smotrich and [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir have made no secret of their desire to rebuild settlements in Gaza. And without international deterrence, there's little to stop them from trying.
Recent satellite images analysed by independent watchdogs appear to show increased Israeli military entrenchment in the targeted areas, lending credence to fears that these annexation proposals are more than just theoretical.
For Esmat Mansour, a Ramallah-based Palestinian political analyst, the annexation threat marks a dangerous escalation of Israel's use of the negotiation process as leverage; one where the humanitarian fate of over two million people is held hostage to political calculations.
"What's happening now is not diplomacy. It's blackmail, plain and simple. Israel is not negotiating in good faith. It is offering a deal Hamas cannot accept then blaming Hamas for the continued war," Mansour told TNA.
According to Mansour, Hamas faces a bleak dilemma. "If they accept the current ceasefire proposal, it will be seen by their base as a surrender. But if they reject it, Israel uses that rejection as justification to continue its operations and now possibly annex territory."
Mansour fears that such a zero-sum game will only accelerate the breakdown of negotiations. "We are in a dangerous moment. Without immediate intervention from mediators like Egypt and Qatar, the window for a political resolution is closing. If this spiral continues, we may soon see the imposition of a military administration over Gaza or worse, full occupation," he stressed.
The Israeli escalation in violence also comes amid Washington's continued ambiguity. In general, U.S. officials have criticized Israel's conduct but stopped short of applying meaningful pressure to halt its military or territorial ambitions.
"The US has signalled that it wants a ceasefire, but it has not clarified what price Israel is expected to pay for it. This ambiguity is what emboldens the far-right to keep pushing," Mansour said.
With truce talks in a deadlock and the humanitarian crisis worsening by the hour, political observers now warn of Israel imposing a new fait accompli on Gaza, one in which Palestinians are corralled into "humanitarian zones" in the southern part of the Strip, while vast areas of the east and south are absorbed into a de facto Israeli buffer.
According to Ferwana, the so-called "humanitarian islands" being floated in Israeli media are a smokescreen for a slow-motion annexation.
"They are trying to sell this as a humanitarian solution, but the reality is the opposite. You are taking two million people and cramming them into 20 per cent of the territory. That's not a solution. It is a siege," he said.
"Time is running out, not just for Gaza, but for any hope of a just resolution. We are watching, in real time, the dismantling of the Palestinian project in Gaza. The world must decide whether it will stand by or intervene before it’s too late," he added.